Background—The objective of this study was to examine the association of Joint National Committee (JNC-V) blood pressure and National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) cholesterol categories with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, to incorporate them into coronary prediction algorithms, and to compare the discrimination properties of this approach with other noncategorical prediction functions. Methods and Results—This work was designed as a prospective, single-center study in the setting of a community-based cohort. The patients were 2489 men and 2856 women 30 to 74 years old at baseline with 12 years of follow-up. During the 12 years of follow-up, a total of 383 men and 227 women developed CHD, which was significantly associated with categories of blood pressure, total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol (all P,.001). Sex-specific prediction equations were formulated to predict CHD risk according to age, diabetes, smoking, JNC-V blood pressure categories, and NCEP total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol categories. The accuracy of this categorical approach was found to be comparable to CHD prediction when the continuous variables themselves were used. After adjustment for other factors, ’28% of CHD events in men and 29% in women were attributable to blood pressure levels that exceeded high normal ($130/85). The corresponding multivariable-adjusted attributable risk percent associated with elevated total cholesterol ($200 mg/dL) was 27% in men and 34% in women. Conclusions—Recommended guidelines of blood pressure, total cholesterol, and LDL cholesterol effectively predict CHD risk in a middle-aged white population sample. A simple coronary disease prediction algorithm was developed using categorical variables, which allows physicians to predict multivariate CHD risk in patients without overt CHD. (Circulation. 1998;97:1837-1847.)

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Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Using Risk Factor Categories

We provide an updated version of the Compendium of Physical Activities, a coding scheme that classifies specific physical activity (PA) by rate of energy expenditure. It was developed to enhance the comparability of results across studies using self-reports of PA. The Compendium coding scheme links a five-digit code that describes physical activities by major headings (e.g., occupation, transportation, etc.) and specific activities within each major heading with its intensity, defined as the ratio of work metabolic rate to a standard resting metabolic rate (MET). Energy expenditure in MET-minutes, MET-hours, kcal, or kcal per kilogram body weight can be estimated for specific activities by type or MET intensity. Additions to the Compendium were obtained from studies describing daily PA patterns of adults and studies measuring the energy cost of specific physical activities in field settings. The updated version includes two new major headings of volunteer and religious activities, extends the number of specific activities from 477 to 605, and provides updated MET intensity levels for selected activities.

http://www.lisaworkman.com/uploads/3/1/7/1/3171788/ainsworth_et_al._2000_-_msse.pdf

Compendium of physical activities: an update of activity codes and MET intensities.

Objective. —To encourage increased participation in physical activity among Americans of all ages by issuing a public health recommendation on the types and amounts of physical activity needed for health promotion and disease prevention. Participants. —A planning committee of five scientists was established by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the American College of Sports Medicine to organize a workshop. This committee selected 15 other workshop discussants on the basis of their research expertise in issues related to the health implications of physical activity. Several relevant professional or scientific organizations and federal agencies also were represented. Evidence. —The panel of experts reviewed the pertinent physiological, epidemiologic, and clinical evidence, including primary research articles and recent review articles. Consensus Process. —Major issues related to physical activity and health were outlined, and selected members of the expert panel drafted sections of the paper from this outline. A draft manuscript was prepared by the planning committee and circulated to the full panel in advance of the 2-day workshop. During the workshop, each section of the manuscript was reviewed by the expert panel. Primary attention was given to achieving group consensus concerning the recommended types and amounts of physical activity. A concise "public health message" was developed to express the recommendations of the panel. During the ensuing months, the consensus statement was further reviewed and revised and was formally endorsed by both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the American College of Sports Medicine. Conclusion. —Every US adult should accumulate 30 minutes or more of moderate-intensity physical activity on most, preferably all, days of the week. ( JAMA . 1995;273:402-407)

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/JAMA/articlepdf/386766/jama_273_5_029.pdf

Physical Activity and Public Health: A Recommendation From the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the American College of Sports Medicine

