Showing papers by "Daniel McFadden published in 1999"
TL;DR: The authors argue that most cognitive anomalies operate through errors in perception that arise from the way information is stored, retrieved, and processed, or through the errors in process that lead to formulation of choice problems.
Abstract: Rationality is a complex behavioral theory that can be parsed into statements about preferences, perceptions, and process. This paper looks at the evidence on rationality that is provided by behavioral experiments, and argues that most cognitive anomalies operate through errors in perception that arise from the way information is stored, retrieved, and processed, or through errors in process that lead to formulation of choice problems as cognitive tasks that are inconsistent at least with rationality narrowly defined. The paper discusses how these cognitive anomalies influence economic behavior and measurement, and their implications for economic analysis.
517 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a general theoretical framework that attempts to disentangle the various psychological elements in the decision-making process is presented and a rigorous and general methodology to model the theoretical framework, explicitly incorporating psychological factors and their influences on choices.
Abstract: We review the case against the standard model of rational behavior and discuss the consequences of various ‘anomalies’ of preference elicitation. A general theoretical framework that attempts to disentangle the various psychological elements in the decision-making process is presented. We then present a rigorous and general methodology to model the theoretical framework, explicitly incorporating psychological factors and their influences on choices. This theme has long been deemed necessary by behavioral researchers, but is often ignored in demand models. The methodology requires the estimation of an integrated multi-equation model consisting of a discrete choice model and the latent variable model system. We conclude with a research agenda to bring the theoretical framework into fruition.
327 citations
TL;DR: It is found that the relationship between socio-economic indicators and mortality declines with age 13 health indicators are strong predictors of mortality and that the subjective survival probabilities predict mortality even after controlling for socio- economic indicators and the health conditions.
Abstract: The objective of this paper is to find the quantitative importance of some predictors of mortality among the population aged 70 or over. The predictors are socio-economic indicators (income, wealth and education), thirteen health indicators including a history of heart attack or cancer, and subjective probabilities of survival. The estimation is based on mortality between waves 1 and 2 of the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest-Old study. We find that the relationship between socio-economic indicators and mortality declines with age 13 health indicators are strong predictors of mortality and that the subjective survival probabilities predict mortality even after controlling for socio-economic indicators and the health conditions.
96 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors find that the relationship between socio-economic indicators and mortality declines with age 13 health indicators and subjective survival probabilities are strong predictors of mortality and that subjective survival probability predicts mortality even after controlling for socioeconomic indicators, and the health conditions.
Abstract: The objective of this paper is to find the quantitative importance of some predictors of mortality among the population aged 70 or over. The predictors are socio-economic indicators (income, wealth and education), thirteen health indicators including a history of heart attack or cancer, and subjective probabilities of survival. The estimation is based on mortality between waves 1 and 2 of the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest-Old study. We find that the relationship between socio-economic indicators and mortality declines with age 13 health indicators are strong predictors of mortality and that the subjective survival probabilities predict mortality even after controlling for socio-economic indicators and the health conditions.
45 citations
01 Jan 1999
TL;DR: Feinstein et al. as mentioned in this paper investigated the pattern of housing mobility amongst the elderly and found that wealthier households are less likely to move and to downsize, and that changes in family composition or retirement status significantly increase the likelihood of a move.
Abstract: Using Waves one through fifteen of the PSII) data set, we investigate the pattern of housing mobility amongst the elderly. We focus especially on two issues: (1) Deterinining which household characteristics tend to increase the probability of a move; and (2) Whether elderly households systematically move to smaller, less expensive dwellings when they do move, and, if so, which characteristics make such "downsizing" particularly likely. We find that wealthier households are less likely to move and to downsize, and that changes in family composition or retirement status significantly increase the likelihood of a move. We do not find much evidence of imperfections in the housing market, or of pervasive liquidity constraints. Finally, we develop a Lagrange Multiplier test for unobserved heterogeneity amongst elderly households, and strongly reject the null hypothesis of homogeneity. Jonathan Feinstein Daniel McFadden Department of Economics Department of Economics Massachusetts Institute of E52—271 Technology Massachusetts Institute of Cambridge, MA 02139 Technology Cambridge, MA 02139 THE DYNAMICS OF HOUSING DEMAND BYThE ELDERLY I. WEALTH, CASH FLOW, AND DEMOGRAPHIC EFFECTS by Jonathan Feinstein Daniel McFadden Department of Economics Massachusetts Institute of Technology
9 citations