Reliable, comparable information about the main causes of disease and injury in populations, and how these are changing, is a critical input for debates about priorities in the health sector. Traditional sources of information about the descriptive epidemiology of diseases, injuries, and risk factors are generally incomplete, fragmented, and of uncertain reliability and comparability. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study has provided a conceptual and methodological framework to quantify and compare the health of populations using a summary measure of both mortality and disability, the disability-adjusted life year (DALY). This article describes key features of the Global Burden of Disease analytic approach, the evolution of the GBD starting from the first study for the year 1990, and summarizes the methodological improvements incorporated into GBD revisions carried out by the World Health Organization. It also reviews controversies and criticisms, and examines priorities and issues for future GBD updates.

Global Burden of Disease

Statistical physics of vaccination

Forty years after effective vaccines were licensed, measles continues to cause death and severe disease in children worldwide. Complications from measles can occur in almost every organ system. Pneumonia, croup, and encephalitis are common causes of death; encephalitis is the most common cause of long-term sequelae. Measles remains a common cause of blindness in developing countries. Complication rates are higher in those 20 years old, although croup and otitis media are more common in those <2 years old and encephalitis in older children and adults. Complication rates are increased by immune deficiency disorders, malnutrition, vitamin A deficiency, intense exposures to measles, and lack of previous measles vaccination. Case-fatality rates have decreased with improvements in socioeconomic status in many countries but remain high in developing countries.

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The Clinical Significance of Measles: A Review

Background: Effective national and global HIV responses require a significant expansion of HIV testing and counselling (HTC) to expand access to prevention and care. Facility-based HTC, while essential, is unlikely to meet national and global targets on its own. This article systematically reviews the evidence for community-based HTC. first-time testers (RR 1.23, 95% CI 1.06-1.42), and the proportion of participants with CD4 counts above 350 cells/ml (RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.16-1.74), and obtained a lower positivity rate (RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.37-0.96), relative to facility-based approaches. 80% (95% CI 75%-85%) of 5,832 community-based HTC participants obtained a CD4 measurement following HIV diagnosis, and 73% (95% CI 61%-85%) of 527 community-based HTC participants initiated antiretroviral therapy following a CD4 measurement indicating eligibility. The data on linking participants without HIV to prevention services were limited. In low- and middle-income countries, the cost per person tested ranged from US$2-US$126. At the population level, community- based HTC increased HTC coverage (RR 7.07, 95% CI 3.52-14.22) and reduced HIV incidence (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.73-1.02), although the incidence reduction lacked statistical significance. No studies reported any harm arising as a result of having been tested. Conclusions: Community-based HTC achieved high rates of HTC uptake, reached people with high CD4 counts, and linked people to care. It also obtained a lower HIV positivity rate relative to facility-based approaches. Further research is needed to further improve acceptability of community-based HTC for key populations. HIV programmes should offer community- based HTC linked to prevention and care, in addition to facility-based HTC, to support increased access to HIV prevention, care, and treatment. Review Registration: International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews CRD42012002554 Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

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Towards Universal Voluntary HIV Testing and Counselling: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Community-Based Approaches

Poliomyelitis has appeared in epidemic form, become endemic on a global scale, and been reduced to near-elimination, all within the span of documented medical history. Epidemics of the disease appeared in the late 19th century in many European countries and North America, following which polio became a global disease with annual epidemics. During the period of its epidemicity, 1900-1950, the age distribution of poliomyelitis cases increased gradually. Beginning in 1955, the creation of poliovirus vaccines led to a stepwise reduction in poliomyelitis, culminating in the unpredicted elimination of wild polioviruses in the United States by 1972. Global expansion of polio immunization resulted in a reduction of paralytic disease from an estimated annual prevaccine level of at least 600,000 cases to fewer than 1,000 cases in 2000. Indigenous wild type 2 poliovirus was eradicated in 1999, but unbroken localized circulation of poliovirus types 1 and 3 continues in 4 countries in Asia and Africa. Current challenges to the final eradication of paralytic poliomyelitis include the continued transmission of wild polioviruses in endemic reservoirs, reinfection of polio-free areas, outbreaks due to circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses, and persistent excretion of vaccine-derived poliovirus by a few vaccinees with B-cell immunodeficiencies. Beyond the current efforts to eradicate the last remaining wild polioviruses, global eradication efforts must safely navigate through an unprecedented series of endgame challenges to assure the permanent cessation of all human poliovirus infections.