Summary—In 1995 the American College of Sports Medicine and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published national guidelines on Physical Activity and Public Health The Committee on Exercise and Cardiac Rehabilitation of the American Heart Association endorsed and supported these recommendations The purpose of the present report is to update and clarify the 1995 recommendations on the types and amounts of physical activity needed by healthy adults to improve and maintain health Development of this document was by an expert panel of scientists, including physicians, epidemiologists, exercise scientists, and public health specialists This panel reviewed advances in pertinent physiologic, epidemiologic, and clinical scientific data, including primary research articles and reviews published since the original recommendation was issued in 1995 Issues considered by the panel included new scientific evidence relating physical activity to health, physical activity recommendations by various organizations in the interim, and communications issues Key points related to updating the physical activity recommendation were outlined and writing groups were formed A draft manuscript was prepared and circulated for review to the expert panel as well as to outside experts Comments were integrated into the final recommendation Primary Recommendation—To promote and maintain health, all healthy adults aged 18 to 65 yr need moderate-intensity aerobic (endurance) physical activity for a minimum of 30 min on five days each week or vigorous-intensity aerobic physical activity for a minimum of 20 min on three days each week [I (A)] Combinations of moderate- and vigorous-intensity activity can be performed to meet this recommendation [IIa (B)] For example, a person can meet the recommendation by walking briskly for 30 min twice during the week and then jogging for 20 min on two other days Moderate-intensity aerobic activity, which is generally equivalent to a brisk walk and noticeably accelerates the heart rate, can be accumulated toward the 30-min minimum by performing bouts each lasting 10 or more minutes [I (B)] Vigorous-intensity activity is exemplified by jogging, and causes rapid breathing and a substantial increase in heart rate In addition, every adult should perform activities that maintain or increase muscular strength and endurance a minimum of two days each week [IIa (A)] Because of the dose-response relation between physical activity and health, persons who wish to further improve their personal fitness, reduce their risk for chronic diseases and disabilities or prevent unhealthy weight gain may benefit by exceeding the minimum recommended amounts of physical activity [I (A)] (Circulation 2007;116:1081-1093)

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Physical Activity and Public Health Updated Recommendation for Adults From the American College of Sports Medicine and the American Heart Association

The primary purpose of this narrative review was to evaluate the current literature and to provide further insight into the role physical inactivity plays in the development of chronic disease and premature death. We confirm that there is irrefutable evidence of the effectiveness of regular physical activity in the primary and secondary prevention of several chronic diseases (e.g., cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, hypertension, obesity, depression and osteoporosis) and premature death. We also reveal that the current Health Canada physical activity guidelines are sufficient to elicit health benefits, especially in previously sedentary people. There appears to be a linear relation between physical activity and health status, such that a further increase in physical activity and fitness will lead to additional improvements in health status.

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Health benefits of physical activity: the evidence

We examined the physical activity and other life-style characteristics of 16,936 Harvard alumni, aged 35 to 74, for relations to rates of mortality from all causes and for influences on length of life. A total of 1413 alumni died during 12 to 16 years of follow-up (1962 to 1978). Exercise reported as walking, stair climbing, and sports play related inversely to total mortality, primarily to death due to cardiovascular or respiratory causes. Death rates declined steadily as energy expended on such activity increased from less than 500 to 3500 kcal per week, beyond which rates increased slightly. Rates were one quarter to one third lower among alumni expending 2000 or more kcal during exercise per week than among less active men. With or without consideration of hypertension, cigarette smoking, extremes or gains in body weight, or early parental death, alumni mortality rates were significantly lower among the physically active. Relative risks of death for individuals were highest among cigarette smokers and men with hypertension, and attributable risks in the community were highest among smokers and sedentary men. By the age of 80, the amount of additional life attributable to adequate exercise, as compared with sedentariness, was one to more than two years.

