Global observations of nonlinear mesoscale eddies

. We describe here the development and evaluation of an Earth system model suitable for centennial-scale climate prediction. The principal new components added to the physical climate model are the terrestrial and ocean ecosystems and gas-phase tropospheric chemistry, along with their coupled interactions. The individual Earth system components are described briefly and the relevant interactions between the components are explained. Because the multiple interactions could lead to unstable feedbacks, we go through a careful process of model spin up to ensure that all components are stable and the interactions balanced. This spun-up configuration is evaluated against observed data for the Earth system components and is generally found to perform very satisfactorily. The reason for the evaluation phase is that the model is to be used for the core climate simulations carried out by the Met Office Hadley Centre for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), so it is essential that addition of the extra complexity does not detract substantially from its climate performance. Localised changes in some specific meteorological variables can be identified, but the impacts on the overall simulation of present day climate are slight. This model is proving valuable both for climate predictions, and for investigating the strengths of biogeochemical feedbacks.

/pdf/development-and-evaluation-of-an-earth-system-model-hadgem2-2jh6zmlrbd.pdf

Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2

Ocean warming and increased stratification of the upper ocean caused by global climate change will likely lead to declines in dissolved O2 in the ocean interior (ocean deoxygenation) with implications for ocean productivity, nutrient cycling, carbon cycling, and marine habitat. Ocean models predict declines of 1 to 7% in the global ocean O2 inventory over the next century, with declines continuing for a thousand years or more into the future. An important consequence may be an expansion in the area and volume of so-called oxygen minimum zones, where O2 levels are too low to support many macrofauna and profound changes in biogeochemical cycling occur. Significant deoxygenation has occurred over the past 50 years in the North Pacific and tropical oceans, suggesting larger changes are looming. The potential for larger O2 declines in the future suggests the need for an improved observing system for tracking ocean O2 changes.

http://www.blogueaqlpa.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Keeling-et-al.-2010-Ocean-deoxygenation-in-a-warming-world.pdf

Ocean Deoxygenation in a Warming World

Using large-scale data sets, these authors present a new assessment of global marine species diversity and its correlation with environmental and spatial parameters.

Global patterns and predictors of marine biodiversity across taxa

On the basis of climate modeling and analogies with past conditions, the potential for multimeter increases in sea level by the end of the 21st century has been proposed. We consider glaciological conditions required for large sea-level rise to occur by 2100 and conclude that increases in excess of 2 meters are physically untenable. We find that a total sea-level rise of about 2 meters by 2100 could occur under physically possible glaciological conditions but only if all variables are quickly accelerated to extremely high limits. More plausible but still accelerated conditions lead to total sea-level rise by 2100 of about 0.8 meter. These roughly constrained scenarios provide a "most likely" starting point for refinements in sea-level forecasts that include ice flow dynamics.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/321/5894/1340.full.pdf

Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise

World ocean atlas 2009

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World ocean atlas 2013. Volume 1, Temperature

World Ocean Atlas 2005, Volume 3: Dissolved Oxygen, Apparent Oxygen Utilization, and Oxygen Saturation [+DVD]

The World Ocean Database (WOD) is the most comprehensive global ocean profile-plankton database available internationally without restriction. All data are in one well-documented format and are available both on DVDs for a minimal charge and on-line without charge. The latest DVD version of the WOD is the World Ocean Database 2009 (WOD09). All data in the WOD are associated with as much metadata as possible, and every ocean data value has a quality control flag associated with it. The WOD is a product of the U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center and its co-located World Data Center for Oceanography. However, the WOD exists because of the international oceanographic data exchange that has occurred under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and the International Council of Science (ICSU) World Data Center (WDC) system. World Data Centers are part of the ICSU World Data System.

/pdf/the-world-ocean-database-3kszd7sgjp.pdf

Daphne R. Johnson

Papers

World ocean atlas 2009

World ocean atlas 2013. Volume 1, Temperature

World Ocean Atlas 2005, Volume 3: Dissolved Oxygen, Apparent Oxygen Utilization, and Oxygen Saturation [+DVD]

The World Ocean Database

World ocean atlas 2013. Volume 4, Dissolved inorganic nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, silicate)