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From Emergence to Eradication: The Epidemiology of Poliomyelitis Deconstructed

The strategy currently used to control measles in most countries has been to immunize each successive birth cohort through the routine health services delivery system. While measles vaccine coverage has increased markedly, significant measles outbreaks have continued to recur. During the past 5 years, experience in the Americas suggests that measles transmission has been interrupted in a number of countries (Cuba, Chile, and countries in the English-speaking Caribbean and successfully controlled in all remaining countries. Since 1991 these countries have implemented one-time "catch-up" vaccination campaigns (conducted during a short period, usually 1 week to 1 month, and targeting all children 9 months through 14 years of age, regardless of previous vaccination status or measles disease history). These campaigns have been followed by improvements in routine vaccination services and in surveillance systems, so that the progress of the measles elimination efforts can be sustained and monitored. Follow-up mass vaccination campaigns for children younger than 5 years are planned to take place every 3 to 5 years. ( JAMA . 1996;275:224-229)

https://jamanetwork.com/HttpHandlers/ArticlePdfHandler.ashx?journal=JAMA&articleId=394542&pdfFileName=jama_275_3_033.pdf

Measles Elimination in the Americas: Evolving Strategies

Review of regional measles surveillance data in the Americas, 1996-99.

In 1994, the Ministers of Health from the Region of the Americas targeted measles for eradication from the Western Hemisphere by the year 2000. To achieve this goal, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) developed an enhanced measles eradication strategy. First, a one-time-only "catch-up" measles vaccination campaign is conducted among children aged 9 months to 14 years. Efforts are then made to vaccinate through routine health services ("keep-up") at least 95% of each newborn cohort at 12 months of age. Finally, to assure high population immunity among preschool-aged children, indiscriminate "follow-up" measles vaccination campaigns are conducted approximately every 4 years. These vaccination activities are accompanied by improvements in measles surveillance, including the laboratory testing of suspected measles cases. The implementation of the PAHO strategy has resulted in a marked reduction in measles incidence in all countries of the Americas. Indeed, in 1996 the all-time regional record low of 2109 measles cases was reported. There was a relative resurgence of measles in 1997 with over 20,000 cases, due to a large measles outbreak among infants, preschool-aged children and young adults in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Contributing factors for this outbreak included: low routine infant vaccination coverage, failure to conduct a "follow-up" campaign, presence of susceptible young adults, and the importation of measles virus, apparently from Europe. PAHO's strategy has been effective in interrupting measles virus circulation. This experience demonstrates that global measles eradication is an achievable goal using currently available measles vaccines.

Measles eradication: experience in the Americas.

In May 1985, the Pan American Health Organization proposed the goal of interruption of wild poliovirus transmission in the Western Hemisphere. An important component of the polio eradication strategy was conducting surveillance for cases of acute flaccid paralysis. Reported cases were thoroughly investigated, including the collection of stool samples for testing for the presence of wild poliovirus. The last patient with poliomyelitis due to wild poliovirus in the Americas had onset of paralysis on 23 August 1991 in Peru. Since then, >9000 cases of acute flaccid paralysis have been reported and thoroughly investigated; none has been confirmed as paralytic poliomyelitis due to wild poliovirus. On 29 September 1994, the International Commission for the Certification of Poliomyelitis Eradication declared the Americas to be polio-free.

Eradication of Wild Poliovirus from the Americas: Acute Flaccid Paralysis Surveillance, 1988–1995

Rubella is a viral disease with minor morbidity and few complications unless it is contracted by a pregnant woman. Rubella infection during the first trimester of pregnancy often leads to fetal death or severe congenital defects (congenital rubella syndrome, CRS). Rubella remains endemic in many countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. It has been estimated that 20000 or more infants are perhaps born with CRS each year in Latin American and Caribbean countries. While the inclusion of rubella vaccination into routine childhood immunization will decrease rubella virus circulation among young children, it will not have immediate impact on the transmission of rubella among adults or the occurrence of CRS. A one-time mass campaign targeting both males and females 5 to 39 years of age with measles-mumps-rubella or measles-rubella vaccine followed by the use of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine in routine early childhood vaccination will prevent and control both rubella and CRS promptly. In April 1988, the Ministers of Health of the English-speaking Caribbean targeted rubella for elimination by the end of the year 2000 using the vaccination strategy outlined above. The rubella elimination experience of these countries will provide useful information for the eventual elimination of rubella virus from the Americas.

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Bradley S. Hersh

Papers

Measles Elimination in the Americas: Evolving Strategies

Review of regional measles surveillance data in the Americas, 1996-99.

Measles eradication: experience in the Americas.

Eradication of Wild Poliovirus from the Americas: Acute Flaccid Paralysis Surveillance, 1988–1995

Rational use of rubella vaccine for prevention of congenital rubella syndrome in the Americas