世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

This Paper examines the process of development from an epoch of Malthusian stagnation to a state of sustained economic growth. The analysis focuses on recently advanced unified growth theories that capture the intricate evolution of income per capita, technology, and population over the course of human history. Deciphering the underlying forces that triggered the transition from stagnation to growth and the associated phenomenon of the great divergence in income per capita across countries has been widely viewed as one of the most significant challenges facing researchers in the field of growth and development. The inconsistency of non-unified growth models with the main characteristics of the process of development across most of human history induced growth theorists to advance an alternative theory that captures in a single unified framework the epoch of Malthusian stagnation, the modern era of sustained economic growth, and the recent transition between these distinct regimes. Unified growth theory reveals the underlying micro foundations that are consistent with the growth process over the entire history of the human species, enhancing the confidence in the viability of the theory, its predictions and policy implications for the growth process of less developed economies.

From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory

This thesis investigates the relationship between economic growth and financial development in developing countries over 1988-2001. Previous studies have generally used averaged data, for both developing and developed countries, and inappropriate estimation methods. In an attempt to reach some definitive conclusions, Generalised Method of Moments dynamic estimation is used with a newly collected panel of annual data to assess the relationship. The results show that while banks performance has a negative impact on growth, stock markets positively promote growth. To reach an overall conclusion about the impact of finance on growth and to solve the problems associated with the existence of multicollinearity among the different measures of financial development, principal components analysis is used to generate new, comprehensive measures of financial development. In assessing the link between the new measures and financial development and growth, the results support the existence of an overall positive relationship. The thesis also examines the behaviour of interest rates in developing and industrialised countries using individual and panel unit root tests. The results are sensitive to the choice of the test, country and time unit.

Stock markets, banks and economic growth

This research advances and empirically establishes the hypothesis that, in the course of the prehistoric exodus of Homo sapiens out of Africa, variation in migratory distance to various settlements across the globe affected genetic diversity and has had a persistent humpshaped effect on comparative economic development, reflecting the trade-off between the beneficial and the detrimental effects of diversity on productivity. While the low diversity of Native American populations and the high diversity of African populations have been detrimental for the development of these regions, the intermediate levels of diversity associated with European and Asian populations have been conducive for development. (JEL N10, N30, N50, O10, O50, Z10) Prevailing hypotheses of comparative economic development highlight various determinants of the remarkable inequality in income per capita across the globe. The significance of geographical, institutional, and cultural factors, human capital, ethnolinguistic fractionalization, colonialism, and globalization has been at the heart of a debate concerning the genesis of the astounding transformation in the pattern of comparative development over the past few centuries. While early research focused on the proximate forces that contributed to the divergence in living

/pdf/the-out-of-africa-hypothesis-human-genetic-diversity-and-3doh09irj3.pdf

The 'Out of Africa' Hypothesis, Human Genetic Diversity, and Comparative Economic Development

We analyze the colonial land revenue institutions set up by the British in India, and show that differences in historical property rights institutions lead to sustained differences in economic outcomes Areas in which proprietary rights in land were historically given to landlords have significantly lower agricultural investments and productivity in the post-independence period than areas in which these rights were given to the cultivators These areas also have significantly lower investments in health and education These differences are not driven by omitted variables or endogeneity problems; they probably arise because differences in historical institutions lead to very different policy choices

/pdf/history-institutions-and-economic-performance-the-legacy-of-5epbmei85c.pdf

History, institutions and economic performance : the legacy of colonial land tenure systems in India

This paper suggests that inequality in the distribution of landownership adversely affected the emergence of human-capital promoting institutions (e.g. public schooling), and thus the pace and the nature of the transition from an agricultural to an industrial economy, contributing to the emergence of the great divergence in income per capita across countries. The prediction of the theory regarding the adverse effect of the concentration of landownership on education expenditure is established empirically based on evidence from the beginning of the 20th century in the U.S.

/pdf/inequality-in-landownership-the-emergence-of-human-capital-414wk8o0z7.pdf

Inequality in Landownership, the Emergence of Human-Capital Promoting Institutions, and the Great Divergence

We document a strong positive relationship between natural resource exports and urbanization in a sample of 116 developing nations over the period 1960–2010. In countries that are heavily dependent on resource exports, urbanization appears to be concentrated in “consumption cities” where the economies consist primarily of non-tradable services. These contrast with “production cities” that are more dependent on manufacturing in countries that have industrialized. Consumption cities in resource exporters also appear to perform worse along several measures of welfare. We offer a simple model of structural change that can explain the observed patterns of urbanization and the associated differences in city types. We note that although the development literature often assumes that urbanization is synonymous with industrialization, patterns differ markedly across developing countries. We discuss several possible implications for policy.

/pdf/urbanization-with-and-without-industrialization-2aw9imnyam.pdf

Urbanization with and without industrialization

http://www.uh.edu/~devollra/agsectordraft081407.pdf

How important are dual economy effects for aggregate productivity

Previous research has suggested that there is a relationship between land distribution and productivity in agriculture. This paper estimates a cross-country agricultural production function that includes for the first time measures of land distribution as elements of productivity. The measures capture both the size distribution of holdings within a country, and the availability of holdings across the agricultural population. The estimates suggest a very large and significant role for the size distribution of holdings. This role, though, does not appear to arise because of the decreasing returns to farm size that are often identified in micro-level research. The results indicate that improvements in the distribution of agricultural land are a potential source of gains in agricultural productivity, and income per capita, across countries.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID694768_code332204.pdf?abstractid=694768&mirid=1

Dietrich Vollrath

Papers

Inequality in Landownership, the Emergence of Human-Capital Promoting Institutions, and the Great Divergence

Urbanization with and without industrialization

How important are dual economy effects for aggregate productivity

Land Distribution and International Agricultural Productivity

Urbanization without growth in historical perspective