Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

Beginning with Emlen (1966) and MacArthur and Pianka (1966) and extending through the last ten years, several authors have sought to predict the foraging behavior of animals by means of mathematical models. These models are very similar,in that they all assume that the fitness of a foraging animal is a function of the efficiency of foraging measured in terms of some "currency" (Schoener, 1971) -usually energy- and that natural selection has resulted in animals that forage so as to maximize this fitness. As a result of these similarities, the models have become known as "optimal foraging models"; and the theory that embodies them, "optimal foraging theory." The situations to which optimal foraging theory has been applied, with the exception of a few recent studies, can be divided into the following four categories: (1) choice by an animal of which food types to eat (i.e., optimal diet); (2) choice of which patch type to feed in (i.e., optimal patch choice); (3) optimal allocation of time to different patches; and (4) optimal patterns and speed of movements. In this review we discuss each of these categories separately, dealing with both the theoretical developments and the data that permit tests of the predictions. The review is selective in the sense that we emphasize studies that either develop testable predictions or that attempt to test predictions in a precise quantitative manner. We also discuss what we see to be some of the future developments in the area of optimal foraging theory and how this theory can be related to other areas of biology. Our general conclusion is that the simple models so far formulated are supported are supported reasonably well by available data and that we are optimistic about the value both now and in the future of optimal foraging theory. We argue, however, that these simple models will requre much modification, espicially to deal with situations that either cannot easily be put into one or another of the above four categories or entail currencies more complicated that just energy.

Citation classic - optimal foraging - a selective review of theory and tests

Mathematical modelling of the movement of animals, micro-organisms and cells is of great relevance in the fields of biology, ecology and medicine. Movement models can take many different forms, but the most widely used are based on the extensions of simple random walk processes. In this review paper, our aim is twofold: to introduce the mathematics behind random walks in a straightforward manner and to explain how such models can be used to aid our understanding of biological processes. We introduce the mathematical theory behind the simple random walk and explain how this relates to Brownian motion and diffusive processes in general. We demonstrate how these simple models can be extended to include drift and waiting times or be used to calculate first passage times. We discuss biased random walks and show how hyperbolic models can be used to generate correlated random walks. We cover two main applications of the random walk model. Firstly, we review models and results relating to the movement, dispersal and population redistribution of animals and micro-organisms. This includes direct calculation of mean squared displacement, mean dispersal distance, tortuosity measures, as well as possible limitations of these model approaches. Secondly, oriented movement and chemotaxis models are reviewed. General hyperbolic models based on the linear transport equation are introduced and we show how a reinforced random walk can be used to model movement where the individual changes its environment. We discuss the applications of these models in the context of cell migration leading to blood vessel growth (angiogenesis). Finally, we discuss how the various random walk models and approaches are related and the connections that underpin many of the key processes involved.

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsif.2008.0014

Random walk models in biology.

This book treats nonlinear dynamics in both Hamiltonian and dissipative systems. The emphasis is on the mechanics for generating chaotic motion, methods of calculating the transitions from regular to chaotic motion, and the dynamical and statistical properties of the dynamics when it is chaotic. The book is intended as a self consistent treatment of the subject at the graduate level and as a reference for scientists already working in the field. It emphasizes both methods of calculation and results. It is accessible to physicists and engineers without training in modern mathematics. The new edition brings the subject matter in a rapidly expanding field up to date, and has greatly expanded the treatment of dissipative dynamics to include most important subjects. It can be used as a graduate text for a two semester course covering both Hamiltonian and dissipative dynamics.

Regular and Chaotic Dynamics

Diffusion and ecological problems : mathematical models

Antarctic Bottom Water of the world ocean is derived from dense Shelf Water that is carried downslope by gravity currents at specific sites along the Antarctic margins. Data gathered by the AnSlope and CLIMA programs reveal the presence of energetic gravity currents that are formed over the western continental slope of the Ross Sea when High Salinity Shelf Water exits the shelf through Drygalski Trough. Joides Trough, immediately to the east, offers an additional escape route for less saline Shelf Water, while the Glomar Challenger Trough still farther east is a major pathway for export of the once supercooled low-salinity Ice Shelf Water that forms under the Ross Ice Shelf. The Drygalski Trough gravity currents increase in thickness from ∼100 to ∼400 m on proceeding downslope from ∼600 m (the shelf break) to 1200 m (upper slope) sea floor depth, while turning sharply to the west in response to the Coriolis force during their descent. The mean current pathway trends ∼35° downslope from isobaths. Benthic-layer current and thickness are correlated with the bottom water salinity, which exerts the primary control over the benthic-layer density. A 1-year time series of bottom-water current and hydrographic properties obtained on the slope near the 1000 m isobath indicates episodic pulses of Shelf Water export through Drygalski Trough. These cold ( 34.75) pulses correlate with strong downslope bottom flow. Extreme examples occurred during austral summer/fall 2003, comprising concentrated High Salinity Shelf Water (−1.9 °C; 34.79) and approaching 1.5 m s−1 at descent angles as large as ∼60° relative to the isobaths. Such events were most common during November–May, consistent with a northward shift in position of the dense Shelf Water during austral summer. The coldest, saltiest bottom water was measured from mid-April to mid-May 2003. The summer/fall export of High Salinity Shelf Water observed in 2004 was less than that seen in 2003. This difference, if real, may reflect the influence of the large iceberg C-19 over Drygalski Trough until its departure in mid-May 2003, when there was a marked decrease in the coldest, saltiest gravity current adjacent to Drygalski Trough. Northward transport of cold, saline, recently ventilated Antarctic Bottom Water observed in March 2004 off Cape Adare was ∼1.7 Sv, including ∼0.4 Sv of High Salinity Shelf Water.

