This paper is a re-make of Chapters 1-3 of the Interim Report World Agriculture: towards 2030/2050 (FAO, 2006). In addition, this new paper includes a Chapter 4 on production factors (land, water, yields, fertilizers). Revised and more recent data have been used as basis for the new projections, as follows: (a) updated historical data from the Food Balance Sheets 1961-2007 as of June 2010; (b) undernourishment estimates from The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2010 (SOFI) and related new parameters (CVs, minimum daily energy requirements) are used in the projections; (c) new population data and projections from the UN World Population Prospects - Revision of 2008; (d) new GDP data and projections from the World Bank; (e) a new base year of 2005/2007 (the previous edition used the base year 1999/2001); (f) updated estimates of land resources from the new evaluation of the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) study of FAO and IIASA. Estimates of land under forest and in protected areas from the GAEZ are taken into account and excluded from the estimates of land areas suitable for crop production into which agriculture could expand in the future; (g) updated estimates of existing irrigation, renewable water resources and potentials for irrigation expansion; and (h) changes in the text as required by the new historical data and projections. Like the interim report, this re-make does not include projections for the Fisheries and Forestry sectors. Calories from fish are, however, included, in the food consumption projections, along with those from other commodities (e.g. spices) not analysed individually. The projections presented reflect the magnitudes and trajectories we estimate the major food and agriculture variables may assume in the future; they are not meant to reflect how these variables may be required to evolve in the future in order to achieve some normative objective, e.g. ensure food security for all, eliminate undernourishment or reduce it to any given desired level, or avoid food overconsumption leading to obesity and related NonCommunicable Diseases.

World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision

Agricultural lands occupy 37% of the earth's land surface. Agriculture accounts for 52 and 84% of global anthropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Agricultural soils may also act as a sink or source for CO2, but the net flux is small. Many agricultural practices can potentially mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the most prominent of which are improved cropland and grazing land management and restoration of degraded lands and cultivated organic soils. Lower, but still significant mitigation potential is provided by water and rice management, set-aside, land use change and agroforestry, livestock management and manure management. The global technical mitigation potential from agriculture (excluding fossil fuel offsets from biomass) by 2030, considering all gases, is estimated to be approximately 5500–6000 Mt CO2-eq. yr−1, with economic potentials of approximately 1500–1600, 2500–2700 and 4000–4300 Mt CO2-eq. yr−1 at carbon prices of up to 20, up to 50 and up to 100 US$ t CO2-eq.−1, respectively. In addition, GHG emissions could be reduced by substitution of fossil fuels for energy production by agricultural feedstocks (e.g. crop residues, dung and dedicated energy crops). The economic mitigation potential of biomass energy from agriculture is estimated to be 640, 2240 and 16 000 Mt CO2-eq. yr−1 at 0–20, 0–50 and 0–100 US$ t CO2-eq.−1, respectively.

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Greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture

Partitioning of Nutrients During Pregnancy and Lactation: A Review of Mechanisms Involving Homeostasis and Homeorhesis

Vision for Transformation Strengths: The SHSIP describes a holistic transformation plan and ensures connections between various plan components. The State’s Plan seeks to reward health care providers for better care, smarter spending, and healthier people through higher quality, instead of quantity of services by utilizing valuebased purchasing across public and private payers. The SHSIP provides a well-detailed description of the proposed value-based models of care through the Patient-Centered Medical Home (PCMH) model, resulting in the statewide implementation of Accountable Health Communities (AHCs). The SHSIP outlines a long-term vision of building and expanding the PCMH model into a Community Centered Health Homes (CCHHs) model, which will focus on prevention and collaboration with other communitybased organizations. Another strength identified is the amount of existing PCMHs operating within the State. The SHSIP provides a course of action to assist non-PCMH practices to become nationally certified, as well as, goals for a single, statewide PCMH model to be used by all providers and payers within the state. The implementation of the AHCs will be key in addressing social determinants of health within various communities and seems to align well with the PCMH goals. This focus on population and community health will enable the State to make a broader impact and support the long-term goal of moving towards a CCHH model. The focus on the improvement of clinical, behavioral, and oral health care within the urban, rural, and frontier communities is well aligned and consistent with the SIM goals and the overall Triple Aim initiative. Figure 18: Driver Diagram clearly shows how the State plans to achieve the Triple Aim by 2020.

