Summary 1. Gridded climatologies have become an indispensable component of bioclimatic modelling, with a range of applications spanning conservation and pest management. Such globally conformal data sets of historical and future scenario climate surfaces are required to model species potential ranges under current and future climate scenarios. 2. We developed a set of interpolated climate surfaces at 10¢ and 30¢ resolution for global land areas excluding Antarctica. Input data for the baseline climatology were gathered from the WorldClim and CRU CL1AE0 and CL2AE0 data sets. A set of future climate scenarios were generated at 10¢ resolution. For each of the historical and future scenario data sets, the full set of 35 Bioclim variables was generated. Climate variables (including relative humidity at 0900 and 1500 hours) were also gener

https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00134.x

CliMond: global high‐resolution historical and future scenario climate surfaces for bioclimatic modelling

Assessing whether the climatic niche of a species may change between different geographic areas or time periods has become increasingly important in the context of ongoing global change. However, approaches and findings have remained largely controversial so far, calling for a unification of methods. Here, we build on a review of empirical studies of invasion to formalize a unifying framework that decomposes niche change into unfilling, stability, and expansion situations, taking both a pooled range and range-specific perspective on the niche, while accounting for climatic availability and climatic analogy. This framework provides new insights into the nature of climate niche shifts and our ability to anticipate invasions, and may help in guiding the design of experiments for assessing causes of niche changes.

/pdf/unifying-niche-shift-studies-insights-from-biological-13a6bhrl5j.pdf

Unifying niche shift studies: insights from biological invasions.

There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases. This overview addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies ontheimpactsofclimatechangeonplant health.Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Cali- fornian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronic- ity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and pre- dicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Predic- tion and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertain- ty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to in- terdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in moun- tain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (includ- ing our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycor- rhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods.

/pdf/impacts-of-climate-change-on-plant-diseases-opinions-and-4r1e54tb2f.pdf

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends

Modelling the impacts of pests and diseases on agricultural systems

Aim Investigate the relative abilities of different bioclimatic models and data sets to project species ranges in novel environments utilizing the natural experiment in biogeography provided by Australian Acacia species.



Location  Australia, South Africa.



Methods  We built bioclimatic models for Acacia cyclops and Acacia pycnantha using two discriminatory correlative models (MaxEnt and Boosted Regression Trees) and a mechanistic niche model (CLIMEX). We fitted models using two training data sets: native-range data only (‘restricted’) and all available global data excluding South Africa (‘full’). We compared the ability of these techniques to project suitable climate for independent records of the species in South Africa. In addition, we assessed the global potential distributions of the species to projected climate change.



Results  All model projections assessed against their training data, the South African data and globally were statistically significant. In South Africa and globally, the additional information contained in the full data set generally improved model sensitivity, but at the expense of increased modelled prevalence, particularly in extrapolation areas for the correlative models. All models projected some climatically suitable areas in South Africa not currently occupied by the species. At the global scale, widespread and biologically unrealistic projections by the correlative models were explained by open-ended response curves, a problem which was not always addressed by broader background climate space or by the extra information in the full data set. In contrast, the global projections for CLIMEX were more conservative. Projections into 2070 indicated a polewards shift in climate suitability and a decrease in model interpolation area.



Main conclusions  Our results highlight the importance of carefully interpreting model projections in novel climates, particularly for correlative models. Much work is required to ensure bioclimatic models performed in a robust and ecologically plausible manner in novel climates. We explore reasons for variations between models and suggest methods and techniques for future improvements.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00811.x

Modelling horses for novel climate courses: insights from projecting potential distributions of native and alien Australian acacias with correlative and mechanistic models

Pest risk maps are powerful visual communication tools to describe where invasive alien species might arrive, establish, spread, or cause harmful impacts. These maps inform strategic and tactical pest management decisions, such as potential restrictions on international trade or the design of pest surveys and domestic quarantines. Diverse methods are available to create pest risk maps, and can potentially yield different depictions of risk for the same species. Inherent uncertainties about the biology of the invader, future climate conditions, and species interactions further complicate map interpretation. If multiple maps are available, risk managers must choose how to incorporate the various representations of risk into their decisionmaking process, and may make significant errors if they misunderstand what each map portrays. This article describes the need for pest risk maps, compares pest risk mapping methods, and recommends future research to improve such important decision-support tools.

/pdf/pest-risk-maps-for-invasive-alien-species-a-roadmap-for-1sk85xmegh.pdf

Pest Risk Maps for Invasive Alien Species: A Roadmap for Improvement

Knowledge associated with biological disciplines, particularly Entomology (including Acarology), Plant Pathology (including Bacteriology, Mycology, Nematology, and Virology), Malacology, and Weed Science, is critical to understand and study pests of agriculture and natural resources. These disciplines are also “core” to plant biosecurity. A thorough understanding of these disciplines will help biosecurity officials plan and design plant biosecurity programmes to manage and mitigate the risk posed by pests as well as cope with the substantial uncertainty typically associated with plant biosecurity undertakings and issues. This chapter provides some of the necessary background that a biosecurity official might need, but also provides background required by employees responsible for plant biosecurity operations in developed and developing countries. The information presented may also serve as a catalyst for undergraduate or graduate students with an interest in plant biosecurity to pursue further study in one or more of these disciplines. Additionally, biological knowledge about invading species can help scientists with expertise in both core and related disciplines to see the relevance of their research in the plant biosecurity area. Plant biosecurity also benefits from diverse disciplines such as geography, sociology, economics, and climatology. Researchers within these fields, who are called on to research or assist the development of an improved regulatory environment, can also benefit from some knowledge of the core biological disciplines. We highlight concepts that are common to each of the core disciplines and explain how a thorough understanding of them can assure and improve the plant biosecurity of a nation.

Erhard J. Dobesberger

Papers

Pest Risk Maps for Invasive Alien Species: A Roadmap for Improvement

The Importance of Core Biological Disciplines in Plant Biosecurity