We investigate conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables. First we show that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify any meaningful average treatment effect. We then establish that the combination of an instrument and a condition on the relation between the instrument and the participation status is sufficient for identification of a local average treatment effect for those who can be induced to change their participation status by changing the value of the instrument. Finally we derive the probability limit of the standard IV estimator under these conditions. It is seen to be a weighted average of local average treatment effects.

Evolution and Rationality Some Recent Game-Theoretic Results. Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects

Acknowledgments vii Preface xiii Chapter 1. Educational Attainment: Overall Trends, Disparities, and the Public Universities We Study 1 Chapter 2. Bachelor's Degree Attainment on a National Level 20 Chapter 3. Finishing College at Public Universities 32 Chapter 4. Fields of Study, Time-to-Degree, and College Grades 57 Chapter 5. High Schools and "Undermatching" 87 Chapter 6. Test Scores and High School Grades as Predictors 112 Chapter 7. Transfer Students and the Path from Two-Year to Four-Year Colleges 134 Chapter 8. Financial Aid and Pricing on a National Level 149 Chapter 9. Financial Aid at Public Universities 166 Chapter 10. Institutional Selectivity and Institutional Effects 192 Chapter 11. Target Populations 207 Chapter 12. Looking Ahead 223 Appendix A. The Modern Evolution of America's Flagship Universities by Eugene M. Tobin 239 Notes 265 List of Figures 337 List of Tables 347 List of Appendix Tables 349 References 357 Index 377

Crossing the Finish Line:: Completing College at America’s Public Universities (Association for Institutional Research, May 30, 2010)

Individuals with strong self-regulated learning (SRL) skills, characterized by the ability to plan, manage and control their learning process, can learn faster and outperform those with weaker SRL skills. SRL is critical in learning environments that provide low levels of support and guidance, as is commonly the case in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). Learners can be trained to engage in SRL and actively supported with prompts and activities. However, effective implementation of learner support systems in MOOCs requires an understanding of which SRL strategies are most effective and how these strategies manifest in online behavior. Moreover, identifying learner characteristics that are predictive of weaker SRL skills can advance efforts to provide targeted support without obtrusive survey instruments. We investigated SRL in a sample of 4,831 learners across six MOOCs based on individual records of overall course achievement, interactions with course content, and survey responses. We found that goal setting and strategic planning predicted attainment of personal course goals, while help seeking was associated with lower goal attainment. Learners with stronger SRL skills were more likely to revisit previously studied course materials, especially course assessments. Several learner characteristics, including demographics and motivation, predicted learners' SRL skills. We discuss implications for theory and the development of learning environments that provide adaptive support. Goal setting and strategic planning positively predict goal attainment in MOOCs.Help seeking negatively predicts goal attainment, e.g., earning a certificate.Self-reported SRL strategies manifest behaviorally in revisiting course content.Learner characteristics (demographics, motivation, etc.) predict self-reported SRL.

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Self-regulated learning strategies predict learner behavior and goal attainment in Massive Open Online Courses

College Choices: The Economics of Where to Go, When to Go, and How to Pay For It

As the workforce has become more educated, educational decisions are about what type of education to pursue as well as how much to pursue. In college, individuals somewhat specialize through their choice of college major. Further specialization occurs in graduate school. This chapter investigates how majors and graduate school affect labor market outcomes, as well as how individuals make these potentially important decisions. To do so, we develop a dynamic model of educational decision-making. In light of the model, we examine the estimation issues associated with obtaining causal effects of educational choices on earnings. We then examine ways that authors have overcome the selection problem, as well as the approaches authors have taken to estimate the process by which these educational decisions are made.

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The Analysis of Field Choice in College and Graduate School: Determinants and Wage Effects

Colleges rely on the ACT exam in their admission decisions to increase their ability to differentiate between students likely to succeed and those that have a high risk of under-performing and dropping out. We show that two of the four sub tests of the ACT, English and Mathematics, are highly predictive of positive college outcomes while the other two subtests, Science and Reading, provide little or no additional predictive power. This result is robust across various samples, specifications, and outcome measures. We demonstrate that focusing solely on the English and Mathematics test scores greatly enhances the predictive validity of the ACT exam.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/nber_w17119.pdf?abstractid=1866081

Improving College Performance and Retention the Easy Way: Unpacking the Act Exam

Pre‐college advising programs exist in most disadvantaged high schools throughout the United States. These programs supplement traditional advising by high school guidance counselors and attempt to help underrepresented and disadvantaged students overcome the complexities of the postsecondary admission and financial aid processes. Existing evidence on these programs often uses within‐school randomization where spillovers and alternative supports may confound estimates. We provide the first evidence on a whole school intervention resulting from a school‐level randomized controlled trial in the United States. The college access program we study uses a near‐peer model where a recent college graduate works at the school assisting students in the application and enrollment process. Pooled results across the first three years of program implementation find no significant impacts on overall college enrollment. However, subgroup analyses reveal positive, significant effects among the groups most targeted by the intervention: Hispanic and low‐income students. Most of the impact comes through increasing two‐year college enrollment, but this appears to be new entrants rather than inducing students to move from four‐year to two‐year colleges. The observed positive effects for these subgroups attenuate over time. We attribute this drop in the estimated impact to departures in fidelity of the experiment. Even among the cohorts for which we find positive enrollment impacts, we find no significant impacts on college persistence.

/pdf/college-guidance-for-all-a-randomized-experiment-in-pre-1mm6fezggw.pdf

College Guidance for All: A Randomized Experiment in Pre-College Advising.

Massive open online courses (MOOCs) are marketed as opportunities for participants to improve their labor market outcomes, and tens of thousands of students have paid for career-focused MOOC certif...

/pdf/do-moocs-make-you-more-marketable-an-experimental-analysis-15d7xwjyip.pdf

Do MOOCs Make You More Marketable? An Experimental Analysis of the Value of MOOCs Relative to Traditional Credentials and Experience:

Recent advances in computational linguistics and the social sciences have created new opportunities for the education research community to analyze relevant large-scale text data. However, ...

Brent J. Evans

Papers

Improving College Performance and Retention the Easy Way: Unpacking the Act Exam

College Guidance for All: A Randomized Experiment in Pre-College Advising.

Do MOOCs Make You More Marketable? An Experimental Analysis of the Value of MOOCs Relative to Traditional Credentials and Experience:

Text as Data Methods for Education Research

Monetary substitution of loans, earnings, and need-based aid in postsecondary education: The impact of Pell Grant eligibility