Dirk Brockmann

TL;DR: It is shown that human travelling behaviour can be described mathematically on many spatiotemporal scales by a two-parameter continuous-time random walk model to a surprising accuracy, and concluded that human travel on geographical scales is an ambivalent and effectively superdiffusive process.

TL;DR: It is shown that complex spatiotemporal patterns can be reduced to surprisingly simple, homogeneous wave propagation patterns, if conventional geographic distance is replaced by a probabilistically motivated effective distance, in the context of global, air-traffic–mediated epidemics.

TL;DR: A probabilistic model is introduced that describes the worldwide spread of infectious diseases and shows that a forecast of the geographical spread of epidemics is indeed possible, taking into account national and international civil aviation traffic.

TL;DR: A parsimonious model is introduced that captures both quarantine of symptomatic infected individuals, as well as population-wide isolation practices in response to containment policies or behavioral changes, and shows that the model captures the observed growth behavior accurately.

TL;DR: A parsimonious model is introduced that captures both, quarantine of symptomatic infected individuals as well as population wide isolation in response to mitigation policies or behavioral changes, and implies that the observed scaling law in confirmed cases is a direct signature of effective contaiment strategies and/or systematic behavioral changes that affect a substantial fraction of the susceptible population.