世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the US economy using seven macro-economic time series. The model incorporates many types of real and nominal frictions and seven types of structural shocks. We show that this model is able to compete with Bayesian Vector Autoregression models in out-of-sample prediction. We investigate the relative empirical importance of the various frictions. Finally, using the estimated model we address a number of key issues in business cycle analysis: What are the sources of business cycle fluctuations? Can the model explain the cross-correlation between output and inflation? What are the effects of productivity on hours worked? What are the sources of the "Great Moderation"?

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Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach

/pdf/the-theory-of-industrial-organization-19bejph0ej.pdf

The Theory of Industrial Organization

The End of History and the Last Man

We investigate the role of deeply rooted pre-colonial ethnic institutions in shaping comparative regional development within African countries. We combine information on the spatial distribution of ethnicities before colonization with regional variation in contemporary economic performance, as proxied by satellite images of light density at night. We document a strong association between pre-colonial ethnic political centralization and regional development. This pattern is not driven by differences in local geographic features or by other observable ethnic-specific cultural and economic variables. The strong positive association between pre-colonial political complexity and contemporary development also holds within pairs of adjacent ethnic homelands with different legacies of pre-colonial political institutions.

/pdf/pre-colonial-ethnic-institutions-and-contemporary-african-146jk0svzg.pdf

Pre-colonial Ethnic Institutions and Contemporary African Development

This article challenges cross-sectional findings that democracy has a negligible effect on growth. We employ a new dataset of political transitions during the Third Wave of Democratisation and examine the within effect of democratisation in countries that abandoned autocracy and consolidated representative institutions. The panel estimates imply that on average democratisations are associated with a 1% increase in annual per capita growth. The dynamic analysis reveals that: while during the transition growth is slow, in the medium and long run it stabilises at a higher level. This evidence favours development theories of democratic rule and Friedrich Hayek (1960)s idea that the merits of democracy appear in the long run. Leading politicians and commentators have argued that democratisation will bring prosperity and growth into pariah and economically poorly performing countries. 1 Others, however, remain sceptical, pointing to the mixed and inconclusive empirical evidence. The old debate dating back to Plato and Aristotle, on which political regime is socially and economically optimal arises again. This debate is not purely academic and philosophical as it has important policy implications. In the last thirty years, the world has experienced an unprecedented move towards democratic institutions. Influential policy makers and scholars urge Western authorities to foster democratic movements in totalitarian countries; see The Economist article Philosophers and Kings (June 19th 2003). Yet the question remains: Will democratisation bring economic growth? To assess the average growth effect of a successful democratic transition we analyse the evolution of annual real per capita GDP growth before and after incidents of permanent democratic reform in the 1960‐2003 period. In our analysis we exploit a newly constructed dataset of permanent democratisations during the so-called Third Wave of Democratisation and the 1990s when many former socialist countries moved towards representative rule. The panel results reveal new evidence that contrast with the previous, mainly cross-sectional, work. First, conditioning on time-invariant country characteristics and global shocks, a permanent democratisation is associated with approximately a one half to one per cent increment in annual real per capita GDP growth. Second, a dynamic J-shaped effect emerges with considerable (though not * This article is a major revision of an earlier paper titled Aristotle Was Right: Stable Democracy Fosters

Democratisation and growth

We document that countries with higher initial education levels experienced faster value-added and employment growth in schooling-intensive industries in the 1980s and 1990s. This effect is robust to controls for other determinants of international specialization and becomes stronger when we focus on economies open to international trade. Our finding is consistent with schooling fostering the adoption of new technologies if such technologies are skilled-labor augmenting, as was the case in the 1980s and the 1990s. In line with international specialization theory, we also find that countries where education levels increased rapidly experienced stronger shifts in production toward schooling-intensive industries.

/pdf/human-capital-the-structure-of-production-and-growth-398ylsivqr.pdf

Human Capital, the Structure of Production and Growth

https://isiarticles.com/bundles/Article/pre/pdf/11660.pdf

What drives international financial flows? Politics, institutions and other determinants

We investigate the role of national institutions on subnational African development in a novel framework that accounts both for local geography and cultural-genetic traits. We exploit the fact that the political boundaries in the eve of African independence partitioned more than two hundred ethnic groups across adjacent countries subjecting similar cultures, residing in homogeneous geographic areas, to different formal institutions. Using both a matching-type and a spatial regression discontinuity approach we show that differences in countrywide institutional structures across the national border do not explain within-ethnicity differences in economic performance, as captured by satellite images of light density. The average non-effect of national institutions on ethnic development masks considerable heterogeneity partially driven by the diminishing role of national institutions in areas further from the capital cities.

Elias Papaioannou

Papers

Pre-colonial Ethnic Institutions and Contemporary African Development

Democratisation and growth

Human Capital, the Structure of Production and Growth

What drives international financial flows? Politics, institutions and other determinants

National Institutions and Subnational Development in Africa