Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

The global decline in estuarine and coastal ecosystems (ECEs) is affecting a number of critical benefits, or ecosystem services. We review the main ecological services across a variety of ECEs, including marshes, mangroves, nearshore coral reefs, seagrass beds, and sand beaches and dunes. Where possible, we indicate estimates of the key economic values arising from these services, and discuss how the natural variability of ECEs impacts their benefits, the synergistic relationships of ECEs across seascapes, and management implications. Although reliable valuation estimates are beginning to emerge for the key services of some ECEs, such as coral reefs, salt marshes, and mangroves, many of the important benefits of seagrass beds and sand dunes and beaches have not been assessed properly. Even for coral reefs, marshes, and mangroves, important ecological services have yet to be valued reliably, such as cross-ecosystem nutrient transfer (coral reefs), erosion control (marshes), and pollution control (mangroves). An important issue for valuing certain ECE services, such as coastal protection and habitat-fishery linkages, is that the ecological functions underlying these services vary spatially and temporally. Allowing for the connectivity between ECE habitats also may have important implications for assessing the ecological functions underlying key ecosystems services, such coastal protection, control of erosion, and habitat-fishery linkages. Finally, we conclude by suggesting an action plan for protecting and/or enhancing the immediate and longer-term values of ECE services. Because the connectivity of ECEs across land-sea gradients also influences the provision of certain ecosystem services, management of the entire seascape will be necessary to preserve such synergistic effects. Other key elements of an action plan include further ecological and economic collaborative research on valuing ECE services, improving institutional and legal frameworks for management, controlling and regulating destructive economic activities, and developing ecological restoration options.

https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1890/10-1510.1

The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

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The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

Ecosystem management that attempts to maximize the production of one ecosystem service often results in substantial declines in the provision of other ecosystem services. For this reason, recent studies have called for increased attention to development of a theoretical understanding behind the relationships among ecosystem services. Here, we review the literature on ecosystem services and propose a typology of relationships between ecosystem services based on the role of drivers and the interactions between services. We use this typology to develop three propositions to help drive ecological science towards a better understanding of the relationships among multiple ecosystem services. Research which aims to understand the relationships among multiple ecosystem services and the mechanisms behind these relationships will improve our ability to sustainably manage landscapes to provide multiple ecosystem services.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01387.x

Understanding relationships among multiple ecosystem services.

Many of the world's deltas are densely populated and intensively farmed. An assessment of recent publications indicates that the majority of these deltas have been subject to intense flooding over the past decade, and that this threat will grow as global sea-level rises and as the deltas subside. Many of the world's largest deltas are densely populated and heavily farmed. Yet many of their inhabitants are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding and conversions of their land to open ocean. The vulnerability is a result of sediment compaction from the removal of oil, gas and water from the delta's underlying sediments, the trapping of sediment in reservoirs upstream and floodplain engineering in combination with rising global sea level. Here we present an assessment of 33 deltas chosen to represent the world's deltas. We find that in the past decade, 85% of the deltas experienced severe flooding, resulting in the temporary submergence of 260,000 km2. We conservatively estimate that the delta surface area vulnerable to flooding could increase by 50% under the current projected values for sea-level rise in the twenty-first century. This figure could increase if the capture of sediment upstream persists and continues to prevent the growth and buffering of the deltas.

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Sinking deltas due to human activities

Geomorphology and Global Environmental Change: Estuaries, coastal marshes, tidal flats and coastal dunes

A simulation model examined the influence of barrier islands on the estuarine ecosystems of Louisiana. Coastal barrier islands can act. as a first line of protection for inland wetlands and human communities against storm waves and wind. These geomorphologic features provide wave reduction, flooding attenuation, and preservation of salinity gradients. Therefore, the model assessed the importance of the islands' relative location within the estuary. A hydrodynamic model computed wave height and circulation patterns for a test case. The results of this numerical experiment were then used to compute habitat composition and faunal response under holistic methodologies (e.g., regional Habitat Suitability Index [HSI] for a particular species). This analysis and simulation is presented as a first step in the development of a comprehensive model of estuary management with emphasis on barrier island restoration and preservation.

