The evolution and future of manufacturing: A review

The bullwhip effect: Progress, trends and directions

I provide an overview of the Fault Tree Analysis method.I review different extensions of fault trees.A number of model-based dependability analysis approaches are reviewed.I outline the future outlook for model-based dependability analysis. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a well-established and well-understood technique, widely used for dependability evaluation of a wide range of systems. Although many extensions of fault trees have been proposed, they suffer from a variety of shortcomings. In particular, even where software tool support exists, these analyses require a lot of manual effort. Over the past two decades, research has focused on simplifying dependability analysis by looking at how we can synthesise dependability information from system models automatically. This has led to the field of model-based dependability analysis (MBDA). Different tools and techniques have been developed as part of MBDA to automate the generation of dependability analysis artefacts such as fault trees. Firstly, this paper reviews the standard fault tree with its limitations. Secondly, different extensions of standard fault trees are reviewed. Thirdly, this paper reviews a number of prominent MBDA techniques where fault trees are used as a means for system dependability analysis and provides an insight into their working mechanism, applicability, strengths and challenges. Finally, the future outlook for MBDA is outlined, which includes the prospect of developing expert and intelligent systems for dependability analysis of complex open systems under the conditions of uncertainty.

https://hull-repository.worktribe.com/preview/582881/2018-02-04%2015186%20Kabir.pdf

An overview of fault tree analysis and its application in model based dependability analysis

Applications of Bayesian networks and Petri nets in safety, reliability, and risk assessments: A review

We find that approximately one third (29%) of independent inventors continue to spend money and 51% continue to spend time on projects after receiving highly diagnostic advice to cease effort. Using survey data from actual inventors, this paper studies the role of overconfidence, optimism, and the sunk-cost bias in these decisions. We find that inventors are more overconfident and optimistic than the general population. We also find that optimism and past expenditures increased perseverance after being told to quit, while overconfidence in judgment ability had no effect. After being told to quit, optimists spend 166% more than pessimists and those having already spent, for example, $10 000 spend another $10 000.

Inventor Perseverance after Being Told to Quit: The Role of Cognitive Biases

With the aim of a more effective representation of reliability assessment for real industry, in the last years concepts like dynamic fault trees (DFT) have gained the interest of many researchers and engineers (dealing with problems concerning safety management, design and development of new products, decision analysis and project management, maintenance of industrial plant, etc.). With the increased computational power of modern calculators is possible to achieve results with low modeling efforts and calculating time. Supported by the strong mathematical basis of state space models, the DFT technique has increased its popularity. Nevertheless, DFT analysis of real application has been more likely based on a specific case to case resolution procedure that often requires a great effort in terms of modeling by the human operator. Moreover, limitations like the state space explosion for increasing number of components, the constrain of using exponential distribution for all kind of basic events constituting any analyzed system and the ineffectiveness of modularization for DFT which exhibit dynamic gates at top levels without incurring in calculation and methodological errors are faces of these methodologies. In this paper we present a high level modeling framework that exceeds all these limitations, based on Monte Carlo simulation. It makes use of traditional DFT systemic modeling procedure and by replicating the true casual nature of the system can produce relevant results with low effort in term of modeling and computational time. A Simulink library that integrates Monte Carlo and FT methodologies for the calculation of DFT reliability has been developed, revealing new insights about the meaning of spare gates.

MatCarloRe: An integrated FT and Monte Carlo Simulink tool for the reliability assessment of dynamic fault tree

A human experiment on inventory decisions under supply uncertainty

Dynamic fault trees resolution: A conscious trade-off between analytical and simulative approaches

Discussion about the state of the art of expert systems and reliability assessment.Formalisation of the Stochastic Hybrid Fault Tree Automaton modelling technique.Conception of Hybrid Basic Events.Experimental Comparison of DFT and SHyFTA model for an industrial case study.Implementation of the SHyFTA in Simulink using MatCarloRE library. Reliability assessment of industrial processes is traditionally performed with RAMS techniques. Such techniques are static in nature because they are unable to consider the multi-state operational and failure nature of systems and the dynamic variations of the environment in which they operate.Stochastic Hybrid Automaton appears to overcome this weakness coupling a deterministic and a stochastic process and integrating the features of a dynamic system with the concepts of dynamic reliability.At the state of the art, no attempts to enhance a formal RAMS technique with dynamic reliability has been tried, nor a computer-aided tool that plays as expert system has been coded yet.The aim of this paper is to fill this gap with a simulation formalism and a modelling tool able to combine the Dynamic Fault Tree technique and the Stochastic Hybrid Automaton within the Simulink environment. To this aim the MatCarloRE toolbox was adapted to interact with a Simulink dynamic system. The resulting assembly represents an important step ahead for the delivering of a user-friendly computer-aided tool for the dynamic reliability.

Diego D'Urso

Papers

MatCarloRe: An integrated FT and Monte Carlo Simulink tool for the reliability assessment of dynamic fault tree

A human experiment on inventory decisions under supply uncertainty

Dynamic fault trees resolution: A conscious trade-off between analytical and simulative approaches

SHyFTA, a Stochastic Hybrid Fault Tree Automaton for the modelling and simulation of dynamic reliability problems

A Weibull-based compositional approach for hierarchical dynamic fault trees