With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range forecasting of convective rainfall events. The authors describe a suite of configurations of the Met Office Unified Model running with grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km and analyze results from these models for a number of convective cases from the summers of 2003, 2004, and 2005. The analysis includes subjective evaluation of the rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall amounts, initiation, cell statistics, and a scale-selective verification technique. It is shown that the 4- and 1-km-gridlength models often give more realistic-looking precipitation fields because convection is represented explicitly rather than parameterized. However, the 4-km model representation suffers from large convective cells and delayed initiation because the grid length is too long to correctly reproduce the convection explicitly. These problems are not as evident in the 1-km model, although it does suffer from too numerous small cells in some situations. Both the 4- and 1-km models suffer from poor representation at the start of the forecast in the period when the high-resolution detail is spinning up from the lower-resolution (12 km) starting data used. A scale-selective precipitation verification technique implies that for later times in the forecasts (after the spinup period) the 1-km model performs better than the 12- and 4-km models for lower rainfall thresholds. For higher thresholds the 4-km model scores almost as well as the 1-km model, and both do better than the 12-km model.

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Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the Met Office unified model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom

Within the framework of the international field campaign COPS (Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study), a large suite of state-of-the-art meteorological instrumentation was operated, partially combined for the first time. This includes networks of in situ and remote-sensing systems such as the Global Positioning System as well as a synergy of multi-wavelength passive and active remote-sensing instruments such as advanced radar and lidar systems. The COPS field phase was performed from 01 June to 31 August 2007 in a low-mountain area in southwestern Germany/eastern France covering the Vosges mountains, the Rhine valley and the Black Forest mountains. The collected dataset covers the entire evolution of convective precipitation events in complex terrain from their initiation, to their development and mature phase until their decay. Eighteen Intensive Observations Periods with 37 operation days and eight additional Special Observations Periods were performed, providing a comprehensive dataset covering different forcing conditions. In this article, an overview of the COPS scientific strategy, the field phase, and its first accomplishments is given. Highlights of the campaign are illustrated with several measurement examples. It is demonstrated that COPS research provides new insight into key processes leading to convection initiation and to the modification of precipitation by orography, in the improvement of quantitative precipitation forecasting by the assimilation of new observations, and in the performance of ensembles of convection-permitting models in complex terrain.

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The Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS): the scientific strategy, the field phase, and research highlights

The international field campaign called the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) took place from June to August 2007 in southwestern Germany/eastern France. The overarching goal of COPS is to advance the quality of forecasts of orographically-induced convective precipitation by four-dimensional observations and modeling of its life cycle. COPS was endorsed as one of the Research and Development Projects of the World Weather Research Program (WWRP), and combines the efforts of institutions and scientists from eight countries. A strong collaboration between instrument principal investigators and experts on mesoscale modeling has been established within COPS. In order to study the relative importance of large-scale and small-scale forcing leading to convection initiation in low mountains, COPS is coordinated with a one-year General Observations Period in central Europe, the WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project MAP D-PHASE, and the first summertime European THORPEX Regional...

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The Convective and Orographically Induced Precipitation Study. A Research and Development Project of the World Weather Research Program for Improving Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting in Low-Mountain Regions

The convective and orographically-induced precipitation study: A research and development project of the world weather research program

A review of remote sensing technology for lower-tropospheric thermodynamic (TD) profiling is presented with focus on high accuracy and high temporal-vertical resolution. The contributions of these instruments to the understanding of the Earth system are assessed with respect to radiative transfer, land-surface-atmosphere feedback, convection initiation, and data assimilation. We demonstrate that for progress in weather and climate research, TD profilers are essential. These observational systems must resolve gradients of humidity and temperature in the stable or unstable atmospheric surface layer close to the ground, in the mixed layer, in the interfacial layer – usually characterized by an inversion – and the lower troposphere. A thorough analysis of the current observing systems is performed revealing significant gaps that must be addressed to fulfill existing needs. We analyze whether current and future passive and active remote sensing systems can close these gaps. A methodological analysis and demonstration of measurement capabilities with respect to bias and precision is executed both for passive and active remote sensing including passive infrared and microwave spectroscopy, the global positioning system as well as water-vapor and temperature Raman lidar and water-vapor differential absorption lidar. Whereas passive remote sensing systems are already mature with respect to operational applications, active more » remote sensing systems require further engineering to become operational in networks. However, active remote sensing systems provide a smaller bias as well as higher temporal and vertical resolutions. For a suitable mesoscale network design, TD profiler system developments should be intensified and dedicated observing system simulation experiments should be performed. « less

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2014RG000476

A review of the remote sensing of lower-tropospheric thermodynamic profiles and its indispensable role for the understanding and the simulation of water and energy cycles

The Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP) is an international project to understand precisely where, when, and how convective clouds form and develop into showers in the mainly maritime environment of southern England. A major aim of CSIP is to compare the results of the very high resolution Met Office weather forecasting model with detailed observations of the early stages of convective clouds and to use the newly gained understanding to improve the predictions of the model. A large array of ground-based instruments plus two instrumented aircraft, from the U.K. National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) and the German Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe, were deployed in southern England, over an area centered on the meteorological radars at Chilbolton, during the summers of 2004 and 2005. In addition to a variety ofground-based remote-sensing instruments, numerous rawinsondes were released at one- to two-hourly intervals from six closely spaced sites. The Met Office weather radar network and Meteosat satellite imagery were used to provide context for the observations made by the instruments deployed during CSIP. This article presents an overview of the CSIP field campaign and examples from CSIP of the types of convective initiation phenomena that are typical in the United Kingdom. It shows the way in which certain kinds of observational data are able to reveal these phenomena and gives an explanation of how the analyses of data from the field campaign will be used in the development of an improved very high resolution NWP model for operational use.

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Dave Bamber

Papers

The Convective Storm Initiation Project