Department of health & human services

The intake of trans fat has been associated with coronary heart disease, sudden death from cardiac causes, and diabetes. This article reviews the evidence for physiological and cellular effects of trans fatty acids, unsaturated fatty acids with at least one double bond in the trans configuration. The authors consider the feasibility and potential implications of reducing or eliminating the consumption of trans fatty acids from partially hydrogenated vegetable oils in the United States.

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Trans Fatty Acids and Cardiovascular Disease

Certain diets cause a marked reduction in milk fat production in ruminants. Commonly referred to as milk fat depression (MFD), the mechanism involves an interrelationship between rumen microbial processes and tissue metabolism. Numerous theories to explain this interrelationship have been proposed and investigations offer little support for theories that are based on a limitation in the supply of lipogenic precursors. Rather, the basis involves alterations in rumen biohydrogenation of dietary polyunsaturated fatty acids and a specific inhibition of mammary synthesis of milk fat. The biohydrogenation theory proposes that under certain dietary conditions, typical pathways of rumen biohydrogenation are altered to produce unique fatty acid intermediates that inhibit milk fat synthesis. Trans-10, cis-12 conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) has been identified as one example that is correlated with the reduction in milk fat. Investigations with pure isomers have shown that trans-10, cis-12 CLA is a potent inhibitor of milk fat synthesis, and similar to diet-induced MFD, the mechanism involves a coordinated reduction in mRNA abundance for key enzymes involved in the biochemical pathways of fat synthesis. A more complete identification of these naturally produced inhibitors of fat synthesis and delineation of cellular mechanisms may offer broader opportunities for application and understanding of the regulation of lipid metabolism.

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Nutritional regulation of milk fat synthesis.

Conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) is a naturally occurring anticarcinogen found in milk fat and body fat of ruminants. Although CLA is an intermediate in ruminal biohydrogenation of linoleic acid, we hypothesized that its primary source was from endogenous synthesis. This would involve Delta(9)-desaturase and synthesis from trans-11 18:1, another intermediate in ruminal biohydrogenation. Our first experiment supplied lactating cows (n = 3) with trans-11 18:1 by abomasal infusion and examined the potential for endogenous synthesis by measuring changes in milk fat CLA. By d 3, infusion of trans-11 18:1 resulted in a 31% increase in concentration of cis-9, trans-11 CLA in milk fat, demonstrating that an active pathway for endogenous synthesis of CLA exists. Our second experiment examined the quantitative importance of endogenous synthesis of CLA in lactating cows (n = 3) by abomasally infusing a putative stimulator (retinol palmitate) or an inhibitor (sterculic oil) of Delta(9)-desaturase. Infusion of retinol palmitate had no influence on milk fatty acid desaturation, and yield of CLA in milk fat was not altered. However, sterculic oil infusion decreased the concentration of CLA in milk fat by 45%. Consistent with Delta(9)-desaturase inhibition, the sterculic oil treatment also altered the milk fat concentration of other Delta(9)-desaturase products as indicated by the two- to threefold increase in the ratios of 14:0 to 14:1(,) 16:0 to 16:1 and 18:0 to cis-18:1. Using changes in the ratio of 14:0 to 14:1 as an indication of the extent of Delta(9)-desaturase inhibition with the sterculic oil treatment, an estimated 64% of the CLA in milk fat was of endogenous origin. Overall, results demonstrate that endogenous synthesis of CLA from trans-11 18:1 represented the primary source of CLA in milk fat of lactating cows.

Dale E. Bauman

Papers

Partitioning of Nutrients During Pregnancy and Lactation: A Review of Mechanisms Involving Homeostasis and Homeorhesis

Nutritional regulation of milk fat synthesis.

Conjugated linoleic acid is synthesized endogenously in lactating dairy cows by Delta(9)-desaturase.

Biosynthesis of conjugated linoleic acid and its incorporation into meat and milk in ruminants.

Regulation and nutritional manipulation of milk fat: low-fat milk syndrome