计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w10471/w10471.pdf

Corporate Tax Avoidance and High Powered Incentives

Using a large sample of U.S. firms for the period 1995-2008, we provide strong and robust evidence that corporate tax avoidance is positively associated with firm-specific stock price crash risk. This finding is consistent with the following view: Tax avoidance facilitates managerial rent extraction and bad news hoarding activities for extended periods by providing tools, masks, and justifications for these opportunistic behaviors. The hoarding and accumulation of bad news for extended periods lead to stock price crashes when the accumulated hidden bad news crosses a tipping point, and thus comes out all at once. Moreover, we show that the positive relation between tax avoidance and crash risk is attenuated when firms have strong external monitoring mechanisms such as high institutional ownership, high analyst coverage, and greater takeover threat from corporate control markets.

Corporate Tax Avoidance and Stock Price Crash Risk: Firm-Level Analysis

Human senescence has been delayed by a decade. This finding, documented in 1994 and bolstered since, is a fundamental discovery about the biology of human ageing, and one with profound implications for individuals, society and the economy. Remarkably, the rate of deterioration with age seems to be constant across individuals and over time: it seems that death is being delayed because people are reaching old age in better health. Research by demographers, epidemiologists and other biomedical researchers suggests that further progress is likely to be made in advancing the frontier of survival — and healthy survival — to even greater ages.

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Biodemography of human ageing.

Using recent survey data from the Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD) on 1,655 married persons born in 1964-1976 in southeastern China and Taiwan, we studied coresidence with elderly parents using a multinomial probit model for coresidence type and an ordered probit model for residential distance The study yielded four findings: (a) Patrilocal coresidence was more prevalent in Taiwan than in China; (b) matrilocal coresidence was more prevalent in China; (c) practical factors mattered in both places; (d) in Taiwan only, a couple's economic resources facilitated breaking away from patrilocal coresidence The findings suggest that, although economic development does not necessarily result in less traditional familial culture, personal economic resources may enable individual couples to deviate from tradition

/pdf/coresidence-with-elderly-parents-a-comparative-study-of-4rliew9x88.pdf

Coresidence With Elderly Parents: A Comparative Study of Southeast China and Taiwan

Historians have long noticed that population declines in ancient China often coincided with dynasty changes, and that most of these declines were the result of internecine wars which, in turn, were often initiated by famine or density pressure. Since the interactions between density pressure, internecine wars, and dynasty changes cannot be explained by the traditional age-specific density-dependent population structure, we propose to use a bandit/peasant/ruler occupation-specific population model to interpret the dynamic socio-economic transitions of ancient Chinese population, and provide econometric support to our model. We also highlight the rich dynamics of the composition of human population, a factor which was often neglected in previous research on general populations.

Famine, revolt, and the dynastic cycle: population dynamics in historic China.

The purpose of this paper is to offer a formal model of corporate income tax evasion. While individual tax evasion is essentially a portfolio selection problem, corporate income tax evasion is much more complicated. When the owner of a firm decides to evade taxes, not only does it risk being detected by the tax authorities but, more importantly, the optimal compensation scheme offered to the employees will be altered. Specifically, due to the illegal nature of tax evasion, the contract offered to the manager is necessarily incomplete. This creates a distortion in the manager's effort, and reduces the efficiency of the contract. Tax evasion thus increases the profit retained by the firm not only at the expense of the risk of being detected, but also in the efficiency loss of internal control.

/pdf/internal-control-versus-external-manipulation-a-model-of-4yg8ju0lql.pdf

Internal control versus external manipulation: a model of corporate income tax evasion

Foreword by James J. Heckman 1. Introduction to Chinese Families 2. Social Backgrounds of China and Taiwan 3. Co-residence and Family Size 4. Family Fertility 5. Marriage Patterns 6. Housework and Household Decisions 7. Revealed Son Preferences 8. The Role of the Family in Child Education 9. Intergenerational Mobility 10. Family Reciprocal Supports 11. Parental Transfers and Child Feedbacks 12. Changing Gender Preferences in Taiwan 13. Concluding Remarks

Understanding Chinese Families: A Comparative Study of Taiwan and Southeast China

Numerous studies have consistently found negative effects of sibship size on educational outcomes. Three main explanations of these effects have been offered in the literature: (1) the dilution of family resources, (2) a changing intellectual environment in the family for each succeeding sibling, and (3) unobserved selectivity at the family level. In this article, the authors propose a fourth explanation as an extension of the resource-dilution hypothesis: In a traditional or transitional society where resources from all family members are pooled together, families may sacrifice the educational opportunities of older (female) siblings and use their remittance to compensate the family expenses, particularly when there are younger siblings. With analyses of data from the Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD), the authors found empirical evidence to support this explanation. In particular, they found that the negative effects of sibship size are the strongest for girls with younger brothers and sisters who a...

C. Y. Cyrus Chu

Papers

Coresidence With Elderly Parents: A Comparative Study of Southeast China and Taiwan

Famine, revolt, and the dynastic cycle: population dynamics in historic China.

Internal control versus external manipulation: a model of corporate income tax evasion

Understanding Chinese Families: A Comparative Study of Taiwan and Southeast China

Effects of Sibship Structure Revisited: Evidence from Intrafamily Resource Transfer in Taiwan