Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.

Climate change 2001: the scientific basis

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr−1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m−2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m−2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m−2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m−2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m−2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m−2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

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Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) accounts for a significant fraction of ambient tropospheric aerosol and a detailed knowledge of the formation, properties and transformation of SOA is therefore required to evaluate its impact on atmospheric processes, climate and human health. The chemical and physical processes associated with SOA formation are complex and varied, and, despite considerable progress in recent years, a quantitative and predictive understanding of SOA formation does not exist and therefore represents a major research challenge in atmospheric science. This review begins with an update on the current state of knowledge on the global SOA budget and is followed by an overview of the atmospheric degradation mechanisms for SOA precursors, gas-particle partitioning theory and the analytical techniques used to determine the chemical composition of SOA. A survey of recent laboratory, field and modeling studies is also presented. The following topical and emerging issues are highlighted and discussed in detail: molecular characterization of biogenic SOA constituents, condensed phase reactions and oligomerization, the interaction of atmospheric organic components with sulfuric acid, the chemical and photochemical processing of organics in the atmospheric aqueous phase, aerosol formation from real plant emissions, interaction of atmospheric organic components with water, thermodynamics and mixtures in atmospheric models. Finally, the major challenges ahead in laboratory, field and modeling studies of SOA are discussed and recommendations for future research directions are proposed.

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The formation, properties and impact of secondary organic aerosol: current and emerging issues

Climate change 2014 - Synthesis Report

The present paper reviews existing knowledge with regard to Organic Aerosol (OA) of importance for global climate modelling and defines critical gaps needed to reduce the involved uncertainties. All pieces required for the representation of OA in a global climate model are sketched out with special attention to Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA): The emission estimates of primary carbonaceous particles and SOA precursor gases are summarized. The up-to-date understanding of the chemical formation and transformation of condensable organic material is outlined. Knowledge on the hygroscopicity of OA and measurements of optical properties of the organic aerosol constituents are summarized. The mechanisms of interactions of OA with clouds and dry and wet removal processes parameterisations in global models are outlined. This information is synthesized to provide a continuous analysis of the flow from the emitted material to the atmosphere up to the point of the climate impact of the produced organic aerosol. The sources of uncertainties at each step of this process are highlighted as areas that require further studies.

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Organic aerosol and global climate modelling: a review

A series of outdoor chamber experiments has been used to establish and characterize the significant atmospheric aerosol-forming potentials of the most prevalent biogenic hydrocarbons emitted by vegetation. These compounds were also studied to elucidate the effect of structure on aerosol yield for these types of compounds. Because oxidation products partition between the gas and aerosol phases, the aerosol yields of the parent biogenic hydrocarbons depend on the concentration of organic aerosol into which these products can be absorbed. For organic mass concentrations between 5 and 40 µg m^(-3), mass-based yields in photooxidation experiments range from 17 to 67% for sesquiterpenes, from 2 to 23% for cyclic diolefins, from 2 to 15% for bicyclic olefins, and from 2 to 6% for the acyclic triolefin ocimene. In these photooxidation experiments, hydroxyl and nitrate radicals and ozone can contribute to consumption of the parent hydrocarbon. For bicyclic olefins (α-pinene, β-pinene, Δ^3-carene, and sabinene), experiments were also carried out at daytime temperatures in a dark system in the presence of ozone or nitrate radicals alone. For ozonolysis experiments, resulting aerosol yields are less dependent on organic mass concentration, when compared to full, sunlight-driven photooxidation. Nitrate radical experiments exhibit extremely high conversion to aerosol for β-pinene, sabinene, and Δ^3-carene. The relative importance of aerosol formation from each type of reaction for bicyclic olefin photooxidation is elucidated.

