Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a significant burden on global economies and public health. Their emergence is thought to be driven largely by socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, but no comparative study has explicitly analysed these linkages to understand global temporal and spatial patterns of EIDs. Here we analyse a database of 335 EID 'events' (origins of EIDs) between 1940 and 2004, and demonstrate non-random global patterns. EID events have risen significantly over time after controlling for reporting bias, with their peak incidence (in the 1980s) concomitant with the HIV pandemic. EID events are dominated by zoonoses (60.3% of EIDs): the majority of these (71.8%) originate in wildlife (for example, severe acute respiratory virus, Ebola virus), and are increasing significantly over time. We find that 54.3% of EID events are caused by bacteria or rickettsia, reflecting a large number of drug-resistant microbes in our database. Our results confirm that EID origins are significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, and provide a basis for identifying regions where new EIDs are most likely to originate (emerging disease 'hotspots'). They also reveal a substantial risk of wildlife zoonotic and vector-borne EIDs originating at lower latitudes where reporting effort is low. We conclude that global resources to counter disease emergence are poorly allocated, with the majority of the scientific and surveillance effort focused on countries from where the next important EID is least likely to originate.

/pdf/global-trends-in-emerging-infectious-diseases-374pmkz71y.pdf

Global trends in emerging infectious diseases

Decades ago, discussion of an impending global pandemic of obesity was thought of as heresy. But in the 1970s, diets began to shift towards increased reliance upon processed foods, increased away-from-home food intake, and increased use of edible oils and sugar-sweetened beverages. Reductions in physical activity and increases in sedentary behavior began to be seen as well. The negative effects of these changes began to be recognized in the early 1990s, primarily in low- and middle-income populations, but they did not become clearly acknowledged until diabetes, hypertension, and obesity began to dominate the globe. Now, rapid increases in the rates of obesity and overweight are widely documented, from urban and rural areas in the poorest countries of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to populations in countries with higher income levels. Concurrent rapid shifts in diet and activity are well documented as well. An array of large-scale programmatic and policy measures are being explored in a few countries; however, few countries are engaged in serious efforts to prevent the serious dietary challenges being faced.

/pdf/global-nutrition-transition-and-the-pandemic-of-obesity-in-5cnfnv71ot.pdf

Global nutrition transition and the pandemic of obesity in developing countries

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(09)60935-1.pdf

Managing the health effects of climate change

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3].

https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1192&context=scipapers

Coastal systems and low-lying areas

The livestock sector globally is highly dynamic. In developing countries, it is evolving in response to rapidly increasing demand for livestock products. In developed countries, demand for livestock products is stagnating, while many production systems are increasing their efficiency and environmental sustainability. Historical changes in the demand for livestock products have been largely driven by human population growth, income growth and urbanization and the production response in different livestock systems has been associated with science and technology as well as increases in animal numbers. In the future, production will increasingly be affected by competition for natural resources, particularly land and water, competition between food and feed and by the need to operate in a carbon-constrained economy. Developments in breeding, nutrition and animal health will continue to contribute to increasing potential production and further efficiency and genetic gains. Livestock production is likely to be increasingly affected by carbon constraints and environmental and animal welfare legislation. Demand for livestock products in the future could be heavily moderated by socio-economic factors such as human health concerns and changing socio-cultural values. There is considerable uncertainty as to how these factors will play out in different regions of the world in the coming decades.

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2010.0134

Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects

Electron stimulated desorption (ESD) studies of oxygen chemisorbed on tungsten have revealed a large isotope effect in the desorption of ions. The probability of desorption of 16O+ was found to be a factor of ∼1.5 greater than the probability of desorption of 18O+ upon bombardment of the adsorbed layer by 100‐eV electrons. This observation is quantitatively consistent with the ESD mechanism proposed independently by Redhead and by Menzel and Gomer. On the other hand, the small isotope effect observed in ESD “total” desorption does not agree with this mechanism; possible reasons for this are discussed.

Isotope Effect in Electron Stimulated Desorption: Oxygen Chemisorbed on Tungsten

The sustainability of large-scale biofuel production has recently been called into question in view of mounting concerns over the associated impact on land and water resources. As the most predominant biofuel today, ethanol produced from food crops such as corn in the US has been frequently criticised. Ethanol derived from cellulosic feedstocks is likely to overcome some of these drawbacks, but the production technology is yet to be commercialised. Sugarcane ethanol is the most efficient option in the short term, but its success in Brazil is difficult to replicate elsewhere. Agaves are attracting attention as potential ethanol feedstocks because of their many favourable characteristics such as high productivities and sugar content and their ability to grow in naturally water-limited environments. Here, we present the first life cycle energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) analysis for agave-derived ethanol. The results suggest that ethanol derived from agave is likely to be superior, or at least comparable, to that from corn, switchgrass and sugarcane in terms of energy and GHG balances, as well as in ethanol output and net GHG offset per unit land area. Our analysis highlights the promising opportunities for bioenergy production from agaves in arid or semi-arid regions with minimum pressure on food production and water resources.

Life cycle energy and greenhouse gas analysis for agave-derived bioethanol

Dependency on oil-derived fuels in various sectors, most notably in mobility, has left the global economy vulnerable to several macroeconomic economic side effects. Numerous studies have addressed the effect of price volatility on specific economic parameters. However, the current literature lacks a comprehensive review of the interactions between global macroeconomic performance and oil price volatility (OPV). Price volatility is intrinsic in commodity markets, but has been advancing at a faster rate in the crude oil market in comparison to other commodities over the past decade, reflecting the status of oil as the most globalised commodity. In this paper, the analytical literature review and analysis of the behavioral responses of macroeconomic agents to OPV shows that such volatility has several damaging and destabilizing macroeconomic impacts that will present a fundamental barrier to future sustainable economic growth if left unchecked. To ensure macroeconomic isolation from OPV, a combination of supply and demand-side policies have been recommended that can help to mitigate and build resilience to the economic uncertainty advanced by OPV.

Macroeconomic impacts of oil price volatility: mitigation and resilience

Advances made in the study of the diffusion of adsorbed species on single crystal surfaces are summarized. An appraisal of the techniques and methods of data treatment which have been developed for both macroscopic (single crystals cut to expose a given crystal plane) and microscopic (field emitter) surfaces is presented, and a brief survey is made of the data obtained for precursor, molecularly chemisorbed, and dissociatively chemisorbed states. The influence of lateral interactions between adatoms on diffusion parameters is explicitly examined in relation to recent results for O adatoms on W{110}. Finally, a brief survey is given of the importance of diffusion in other surfaces processes, such as the formation of ordered overlayers and adsorption and desorption kinetics.

Surface diffusion of adsorbed species: A review

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from passenger cars represent an important and growing contributor to climate change. Increasing the proportion of electric vehicles (EVs) in passenger car fleets could help to reduce these emissions, but their ability to do this depends on the fuel mix used in generating the electricity that energises EVs. This study analyzes the indirect well-to-wheels CO2 emissions from EVs when run in the US, the UK, and France and compares these to well-to-wheels emission data for a selection of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). The study also compares the well-to-wheels emissions of the existing passenger car fleet in each country to a hypothetical EV fleet with the average electricity generation requirements of the three EVs considered in this analysis.

David A. King

Papers

Isotope Effect in Electron Stimulated Desorption: Oxygen Chemisorbed on Tungsten

Life cycle energy and greenhouse gas analysis for agave-derived bioethanol

Macroeconomic impacts of oil price volatility: mitigation and resilience

Surface diffusion of adsorbed species: A review

Indirect emissions from electric vehicles: emissions from electricity generation