China is an important counterexample to the findings in the law, institutions, finance, and growth literature: neither its legal nor financial system is well developed by existing standards, yet it has one of the fastest growing economies. We examine 3 sectors of the economy: the State Sector (state-owned firms), the Listed Sector (publicly listed firms), and the Private Sector (all other firms with various types of private and local government ownership). The law-finance-growth nexus established by existing literature applies to the State and Listed Sectors: with poor legal protections of minority and outside investors, external markets are weak, and the growth of these firms is slow or negative. However, with arguably poorer applicable legal and financial mechanisms, the Private Sector grows much faster than the State and Listed Sectors, and provides most of the economy's growth. This suggests that there exist effective alternative financing channels and governance mechanisms, such as those based on reputation and relationships, to support this growth.

Law, Finance, and Economic Growth in China

We analyze the effect of rising Chinese import competition between 1990 and 2007 on US local labor markets, exploiting cross-market variation in import exposure stemming from initial diffe...

/pdf/the-china-syndrome-local-labor-market-effects-of-import-m7cu7qezh2.pdf

The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States

https://finance.wharton.upenn.edu/~allenf/download/Vita/finlaw-china-122402.pdf

Law, finance, and economic growth in China

A common approach to evaluating robustness to omitted variable bias is to observe coefficient movements after inclusion of controls. This is informative only if selection on observables is informative about selection on unobservables. Although this link is known in theory in existing literature, very few empirical articles approach this formally. I develop an extension of the theory that connects bias explicitly to coefficient stability. I show that it is necessary to take into account coefficient and R-squared movements. I develop a formal bounding argument. I show two validation exercises and discuss application to the economics literature. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

/pdf/unobservable-selection-and-coefficient-stability-theory-and-1r9lpwnnl2.pdf

Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence

Resource misallocation can lower aggregate total factor productivity (TFP).We
use microdata on manufacturing establishments to quantify the potential extent
of misallocation in China and India versus the United States. We measure sizable
gaps in marginal products of labor and capital across plants within narrowly
defined industries in China and India compared with the United States. When
capital and labor are hypothetically reallocated to equalize marginal products to
the extent observed in the United States, we calculate manufacturing TFP gains
of 30%–50% in China and 40%–60% in India.

/pdf/misallocation-and-manufacturing-tfp-in-china-and-india-2iv0rc70q7.pdf

Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India

Since the seminal work of Krugman (1979), product variety has played a central role in models of trade and growth. In spite of the general use of love-of-variety models, there has been no systematic study of how the import of new varieties has contributed to national welfare gains in the United States. In this paper we show that the unmeasured growth in product variety from US imports has been an important source of gains from trade over the last three decades (1972-2001). Using extremely disaggregated data, we show that the number of imported product varieties has increased by a factor of four. We also estimate the elasticities of substitution for each available category at the same level of aggregation, and describe their behavior across time and SITC-5 industries. Using these estimates we develop an exact price index and find that the upward bias in the conventional import price index is approximately 1.2 percent per year – double the estimated impact due to hedonic adjustments on the CPI. The magnitude of this bias suggests that the welfare gains from variety growth in imports alone are 2.8 percent of GDP per year.

/pdf/globalization-and-the-gains-from-variety-3t7kyqz9ei.pdf

Globalization and the gains from variety

Since the seminal work of Krugman (1979), product variety has played a central role in models of trade and growth. In spite of the general use of love-of-variety models, there has been no systematic study of how the import of new varieties has contributed to national welfare gains in the United States. In this paper we show that the unmeasured growth in product variety from US imports has been an important source of gains from trade over the last three decades (1972-2001). Using extremely disaggregated data, we show that the number of imported product varieties has increased by a factor of four. We also estimate the elasticities of substitution for each available category at the same level of aggregation, and describe their behavior across time and SITC-5 industries. Using these estimates we develop an exact price index and find that the upward bias in the conventional import price index is approximately 1.2 percent per year. The magnitude of this bias suggests that the welfare gains from variety growth in imports alone are 2.8 percent of GDP.

/pdf/globalization-and-the-gains-from-variety-1xq8uo2x2z.pdf

Globalization and the Gains from Variety

This paper describes the extent of product creation and destruction in a large sector of the US economy. We find four times more entry and exit in product markets than is found in labor markets because most product turnover happens within firms. Net product creation is strongly procyclical and primarily driven by creation rather than destruction. We find that a cost-of-living index that takes product turnover into account is 0.8 percentage points per year lower than a “fixed goods” price index like the CPI. The procyclicality of the bias implies that business cycles are more volatile than indicated by official statis tics. (JEL E31, E32, L11, O31)

/pdf/product-creation-and-destruction-evidence-and-price-32wigdrxz4.pdf

Product Creation and Destruction: Evidence and Price Implications

We find that prior to World Trade Organization membership, countries set import tariffs 9 percentage points higher on inelastically supplied imports relative to those supplied elastically. The magnitude of this effect is similar to the size of average tariffs in these countries, and market power explains more of the tariff variation than a commonly used political economy variable. Moreover, US trade restrictions not covered by the WTO are significantly higher on goods where the United States has more market power. We find strong evidence that these importers have market power and use it in setting noncooperative trade policy. (JEL F12, F13)

https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/docs/koenig-pamina/optimal_tariff.pdf

Optimal Tariffs and Market Power: The Evidence

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/60706/1/345440595.pdf

Christian Broda

Papers

Globalization and the gains from variety

Globalization and the Gains from Variety

Product Creation and Destruction: Evidence and Price Implications

Optimal Tariffs and Market Power: The Evidence

Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries