Background In the face of rapidly changing data, a range of case fatality ratio estimates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. We aimed to provide robust estimates, accounting for censoring and ascertainment biases. Methods We collected individual-case data for patients who died from COVID-19 in Hubei, mainland China (reported by national and provincial health commissions to Feb 8, 2020), and for cases outside of mainland China (from government or ministry of health websites and media reports for 37 countries, as well as Hong Kong and Macau, until Feb 25, 2020). These individual-case data were used to estimate the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital). We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the case fatality ratio by relating the aggregate distribution of cases to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for demography and age-based and location-based under-ascertainment. We also estimated the case fatality ratio from individual line-list data on 1334 cases identified outside of mainland China. Using data on the prevalence of PCR-confirmed cases in international residents repatriated from China, we obtained age-stratified estimates of the infection fatality ratio. Furthermore, data on age-stratified severity in a subset of 3665 cases from China were used to estimate the proportion of infected individuals who are likely to require hospitalisation. Findings Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9-19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9-28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56-3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23-1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27-0·38] in those aged Interpretation These early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and show a strong age gradient in risk of death. Funding UK Medical Research Council.

Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis.

Today, surface-wave analysis is widely adopted for building near-surface S-wave velocity models. The surface-wave method is under continuous and rapid evolution, also thanks to the lively scientific debate among different disciplines, and interest in the technique has increased significantly during the last decade. A comprehensive review of the literature in the main scientific journals provides historical perspective, methodological issues, applications, and most-promising recent approaches. Higher modes in the inversion and retrieval of lateral variations are dealt with in great detail, and the current scientific debate on these topics is reported. A best-practices guideline is also outlined.

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Surface-wave analysis for building near-surface velocity models — Established approaches and new perspectives

Seismic data regularization, which spatially transforms irregularly sampled acquired data to regularly sampled data, is a long-standing problem in seismic data processing. Data regularization can be implemented using Fourier theory by using a method that estimates the spatial frequency content on an irregularly sampled grid. The data can then be reconstructed on any desired grid. Difficulties arise from the nonorthogonality of the global Fourier basis functions on an irregular grid, which results in the problem of “spectral leakage”: energy from one Fourier coefficient leaks onto others. We investigate the nonorthogonality of the Fourier basis on an irregularly sampled grid and propose a technique called “antileakage Fourier transform” to overcome the spectral leakage. In the antileakage Fourier transform, we first solve for the most energetic Fourier coefficient, assuming that it causes the most severe leakage. To attenuate all aliases and the leakage of this component onto other Fourier coefficients, the data component corresponding to this most energetic Fourier coefficient is subtracted from the original input on the irregular grid. We then use this new input to solve for the next Fourier coefficient, repeating the procedure until all Fourier coefficients are estimated. This procedure is equivalent to “reorthogonalizing” the global Fourier basis on an irregularly sampled grid. We demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of this technique with successful applications to both synthetic and real data examples.

Antileakage Fourier transform for seismic data regularization

By the end of 2018, 42 years after the landing of the two Viking seismometers on Mars, InSight will deploy onto Mars’ surface the SEIS (Seismic Experiment for Internal Structure) instrument; a six-axes seismometer equipped with both a long-period three-axes Very Broad Band (VBB) instrument and a three-axes short-period (SP) instrument. These six sensors will cover a broad range of the seismic bandwidth, from 0.01 Hz to 50 Hz, with possible extension to longer periods. Data will be transmitted in the form of three continuous VBB components at 2 sample per second (sps), an estimation of the short period energy content from the SP at 1 sps and a continuous compound VBB/SP vertical axis at 10 sps. The continuous streams will be augmented by requested event data with sample rates from 20 to 100 sps. SEIS will improve upon the existing resolution of Viking’s Mars seismic monitoring by a factor of $\sim 2500$
 at 1 Hz and $\sim 200\,000$
 at 0.1 Hz. An additional major improvement is that, contrary to Viking, the seismometers will be deployed via a robotic arm directly onto Mars’ surface and will be protected against temperature and wind by highly efficient thermal and wind shielding. Based on existing knowledge of Mars, it is reasonable to infer a moment magnitude detection threshold of $M_{{w}} \sim 3$
 at $40^{\circ}$
 epicentral distance and a potential to detect several tens of quakes and about five impacts per year. In this paper, we first describe the science goals of the experiment and the rationale used to define its requirements. We then provide a detailed description of the hardware, from the sensors to the deployment system and associated performance, including transfer functions of the seismic sensors and temperature sensors. We conclude by describing the experiment ground segment, including data processing services, outreach and education networks and provide a description of the format to be used for future data distribution.

