2 1 The innovative transport systems and the CityMobil project 10 1.1 The research questions 10 2 The state of art in the field of automatic transport systems 12 2.1 Case studies and demand studies for innovative transport systems 12 3 The design and implementation of surveys 14 3.1 Definition of experimental design 14 3.2 Questionnaire design and delivery 16 3.3 First analyses on the collected sample 18 4 Calibration of Logit Multionomial demand models 21 4.1 Methodology 21 4.2 Calibration of the “full” model. 22 4.3 Calibration of the “final” model 24 4.4 The demand analysis through the final Multinomial Logit model 25 5 The analysis of interaction between the demand and socioeconomic attributes 31 5.1 Methodology 31 5.2 Application of Mixed Logit models to the demand 31 5.3 Analysis of the interactions between demand and socioeconomic attributes through Mixed Logit models 32 5.4 Mixed Logit model and interaction between age and the demand for the CTS 38 5.5 Demand analysis with Mixed Logit model 39 6 Final analyses and conclusions 45 6.1 Comparison between the results of the analyses 45 6.2 Conclusions 48 6.3 Answers to the research questions and future developments 52

The European commission

It has frequently been suggested that exceptionally large youth cohorts, the so-called “youth bulges,” make countries more susceptible to political violence. Within two prominent theoretical frameworks in the study of civil war, youth bulges are argued to potentially increase both opportunities and motives for political violence. This claim is empirically tested in a time-series cross-national statistical model for internal armed conflict for the period 1950–2000, and for event data for terrorism and rioting for the years 1984–1995. The expectation that youth bulges should increase the risk of political violence receives robust support for all three forms of violence. The results are consistent both with an expectation that youth bulges provide greater opportunities for violence through the abundant supply of youths with low opportunity costs, and with an expectation that stronger motives for violence may arise as youth bulges are more likely to experience institutional crowding, in particular unemployment. Some contextual factors have been suggested to potentially enhance the effect of youth bulges. In an empirical test of these propositions, the study suggests that youth bulges are particularly associated with an increasing risk of internal armed conflict in starkly autocratic regimes, but a similar effect is also found for highly democratic countries. The interaction of youth bulges with economic decline and expansion in higher education appear to increase the risk of terrorism but not of rioting. Recent studies in economic demography find that when fertility is sharply decreasing, causing lower dependency ratios, large youth cohorts entering the labor market may lead to economic boosts. This study finds some empirical evidence complementing these results, indicating that the effect of youth bulges on political violence may decline along with reduced dependency ratios.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/info/4092795

A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence

Radicalisation, De-Radicalisation, Counter-Radicalisation: A Conceptual Discussion and Literature Review

Hegghammer, Thomas. 
Should I Stay or Should I Go? Explaining Variation in Western Jihadists' Choice between Domestic and Foreign Fighting. American Political Science Review 2013 ;Volum 107.(1) s. 1-15

https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0003055412000615

Should I Stay or Should I Go? Explaining Variation in Western Jihadists’ Choice between Domestic and Foreign Fighting

This article attempts to consolidate theorizing about the radicalization of Western homegrown jihadists. Five major models of radicalization are reviewed. The commonalities and discrepancies among these models are identified and analyzed in the context of empirical evidence in the field of terrorism research and social psychology. Three psychological factors emerge as contributors to radicalization: group relative deprivation, identity conflicts, and personality characteristics. Avenues for future research concerning the radicalization of homegrown jihadists are suggested, focusing on research that may not only be practical for counter-terrorism, but also feasible given the challenges of research with radicalized individuals.

The Radicalization of Homegrown Jihadists: A Review of Theoretical Models and Social Psychological Evidence

Contents PART I: The Formation of a Community 1928-1931 Hasan al-Banna and the Birth of the Society of the Muslim Brothers PART II: From Community to Movement 1931-1936 To Make a Vision Come True Charismatic Leadership, Organization and Social Works Round Trips, Networks and Patronage PART III: The Rise of a Mass Movement 1936-1942 Expansion The Making of a Class of Cadres An Ideological-Political Party Political Activism and Radicalism

The Society of the Muslim Brothers in Egypt: The Rise of an Islamic Mass Movement 1928-1942

With more than 35 years experience of jihadist activism, Abu Mus'ab al-Suri remains the foremost theoretician in the global jihadist movement today, despite his capture in Pakistan in late 2005 After having participated in the founding of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan in 1988, al-Suri, whose real name is Mustafa Sethmarian Nasar, trained a whole generation of young jihadis at his camps in Afghanistan When he moved back to Spain in the early 1990s, al-Suri took part in establishing Al-Qaeda networks in Europe In the mid-1990s, he rose to prominence in jihadi circles as editor of the London-based bulletin of the Algerian Groupe Islamique Armee, the most deadly Islamist terrorist group operating in Europe at the time Al-Suri later formed his own media centre and training camp in Taleban-ruled Afghanistan, to which he returned in 1998 Building on his extensive military experience from the Syrian Islamist insurgency in the early 1980s, he contributed decisively to formulating Al-Qaeda's global warfare strategy Throughout his writings there is a desire to learn from past mistakes and rectify the course of the jihadi movement His 1,600 page masterpiece, "The Global Islamic Resistance Call", outlines a broad strategy for the coming generation of Al-Qaeda, with a keen eye for the practical implementation of jihadi guerrilla warfare theories His ideas of how to maximise the political impact of jihadi violence and how to build autonomous cells for 'individualised terrorism' have inspired many jihadi militants of today The book includes a translation of two key chapters from al-Suri's seminal work "The Global Islamic Resistance Call"

Architect of Global Jihad: The Life of Al-Qaida Strategist Abu Mus'ab Al-Suri

1. Introduction 2. Causes of Terrorism 3. International Relations in the Future 4. The Global Market Economy 5. The Demographic Factor 6. Ideological Shifts 7. Our Technological Future 8. Conclusion

Globalisation and the Future of Terrorism: Patterns and Predictions

Nesser, Petter; Lia, Brynjar. 
Jihadism in Norway: a Typology of Militant Networks in a Peripheral European Country. Perspectives on Terrorism 2016 ;Volum 10.(6) s. 121-134

Jihadism in Norway: a Typology of Militant Networks in a Peripheral European Country

This article analyzes an Al Qaida strategy document about Iraq that received considerable attention after the Madrid bombings because of its references to the Spanish elections. The current article discusses the origin, content, and significance of the document and argues that it represents a hitherto unidentified genre in radical Islamist literature, namely "jihadi strategic studies." The text, which is secular in style, analytical in its approach, and pragmatic in its conclusions, displays a level of political awareness that breaks with most preconceptions about religious fundamentalist thought. Moreover, it dispels the myth of a unified and coherent "Al Qaida ideology."‐

Brynjar Lia

Papers

The Society of the Muslim Brothers in Egypt: The Rise of an Islamic Mass Movement 1928-1942

Architect of Global Jihad: The Life of Al-Qaida Strategist Abu Mus'ab Al-Suri

Globalisation and the Future of Terrorism: Patterns and Predictions

Jihadism in Norway: a Typology of Militant Networks in a Peripheral European Country

Jihadi Strategic Studies: The Alleged Al Qaida Policy Study Preceding the Madrid Bombings