Using models to evaluate the effects of barrier islands on estuarine hydrodynamics and habitats : A numerical experiment

The ability, or lack thereof, for wetlands in coastal Louisiana to maintain elevation capital has been well documented in the literature to be a function of local and regional factors as well as environmental conditions. The Integrated Compartment Model (ICM) framework developed for the state of Louisiana’s Coastal Master Plan models hydrologic, vegetation, and wetland elevation dynamics and captures regional and local dynamics of wetland elevation, inundation and sedimentation processes. It provides insights into the relative sensitivities of wetland evolution to environmental drivers under uncertain future environmental conditions. A systematic, and computationally efficient modeling exercise was conducted to test coastal marsh survival across a wide range of possible future relative sea level rise rate scenarios. Model results indicate a diverse response with respect to sediment deposition and marsh survival driven by regional subsidence rates and proximity to suspended sediment sources. Sediment poor regions of coastal Louisiana are particularly sensitive to relative sea level rise under all but the most optimistic of future sea level rise rates simulated. Coastal marshes with high sediment availability fare much better under most scenarios tested, despite high rates of relative sea level rise.

Modeled Sediment Availability, Deposition, and Decadal Land Change in Coastal Louisiana Marshes under Future Relative Sea Level Rise Scenarios

Dredged material levees in coastal Louisiana are normally associated with pipeline canals or, more frequently, canals dredged through the wetlands to allow access to drilling locations for mineral extraction. The hydrologic impact on marshes behind the levee is of concern to coastal resource managers because of the potential impact on sediment transport and deposition, and the effect on estuarine organism access to valuable nursery habitat. This study examined the effects of gaps in dredged material levees, compared to continuous levees and natural channel banks, on these two aspects of marsh function. Field studies for sediment deposition were conducted biweekly for a year, and nekton samples were collected in spring and fall. Variation in nekton density among study arears and landscape types was great in part because of the inherent sampling gear issues and in part because of differences in characteristics among areas. Nekton densities were generally greater in natural compared to leveed and gapped landscapes. Differences in landscape type did not explain patterns in sediment deposition. The gaps examined appear to be too restrictive of marsh flooding to provide efficient movements of floodwaters onto the marsh during moderate flooding events. The “trapping” effect of the levees increases sediment deposition during extreme events. Gapping material levees may be an effective method of partially restoring upper marsh connection to nekton, but this method may work best in lower elevation marshes where nekton use is greater.

https://gcrl.usm.edu/cv/peterson.mark/docs/Reed%20et%20al_Environmental%20management.pdf

Reducing the effects of dredged material levees on coastal marsh function: sediment deposition and nekton utilization.

Understanding changes in wave attenuation by emergent vegetation as wetlands degrade or accrete over time is crucial for incorporation of wetlands into holistic coastal risk management. Linked SLAMM and XBeach models were used to investigate potential future changes in wave attenuation over a 50-year period in a degrading, subtropical wetland and a prograding, temperate wetland. These contrasting systems also have differing management contexts and were contrasted to demonstrate how the linked models can provide management-relevant insights. Morphological development of wetlands for different scenarios of sea-level rise and accretion was simulated with SLAMM and then coupled with different vegetation characteristics to predict the influence on future wave attenuation using XBeach. The geomorphological context, subsidence, and accretion resulted in large predicted reductions in the extent of vegetated land (e.g., wetland) and changes in wave height reduction potential across the wetland. These were exacerbated by increases in sea-level from +0.217 m to +0.386 m over a 50-year period, especially at the lowest accretion rates in the degrading wetland. Mangrove vegetation increased wave attenuation within the degrading, subtropical, saline wetland, while grazing reduced wave attenuation in the temperate, prograding wetland. Coastal management decisions and actions, related to coastal vegetation type and structure, have the potential to change future wave attenuation at a spatial scale relevant to coastal protection planning. Therefore, a coastal management approach that includes disaster risk reduction, biodiversity, and climate change, can be informed by coastal modeling tools, such as those demonstrated here for two contrasting case studies.

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Denise J. Reed

Papers

Geomorphology and Global Environmental Change: Estuaries, coastal marshes, tidal flats and coastal dunes

Using models to evaluate the effects of barrier islands on estuarine hydrodynamics and habitats : A numerical experiment

Modeled Sediment Availability, Deposition, and Decadal Land Change in Coastal Louisiana Marshes under Future Relative Sea Level Rise Scenarios

Reducing the effects of dredged material levees on coastal marsh function: sediment deposition and nekton utilization.

Linking management planning for coastal wetlands to potential future wave attenuation under a range of relative sea-level rise scenarios.