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Organic aerosol formation from the oxidation of biogenic hydrocarbons

Atmospheric oxidation of monoterpenes contributes to formation of tropospheric ozone and secondary organic aerosol, but their products are poorly characterized. In this work, we report a series of outdoor smog chamber experiments to investigate both gaseous and particulate products in the ozone oxidation of four monoterpenes: α-pinene, β-pinene, Δ^3-carene, and sabinene. More than ten oxygenated products are detected and identified in each monoterpene/O_3 reaction by coupling derivatization techniques and GC/MS detection. A denuder/filter pack sampling system is used to separate and simultaneously collect gas and aerosol samples. The identified products, consisting of compounds containing carbonyl, hydroxyl, and carboxyl functional groups, are estimated to account for about 34–50%, 57%, 29–67%, and 24% of the reacted carbon mass for β-pinene, sabinene, α-pinene, and Δ^3-carene, respectively. The identified individual products account for >83%, ∼100%, >90%, and 61% of the aerosol mass produced in the ozone reaction of β-pinene, sabinene, α-pinene, and Δ^3-carene. The uncertainty in the yield data is estimated to be ∼ ±50%. Many of the products partition between gas and aerosol phases, and their gas-aerosol partitioning coefficients are determined and reported here. Reaction schemes are suggested to account for the products observed.

Gas-phase ozone oxidation of monoterpenes: Gaseous and particulate products

The results from a series of outdoor chamber experiments establishing the atmospheric aerosol-forming potential of fourteen terpenoid hydrocarbons have been used to estimate the annual amount of secondary organic aerosol formed globally from compounds emitted by vegetation. Hydroxyl radical, ozone, and nitrate radical oxidation each contribute to aerosol formation in full-photooxidation experiments; because oxidation by nitrate radical under ambient, remote conditions is likely to be negligible, parameters describing aerosol formation from hydroxyl radical and ozone reaction only are developed. Chamber results, temporally and spatially resolved, compound-specific estimates of biogenic hydrocarbon emissions, and hydroxyl radical and ozone fields are combined to lead to an estimate for atmospheric secondary organic aerosol formed annually from biogenic precursors of 18.5 Tg, a number smaller than the previously published estimate of 30–270 Tg [Andreae and Crutzen, 1997].

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Estimate of global atmospheric organic aerosol from oxidation of biogenic hydrocarbons

Elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and particulate matter (PM) emission rates are reported for a number of heavy heavy-duty diesel trucks (HHDDTs) and back-up generators (BUGs) operating under real-world conditions. Emission rates were determined using a unique mobile emissions laboratory (MEL) equipped with a total capture full-scale dilution tunnel connected directly to the diesel engine via a snorkel. This paper shows that PM, EC, and OC emission rates are strongly dependent on the mode of vehicle operation; highway, arterial, congested, and idling conditions were simulated by following the speed trace from the California Air Resources Board HHDDT cycle. Emission rates for BUGs are reported as a function of engine load at constant speed using the ISO 8178B Cycle D2. The EC, OC, and PM emission rates were determined to be highly variable for the HHDDTs. It was determined that the per mile emission rate of OC from a HHDDT in congested traffic is 8.1 times higher than that of an HHDDT in cruise or highway speed conditions and 1.9 times higher for EC. EC/OC ratios for BUGs (which generally operate at steady states) and HHDDTs show marked differences, indicating that the transient nature of engine operation dictates the EC/OC ratio. Overall, this research shows that the EC/OC ratio varies widely for diesel engines in trucks and BUGs and depends strongly on the operating cycle. The findings reported here have significant implications in the application of chemical mass balance modeling, diesel risk assessment, and control strategies such as the Diesel Risk Reduction Program.

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Emission Rates of Particulate Matter and Elemental and Organic Carbon from In-Use Diesel Engines

A state-of-the-art chamber facility is described for investigation of atmospheric aerosol chemistry. Dual 28 m^3 FEP Teflon film chambers are used to simulate atmospheric conditions in which aerosol formation may occur. This facility provides the flexibility to investigate dark, single oxidant reactions as well as full photochemical simulations. This paper discusses the environmental control implemented as well as the gas-phase and aerosol-phase instrumentation used to monitor atmospheric aerosol formation and growth. Physical processes occurring in the chamber and procedures for estimating secondary organic aerosol formation during reaction are described. Aerosol formation and evolution protocols at varying relative humidity conditions are presented.

David R. Cocker

Papers

Organic aerosol formation from the oxidation of biogenic hydrocarbons

Gas-phase ozone oxidation of monoterpenes: Gaseous and particulate products

Estimate of global atmospheric organic aerosol from oxidation of biogenic hydrocarbons

Emission Rates of Particulate Matter and Elemental and Organic Carbon from In-Use Diesel Engines

State-of-the-art chamber facility for studying atmospheric aerosol chemistry.