Physical Activity, All-Cause Mortality, and Longevity of College Alumni

Objective. —To examine the independent associations of vigorous (≥6 resting metabolic rate [MET] score) and nonvigorous ( Design. —Prospective cohort study, following up men from 1962 or 1966 through 1988. Setting/Participants. —Subjects were Harvard University alumni, without self-reported, physician-diagnosed cardiovascular disease, cancer, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (n=17 321). Men with a mean age of 46 years reported their physical activities on questionnaires at baseline. Main Outcome Measure. —All-cause mortality (3728 deaths). Results. —Total energy expenditure and energy expenditure from vigorous activities, but not energy expenditure from nonvigorous activities, related inversely to mortality. After adjustment for potential confounders, the relative risks of dying associated with increasing quintiles of total energy expenditure were 1.00 (referent), 0.94, 0.95, 0.91 and 0.91, respectively (P[trend] Conclusions. —These data demonstrate a graded inverse relationship between total physical activity and mortality. Furthermore, vigorous activities but not nonvigorous activities were associated with longevity. These findings pertain only to allcause mortality; nonvigorous exercise has been shown to benefit other aspects of health. (JAMA. 1995;273:1179-1184)

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/JAMA/articlepdf/387973/jama_273_15_030.pdf

Exercise Intensity and Longevity in Men: The Harvard Alumni Health Study

Background The effect of pregnancy on the risk of breast cancer is not clear. We tested the hypothesis that the risk of breast cancer increases transiently after pregnancy but then falls to a level below that of age-matched nulliparous women. Methods We conducted a case-control study of a nationwide cohort in Sweden, using a computerized record linkage between the Cancer Registry and the Fertility Registry. The study subjects were women born from 1925 through 1960 who were resident citizens of Sweden at the time of the 1960 census. A total of 12,666 patients with breast cancer were compared with 62,121 age-matched control subjects. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios for the development of breast cancer at different ages, according to maternal age at first delivery (in uniparous as compared with nulliparous women) and age at second delivery (in biparous as compared with uniparous women). Results Uniparous women were at higher risk of breast cancer than nulliparous women for up ...

Transient Increase in the Risk of Breast Cancer after Giving Birth

The importance of age at menarche, age at menopause, height, and obesity as risk factors for breast cancer, and the possible interactions among these factors in breast cancer causation were investigated in a data set collected in the late 1960's, in an international multicenter case-control study. Multiple logistic regression procedures were used to model data from 3,993 breast cancer cases and 11,783 controls from 7 study centers representing the range of international variation of breast cancer incidence. Height and obesity (measured through the weight/height2 index) were independent risk factors for breast cancer among post-menopausal but not pre-menopausal women; post-menopausal women taller by 10 cm had a 12% higher risk of breast cancer (95% confidence interval, CI, 3-21%) and post-menopausal women of average height (say 158 cm) had an 11% higher risk of breast cancer (CI 7-16%) when they were heavier by 10 kg (and, therefore, more obese by 4 kg/m2). Age at menarche was a risk factor among both pre-menopausal and post-menopausal women, a delay of 2 years corresponding to a 10% reduction in breast cancer risk (CI 6-15%). Age at menopause was also a breast cancer risk factor, women with menopause at each 5 year age difference having a 17% higher risk of breast cancer (CI 11-22%). There is evidence of an interaction (deviation from the logistic regression-postulated multiplicativity) between obesity and age at menarche, implying that the protective effect of late menarche may not apply to overweight women or that late menarche may become detrimental in obese women. The estimated relative risk coefficients, when applied to average risk factor levels observed among control women, can explain only a small fraction of the difference in breast cancer incidence between Boston and Tokyo.

Age at menarche, age at menopause, height and obesity as risk factors for breast cancer: associations and interactions in an international case-control study.

Chung-Cheng Hsieh

Papers

Physical Activity, All-Cause Mortality, and Longevity of College Alumni

Exercise Intensity and Longevity in Men: The Harvard Alumni Health Study

Transient Increase in the Risk of Breast Cancer after Giving Birth

Age at menarche, age at menopause, height and obesity as risk factors for breast cancer: associations and interactions in an international case-control study.

Reasons for increasing trends in large for gestational age births