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~agordon/publications/Gordon_Ross_GravCurr_DSR09.pdf

Western Ross Sea continental slope gravity currents

Satellite data show a steady increase, in the last decades, of the surface temperature (upper few millimetres of the water surface) of the Mediterranean Sea. Reports of mass mortalities of benthic marine invertebrates increased in the same period. Some local studies interpreted the two phenomena in a cause-effect fashion. However, a basin-wide picture of temperature changes combined with a systematic assessment on invertebrate mass mortalities was still lacking. Both the thermal structure of the water column in the Mediterranean Sea over the period 1945–2011 and all documented invertebrate mass mortality events in the basin are analysed to ascertain if: 1- documented mass mortalities occurred under conditions of positive temperature trends at basin scale, and 2- atypical thermal conditions were registered at the smaller spatial and temporal scale of mass mortality events. The thermal structure of the shallow water column over the last 67 years was reconstructed using data from three public sources: MEDAR-MEDATLAS, World Ocean Database, MFS-VOS programme. A review of the mass mortality events of benthic invertebrates at Mediterranean scale was also carried out. The analysis of in situ temperature profiles shows that the Mediterranean Sea changed in a non-homogeneous fashion. The frequency of mass mortalities is increasing. The areas subjected to these events correspond to positive thermal anomalies. Statistically significant temperature trends in the upper layers of the Mediterranean Sea show an increase of up to 0.07°C/yr for a large fraction of the basin. Mass mortalities are consistent with both the temperature increase at basin scale and the thermal changes at local scale, up to 5.2°C. Our research supports the existence of a causal link between positive thermal anomalies and observed invertebrate mass mortalities in the Mediterranean Sea, invoking focused mitigation initiatives in sensitive areas.

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Global warming and mass mortalities of benthic invertebrates in the Mediterranean Sea.

Rapid descent of dense Drygalski Trough (western Ross Sea, Antarctica) shelf water over the continental slope, within 100 to 250 m thick benthic plumes, is described. Speeds of up to 1.0 m/s are recorded flowing at an average angle of 35° to the isobaths, entraining ambient Lower Circumpolar Deep Water en route. This process is predominant in determining the concentration and placement of the shelf water injected into the deep sea as a precursor Antarctic Bottom Water. Nonetheless, a 4-hour duration pulse of undiluted shelf water was observed at depth (1407 m) directly north of the Drygalski Trough, moving at around 90 degrees to isobaths, and at a speed of 1.4 m/s. Thus the export of Ross Sea shelf water to the deep sea is accomplished within plumes descending at moderate angle to isobaths, punctuated by rapid downhill cascades.

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Energetic plumes over the western Ross Sea continental slope

The surface transport properties in the Adriatic Sea, a semienclosed subbasin of the Mediterranean Sea, have been studied using a drifter dataset in the period December 1994–March 1996. Three main points have been addressed. First, the exchange between southern and northern regions and between deep and coastal areas have been studied, focusing on the role of topography. A significant cross-topography or cross-shelf exchange has been found, probably due to the direct wind forcing and to the influence of stratification that isolates the surface flow from bottom effects, especially in the open sea. Second, a Lagrangian transport model with parameters derived from the data has been implemented. Simulated particles have been compared with drifter data with positive results. The model is found to be able to reproduce reality with good approximation, except for a specific advective event during the late summer season. Finally, the residence timescale T, that is, the average time spent by a surface parti...

Transport Properties in the Adriatic Sea as Deduced from Drifter Data

The surface circulation in the central Mediterranean, including the Sicily Channel, the southern Tyrrhenian and western Ionian seas, is studied using the data of more than 150 satellite-tracked drifters for the period spanning 1990–99. Pseudo-Eulerian maps of mean flow, eddy variability and energy levels are produced using all the data, the data sorted by seasons and the data divided in major wind categories, to study the circulation variability at meso to seasonal scales, and in terms of the local wind forcing. In general, the new results revealed by the drifter data confirm the general characteristics of the surface circulation as detected in previous Eulerian investigations. However, they provide a new broad quantitative description of the central Mediterranean surface circulation and they shed light on the dynamics of the Channel at large, including the Tunisian shelf and the area south of Malta, which shows unexpected characteristics of the surface velocity field, sometimes stagnant or even directed the opposite way with respect to the currents flowing further to the north. In addition, the drifter dataset allows to underline the seasonal character of the surface circulation in the area, and to assess the importance of the wind forcing. It was found that when winds blow from the northwestern sector (like the Mistral) the surface eastward transport in the Sicily Channel is enhanced. In contrast, for opposing wind conditions (blowing from the southeastern sector), the transport trough the Channel is significantly reduced. The quasi-Lagrangian nature of the drifters is also exploited to estimate Lagrangian statistics, such as the auto-covariance, the horizontal diffusivity and the integral time and space scales. Diffusivities and scales ranging in 1–5×107 cm2 s−1, 1–2 days and 10–30 km were found, respectively.

Enrico Zambianchi

Papers

Western Ross Sea continental slope gravity currents

Global warming and mass mortalities of benthic invertebrates in the Mediterranean Sea.

Energetic plumes over the western Ross Sea continental slope

Transport Properties in the Adriatic Sea as Deduced from Drifter Data

Surface circulation in the central Mediterranean Sea as deduced from Lagrangian drifters in the 1990s