Showing papers by "Claudia Pahl-Wostl published in 2001"

Understanding climate policy using participatory agent-based social simulation

Abstract: Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been widely applied to questions of climate change policy--such as the effects of abating greenhouse gas emissions, balancing impacts, adaptation and mitigation costs, understanding processes of adaptation, and evaluating the potential for technological solutions. In almost all cases, the social dimensions of climate policy are poorly represented. Econometric models look for efficient optimal solutions. Decision making perspectives might reflect broadscale cultural theory, but not the diversity of cognitive models in practice. Technological change is often ignored or exogenous, and without understanding of stakeholder strategies for innovation and diffusion. Policy measures are proposed from idealised perspectives, with little understanding of the constraints of individual decision makers. We suggest a set of criteria for IAMs that can be used to evaluate the choice and structure of models with respect to their suitability for understanding key climate change debates. The criteria are discussed for three classes of models-- optimising econometric models, dynamic simulation models and a proposed agent-based strategy. A prototype agent-based IAM is reported to demonstrate the usefulness and power of the agent based approach and to indicate concretely how that approach meets the criteria for good IAMs and to complex social issues more generally.

Agent-based integrated assessment modelling: the example of climate change

Abstract: Current approaches to deal with the socio-economic implications of climate change rely heavily on economic models that compare costs and benefits of different measures. We show that the theoretical foundations underpinning current approaches to economic modelling of climate change are inappropriate for the type of questions that are being asked. We argue therefore that another tradition of modelling, social simulation, is more appropriate in dealing with the complex environmental problems we face today.

An information tool for citizens to assess impacts of climate change from a regional perspective

Abstract: Participatory Integrated Assessement (IA) methods complement analytical methods like IA-modeling in their explicit inclusion of stakeholders and decision-makers in the assessment. Integrated Assessment is perceived as a process of social learning involving scientists, stakeholders, policymakers and the society at large. We introduce a new approach to provide expert knowledge for participatory integrated assessments of regional climate change: 'Interactive Citizen's Information Tools' (ICITs). ICITs provide citizens with expert knowledge about causes of climate change, potential impacts, and policy options to address anthropogenic climate change. In this paper we discuss the development and application of IMPACTS in IA-focus groups in Switzerland. IMPACTS is based on user-friendly hypermedia technologies and allows citizens to get informed on a broad range of potential climate change impacts - with an emphasis on prevailing uncertainties. IA-focus groups are deliberative group discussions that make use of computer tools to support the discussion and assessment. The goal of IA-focus groups is to elicit how informed citizens judge the risks of anthropogenic climate change. Experiences with IMPACTS showed that the combination of focus groups with ICITs is a feasible and promising approach for a participatory IA of regional climate change, in particular, and of complex environmental issues, in general.