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Using Multivariate Statistics

One of the most perplexing problems in risk analysis is why some relatively minor risks or risk events, as assessed by technical experts, often elicit strong public concerns and result in substantial impacts upon society and economy. This article sets forth a conceptual framework that seeks to link systematically the technical assessment of risk with psychological, sociological, and cultural perspectives of risk perception and risk-related behavior. The main thesis is that hazards interact with psychological, social, institutional, and cultural processes in ways that may amplify or attenuate public responses to the risk or risk event. A structural description of the social amplification of risk is now possible. Amplification occurs at two stages: in the transfer of information about the risk, and in the response mechanisms of society. Signals about risk are processed by individual and social amplification stations, including the scientist who communicates the risk assessment, the news media, cultural groups, interpersonal networks, and others. Key steps of amplifications can be identified at each stage. The amplified risk leads to behavioral responses, which, in turn, result in secondary impacts. Models are presented that portray the elements and linkages in the proposed conceptual framework.

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The Social Amplification of Risk: A Conceptual Framework

There is a growing call for greater public involvement in establishing science and technology policy, in line with democratic ideals. A variety of public participation procedures exist that aim to consult and involve the public, ranging from the public hearing to the consensus conference. Unfortunately, a general lack of empirical consideration of the quality of these methods arises from confusion as to the appropriate benchmarks for evaluation. Given that the quality of the output of any participation exercise is difficult to determine, the authors suggest the need to consider which aspects of the process are desirable and then to measure the presence or quality of these process aspects. To this end, a number of theoretical evaluation criteria that are essential for effective public participation are specified. These comprise two types: acceptance criteria, which concern features of a method that make it acceptable to the wider public, and process criteria, which concern features of the process that are ...

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Public Participation Methods: A Framework for Evaluation:

Disasters by Design provides an alternative and sustainable way to view, study, and manage hazards in the United States that would result in disaster-resilient communities, higher environmental quality, inter- and intragenerational equity, economic sustainability, and improved quality of life. This volume provides an overview of what is known about natural hazards, disasters, recovery, and mitigation, how research findings have been translated into policies and programs; and a sustainable hazard mitigation research agenda. Also provided is an examination of past disaster losses and hazards management over the past 20 years, including factors--demographic, climate, social--that influence loss. This volume summarizes and sets the stage for the more detailed books in the series.

Disasters by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States

Male circumcision for HIV prevention in young men in Kisumu, Kenya : a randomised controlled trial. Commentary

Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach

This article introduces a novel model of public particpation in political decisions. Structured in three consecutive steps, the model is based on the view that stakeholders, experts, and citizens should each contribute to the planning effort their particular expertise and experience. Stakeholders are valuable resources for eliciting concerns and developing evaluative criteria since their interests are at stake and they have already made attempts to structure and approach the issue. Experts are necessary to provide the data base and the functional relationships between options and impacts. Citizens are the potential victims and benefactors of proposed planning measures; they are the best judges to evaluate the different options available on the basis of the concerns and impacts revealed through the other two groups. The three-step model has been developed and frequently applied as a planning tool in West Germany. We compare this experience with the model's first application in the United States, and conclude that the three-step procedure offers a limited, but promising future for democratizing policy making in the United States.

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Public participation in decision making: A three-step procedure

Some analysts suggest that discussing uncertainties in health risk assessments might reduce citizens' perceptions of risk and increase their respect for the risk-assessing agency. We tested this assumption with simulated news stories varying simple displays of uncertainty (e.g., a range of risk estimates, with and without graphics). Subjects from Eugene, Oregon, read one story each, and then answered a questionnaire. Three studies tested between 180 and 272 subjects each. Two focus groups obtained more detailed responses to these stories. The results suggested that (1) people are unfamiliar with uncertainty in risk assessments and in science; (2) people may recognize uncertainty when it is presented simply; (3) graphics may help people recognize uncertainty; (4) reactions to the environmental problems in the stories seemed affected less by presentation of uncertainty than by general risk attitudes and perceptions; (5) agency discussion of uncertainty in risk estimates may signal agency honesty and agency incompetence for some people; and (6) people seem to see lower risk estimates (10(-6), as opposed to 10(-3)) as less credible. These findings, if confirmed, would have important implications for risk communication.

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Presenting uncertainty in health risk assessment: initial studies of its effects on risk perception and trust.

The Social and Cultural Construction of Risk

Linked to the belief that trust affects public responses to hazard management is the question of reasons for this trust or distrust. The scanty research on this topic is poorly designed and tends not to examine the rationales of citizens themselves. A classification of potential reasons under the rubrics of 'competence,' 'care' and 'consensual values' points up the strengths, limitations, and inconsistencies in suggested explanations, and raises the question of whether trust is one- or multidimensional. This discussion aims to provide a foundation for better specification of terms and hypotheses in designing research on trust and its constituents.

Branden B. Johnson

Papers

Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach

Public participation in decision making: A three-step procedure

Presenting uncertainty in health risk assessment: initial studies of its effects on risk perception and trust.

The Social and Cultural Construction of Risk

Exploring dimensionality in the origins of hazard-related trust