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SEIS: Insight’s Seismic Experiment for Internal Structure of Mars

An epidemic disease caused by a new coronavirus has spread in Northern Italy with a strong contagion rate. We implement an SEIR model to compute the infected population and the number of casualties of this epidemic. The example may ideally regard the situation in the Italian Region of Lombardy, where the epidemic started on February 24, but by no means attempts to perform a rigorous case study in view of the lack of suitable data and the uncertainty of the different parameters, namely, the variation of the degree of home isolation and social distancing as a function of time, the initial number of exposed individuals and infected people, the incubation and infectious periods, and the fatality rate. First, we perform an analysis of the results of the model by varying the parameters and initial conditions (in order for the epidemic to start, there should be at least one exposed or one infectious human). Then, we consider the Lombardy case and calibrate the model with the number of dead individuals to date (May 5, 2020) and constrain the parameters on the basis of values reported in the literature. The peak occurs at day 37 (March 31) approximately, with a reproduction ratio R 0 of 3 initially, 1.36 at day 22, and 0.8 after day 35, indicating different degrees of lockdown. The predicted death toll is approximately 15,600 casualties, with 2.7 million infected individuals at the end of the epidemic. The incubation period providing a better fit to the dead individuals is 4.25 days, and the infectious period is 4 days, with a fatality rate of 0.00144/day [values based on the reported (official) number of casualties]. The infection fatality rate (IFR) is 0.57%, and it is 2.37% if twice the reported number of casualties is assumed. However, these rates depend on the initial number of exposed individuals. If approximately nine times more individuals are exposed, there are three times more infected people at the end of the epidemic and IFR = 0.47%. If we relax these constraints and use a wider range of lower and upper bounds for the incubation and infectious periods, we observe that a higher incubation period (13 vs. 4.25 days) gives the same IFR (0.6 vs. 0.57%), but nine times more exposed individuals in the first case. Other choices of the set of parameters also provide a good fit to the data, but some of the results may not be realistic. Therefore, an accurate determination of the fatality rate and characteristics of the epidemic is subject to knowledge of the precise bounds of the parameters. Besides the specific example, the analysis proposed in this work shows how isolation measures, social distancing, and knowledge of the diffusion conditions help us to understand the dynamics of the epidemic. Hence, it is important to quantify the process to verify the effectiveness of the lockdown.

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A Simulation of a COVID-19 Epidemic Based on a Deterministic SEIR Model

An epidemic disease caused by a new coronavirus has spread in Northern Italy with a strong contagion rate. We implement an SEIR model to compute the infected population and number of casualties of this epidemic. The example may ideally regard the situation in the Italian Region of Lombardy, where the epidemic started on February 25. We calibrate the model with the number of dead individuals to date (May 5, 2020) and constraint the parameters on the basis of values reported in the literature. The peak occurs at day 37 (March 31) approximately, when there is a rapid decrease, with a reproduction ratio R0 = 3 initially, 1.36 at day 22 and 0.8 after day 35, indicating different degrees of lockdown. The predicted death toll is approximately 15600 casualties, with 2.7 million infected individuals at the end of the epidemic. The incubation period providing a better fit of the dead individuals is 4.25 days and the infection period is 4 days, with a fatality rate of 0.00144/day [values based on the reported (official) number of casualties]. The infection fatality rate (IFR) is 0.57 %, and 2.36 % if twice the reported number of casualties is assumed. However, these rates depend on the initially exposed individuals. If approximately nine times more individuals are exposed, there are three times more infected people at the end of the epidemic and IFR = 0.47 %. If we relax these constraints and use a wider range of lower and upper bounds for the incubation and infection periods, we observe that a higher incubation period (13 versus 4.25 days) gives the same IFR (0.6 versus 0.57 %), but nine times more exposed individuals in the first case. Therefore, a precise determination of the fatality rate is subject to the knowledge of the characteristics of the epidemic.

A simulation of a COVID-19 epidemic based on a deterministic SEIR model

Several recent advances in land-seismic acquisition equipment and processing algorithms have encouraged exploration geophysicists to reconsider the potential benefits of energetic low frequencies for geophysical applications, imaging beneath high-velocity and highly absorbing formations, deep imaging, acoustic impedance inversion, velocity model estimation in geophysically complex areas, and inversion of surface waves to characterize near-surface elastic properties.

Low-frequency vibroseis data with maximum displacement sweeps

Overview of Simultaneous Vibroseis Acquisition Methods

This invention relates in general to vibroseis and, more specifically, but not by way of limitation, to the enhancement and/or signal strength optimization of low frequency content of seismic signals for use in surveying boreholes and/or subsurface earth formations. In embodiments of the present invention, physical properties of a seismic vibrator may be analyzed and used to provide for determination of a driving force necessary to drive a reaction mass to produce a sweep signal with enhanced low frequency content for injection into the ground for vibroseis. In certain aspects, the physical properties may be considered independent of any geophysical properties related to operation of the seismic vibrator.

Claudio Bagaini

Papers

A Simulation of a COVID-19 Epidemic Based on a Deterministic SEIR Model

A simulation of a COVID-19 epidemic based on a deterministic SEIR model

Low-frequency vibroseis data with maximum displacement sweeps

Overview of Simultaneous Vibroseis Acquisition Methods

Systems and methods for enhancing low-frequency content in vibroseis acquisition