Showing papers by "Constantine E. Kontokosta published in 2020"

Energy Cost Burdens for Low-Income and Minority Households

Abstract: Problem, research strategy, and findings: Of the three primary components of housing affordability measures—rent, transportation, and utilities—utility costs are the least understood yet are the on...

Exposure Density and Neighborhood Disparities in COVID-19 Infection Risk: Using Large-scale Geolocation Data to Understand Burdens on Vulnerable Communities.

Abstract: This study develops a new method to quantify neighborhood activity levels at high spatial and temporal resolutions and test whether, and to what extent, behavioral responses to social distancing policies vary with socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. We define exposure density as a measure of both the localized volume of activity in a defined area and the proportion of activity occurring in non-residential and outdoor land uses. We utilize this approach to capture inflows/outflows of people as a result of the pandemic and changes in mobility behavior for those that remain. First, we develop a generalizable method for assessing neighborhood activity levels by land use type using smartphone geolocation data over a three-month period covering more than 12 million unique users within the Greater New York area. Second, we measure and analyze disparities in community social distancing by identifying patterns in neighborhood activity levels and characteristics before and after the stay-at-home order. Finally, we evaluate the effect of social distancing in neighborhoods on COVID-19 infection rates and outcomes associated with localized demographic, socioeconomic, and infrastructure characteristics in order to identify disparities in health outcomes related to exposure risk. Our findings provide insight into the timely evaluation of the effectiveness of social distancing for individual neighborhoods and support a more equitable allocation of resources to support vulnerable and at-risk communities. Our findings demonstrate distinct patterns of activity pre- and post-COVID across neighborhoods. The variation in exposure density has a direct and measurable impact on the risk of infection.

Urban Science: Integrated Theory from the First Cities to Sustainable Metropolises

Abstract: Urban science seeks to understand the fundamental processes that drive, shape and sustain cities and urbanization. It is a multi/transdisciplinary approach involving concepts, methods and research from the social, natural, engineering and computational sciences, along with the humanities. This report is intended to convey the current “state of the art” in urban science while also clearly indicating how urban science builds upon and complements (but does not replace) prior work on cities and urbanization in many other disciplines. The report does not aim at a fully comprehensive synopsis of work done under the rubric of “urban science” but it does aim to convey what makes urban science different from discipline-based examinations of cities and urbanization. It also highlights novel insights generated by the inherently multidisciplinary inquiry that urban science exemplifies. The authors of the report are all based in academic or research institutions but several of them are close to practice by virtue of collaboration with NGOs and community groups and engagement with policy. The authors also represent different academic disciplines and varied traditions of scientific inquiry. The report is meant to facilitate, and hopefully also provoke, discussion among the many stakeholders for whom a scientifically based, empirically rich, and historically deep understanding of cities and urbanization is not only intellectually compelling but also socially urgent and ethically pressing. We believe that the innovative scholarship constituting urban science can importantly provide scientific leadership to support meeting the urgent challenges of global sustainable development.

The impact of mandatory energy audits on building energy use

Abstract: Cities are increasingly adopting energy policies that reduce information asymmetries and knowledge gaps through data transparency, including energy disclosure and mandatory audit requirements for existing buildings. Although such audits impose non-trivial costs on building owners, their energy use impacts have not been empirically evaluated. Here we examine the effect of a large-scale mandatory audit policy—New York City’s Local Law 87—on building energy use, using detailed audit and energy data between 2011 and 2016 for approximately 4,000 buildings. This specific policy context, in which the compliance year is randomly assigned, provides a unique opportunity to explore the audit effect without the self-selection bias found in studies of voluntary audit policies. We find energy use reductions of approximately –2.5% for multifamily residential buildings and –4.9% for office buildings. The results suggest that mandatory audits, by themselves, create an insufficient incentive to invest in energy efficiency at the scale needed to meet citywide carbon-reduction goals. Although more cities are considering mandatory building energy audits, their effect on energy use in buildings is not clear. Using data from New York, Kontokosta et al. estimate the extent to which Local Law 87 mandating building energy audits has contributed to a decrease in energy use.

Take the Q Train: Value Capture of Public Infrastructure Projects

Abstract: Transit infrastructure is a critical asset for economic activity yet costly to build in dense urban environments. We measure the benefit of the Second Avenue Subway extension in New York City, the most expensive urban transit infrastructure project in recent memory, by analyzing local real estate prices which capitalize the benefits of transit spillovers. We find 8% price increases, creating $6 billion in new property value. Using cell phone ping data, we document substantial reductions in commuting time especially among subway users, offering a plausible mechanism for the price gains. The increase in prices reflects both higher rents and lower risk. Infrastructure improvements lower the riskiness of real estate investments. Only 30% of the private value created by the subway is captured through higher property tax revenue, and is insufficient to cover the cost of the subway. Targeted property tax increases may help governments capture more of the value created, and serve as a useful funding tool. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Mandatory building energy audits alone are insufficient to meet climate goals

Abstract: Mandatory building energy audits in New York City lead to a modest reduction of energy use of 2.5% and 4.9% for multifamily and office buildings, respectively. This suggests that other approaches besides mandatory audit policies, such as building energy grading and carbon intensity targets, may be needed to achieve sustainability goals.

Take the Q Train: Value Capture of Public Infrastructure Projects

Abstract: Transit infrastructure is a critical asset for economic activity yet costly to build in dense urban environments. We measure the benefit of the Second Avenue Subway extension in New York City, the most expensive urban transit infrastructure project in recent memory, by analyzing local real estate prices which capitalize the benefits of transit spillovers. We find 8% price increases, creating $6 billion in new property value. Using cell phone ping data, we document substantial reductions in commuting time especially among subway users, offering a plausible mechanism for the price gains. The increase in prices reflects both higher rents and lower risk. Infrastructure improvements lower the riskiness of real estate investments. Only 30% of the private value created by the subway is captured through higher property tax revenue, and is insufficient to cover the cost of the subway. Targeted property tax increases may help governments capture more of the value created, and serve as a useful funding tool.