Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a significant burden on global economies and public health. Their emergence is thought to be driven largely by socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, but no comparative study has explicitly analysed these linkages to understand global temporal and spatial patterns of EIDs. Here we analyse a database of 335 EID 'events' (origins of EIDs) between 1940 and 2004, and demonstrate non-random global patterns. EID events have risen significantly over time after controlling for reporting bias, with their peak incidence (in the 1980s) concomitant with the HIV pandemic. EID events are dominated by zoonoses (60.3% of EIDs): the majority of these (71.8%) originate in wildlife (for example, severe acute respiratory virus, Ebola virus), and are increasing significantly over time. We find that 54.3% of EID events are caused by bacteria or rickettsia, reflecting a large number of drug-resistant microbes in our database. Our results confirm that EID origins are significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, and provide a basis for identifying regions where new EIDs are most likely to originate (emerging disease 'hotspots'). They also reveal a substantial risk of wildlife zoonotic and vector-borne EIDs originating at lower latitudes where reporting effort is low. We conclude that global resources to counter disease emergence are poorly allocated, with the majority of the scientific and surveillance effort focused on countries from where the next important EID is least likely to originate.

/pdf/global-trends-in-emerging-infectious-diseases-374pmkz71y.pdf

Global trends in emerging infectious diseases

Decades ago, discussion of an impending global pandemic of obesity was thought of as heresy. But in the 1970s, diets began to shift towards increased reliance upon processed foods, increased away-from-home food intake, and increased use of edible oils and sugar-sweetened beverages. Reductions in physical activity and increases in sedentary behavior began to be seen as well. The negative effects of these changes began to be recognized in the early 1990s, primarily in low- and middle-income populations, but they did not become clearly acknowledged until diabetes, hypertension, and obesity began to dominate the globe. Now, rapid increases in the rates of obesity and overweight are widely documented, from urban and rural areas in the poorest countries of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to populations in countries with higher income levels. Concurrent rapid shifts in diet and activity are well documented as well. An array of large-scale programmatic and policy measures are being explored in a few countries; however, few countries are engaged in serious efforts to prevent the serious dietary challenges being faced.

/pdf/global-nutrition-transition-and-the-pandemic-of-obesity-in-5cnfnv71ot.pdf

Global nutrition transition and the pandemic of obesity in developing countries

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(09)60935-1.pdf

Managing the health effects of climate change

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3].

https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1192&context=scipapers

Coastal systems and low-lying areas

The livestock sector globally is highly dynamic. In developing countries, it is evolving in response to rapidly increasing demand for livestock products. In developed countries, demand for livestock products is stagnating, while many production systems are increasing their efficiency and environmental sustainability. Historical changes in the demand for livestock products have been largely driven by human population growth, income growth and urbanization and the production response in different livestock systems has been associated with science and technology as well as increases in animal numbers. In the future, production will increasingly be affected by competition for natural resources, particularly land and water, competition between food and feed and by the need to operate in a carbon-constrained economy. Developments in breeding, nutrition and animal health will continue to contribute to increasing potential production and further efficiency and genetic gains. Livestock production is likely to be increasingly affected by carbon constraints and environmental and animal welfare legislation. Demand for livestock products in the future could be heavily moderated by socio-economic factors such as human health concerns and changing socio-cultural values. There is considerable uncertainty as to how these factors will play out in different regions of the world in the coming decades.

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2010.0134

Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects

CO on Ru[1010] was investigated by broadband femtosecond sum-frequency spectroscopy at 200 K. Approximately half of the frequency shift of 71 cm(-1) over the coverage range from 0.15 to 1.22 monolayers is shown to originate from dipole-dipole coupling, with the remainder due to a chemical shift. Despite low adlayer-surface registration at the highest coverages, the linewidth of the C-O stretch is comparatively low, and is described by homogeneous broadening according to sum-frequency free-induction decay measurements in the time domain. This can be explained by the dominance of the CO dipole coupling strength over the static disorder present in a coincidence structure. As the coverage decreases below 0.3 monolayer, the linewidth increases considerably, indicative of inhomogeneous broadening. Supported by a concomitant frequency change we suggest that at low coverages CO molecules form chains of irregular length in the [0001] direction, as has been shown for other surfaces with similar symmetry.

Broadband femtosecond sum-frequency spectroscopy of CO on Ru{101̄0} in the frequency and time domains

Sticking probability and surface stoichiometry for oxygen on silver films

Over the past five decades, ultra high vacuum (uhv) techniques applied to well-defined single-crystal samples (the “surface science paradigm”) have transformed our understanding of fundamental surface chemistry. To translate this success to the world of realistic heterogeneous catalysis, however, requires one seriously to address the fact that real heterogeneous catalysts usually operate under near-ambient or higher pressures. Nevertheless, the surface science paradigm can undoubtedly provide crucial insights into catalytic processes, so long as care is exercised in the design of experiments. Forging a secure link between two radically different pressure regimes is the major challenge, which we illustrate here with reference to the vitally important ammonia synthesis reaction, achieved industrially only under extremely high pressure.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/108/3/925.full.pdf

Hydrogenation of N over Fe{111}.

Coadsorption of oxygen and carbon monoxide on tungsten: Desorption spectra, electron stimulated desorption and field emission microscopy

Results obtained by a variety of techniques for the interaction of CO with polycrystalline W ribbons and with the (100) face of a W single crystal are presented and discussed. Desorption spectra from a W ribbon possess three peaks, designated α, β 1 an, β 2 which are kinetically characterized. From electron stimulated desorption (e.s.d.) studies on both W ribbons and W(100) it is concluded that the α desorption peak is a composite from two states, α 1 and α 2 which yield, respectively, CO + and O + ; the ionic e.s.d. cross-section for the β states is negligible by comparison with that for the α states. An interconversion from α 1 to α 2 , occurring during both thermal and electronic depopulation of the α 1 state, is quantitatively characterized. Reflexion-absorption infrared spectroscopy reveals a band at ca . 211000 m -1 for CO on polycrystalline W, and this is shown to be associated with the carbon-oxygen vibration in the α states. Oxygen is rapidly adsorbed by a CO-saturated W surface, with a preferential depletion of α 1 -CO. The β-CO states are not depleted by O 2 , but undergo ( a ) complete isotopic mixing with coadsorbed oxygen, and ( b ) convergence into a single monotonic desorption peak appearing at the β 1 peak position. The results are consistent with dissociative adsorption in the β states.

David A. King

Papers

Broadband femtosecond sum-frequency spectroscopy of CO on Ru{101̄0} in the frequency and time domains

Sticking probability and surface stoichiometry for oxygen on silver films

Hydrogenation of N over Fe{111}.

Coadsorption of oxygen and carbon monoxide on tungsten: Desorption spectra, electron stimulated desorption and field emission microscopy

Chemisorption of carbon monoxide on tungsten