Confirmation bias, as the term is typically used in the psychological literature, connotes the seeking or interpreting of evidence in ways that are partial to existing beliefs, expectations, or a h...

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Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises:

In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

Theoretical models of financial markets built on the assumption that some investors are overconfident yield one central prediction: overconfident investors will trade too much. We test this prediction by partitioning investors on the basis of a variable that provides a natural proxy for overconfidence--gender. Psychological research has established that men are more prone to overconfidence than women. Thus, models of investor overconfidence predict that men will trade more and perform worse than women. Using account data for over 35,000 households from a large discount brokerage firm, we analyze the common stock investments of men and women from February 1991 through January 1997. Consistent with the predictions of the overconfidence models, we document that men trade 45 percent more than women and earn annual risk-adjusted net returns that are 1.4 percent less than those earned by women. These differences are more pronounced between single men and single women; single men trade 67 percent more than single women and earn annual risk-adjusted net returns that are 2.3 percent less than those earned by single women.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/98110615.pdf?abstractid=139415&rulid=175370&mirid=3

Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment

Theoretical models predict that overconedent investors trade excessively We test this prediction by partitioning investors on gender Psychological research demonstrates that, in areas such as enance, men are more overconedent than women Thus, theory predicts that men will trade more excessively than women Using account data for over 35,000 households from a large discount brokerage, we analyze the common stock investments of men and women from February 1991 through January 1997 We document that men trade 45 percent more than women Trading reduces men’s net returns by 265 percentage points a year as opposed to 172 percentage points for women It’s not what a man don’t know that makes him a fool, but what he does know that ain’t so Josh Billings, nineteenth century American humorist It is difecult to reconcile the volume of trading observed in equity markets with the trading needs of rational investors Rational investors make periodic contributions and withdrawals from their investment portfolios, rebalance their portfolios, and trade to minimize their taxes Those possessed of superior information may trade speculatively, although rational speculative traders will generally not choose to trade with each other It is unlikely that rational trading needs account for a turnover rate of

/pdf/boys-will-be-boys-gender-overconfidence-and-common-stock-2ctwfizezu.pdf

Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment

/pdf/research-design-qualitative-quantitative-and-mixed-methods-1m92m1x5gg.pdf

Research Design: Qualitative, Quantitative, and Mixed Methods Approaches

Purpose Despite the practice of dual leadership in many organizations, there is relatively little research on the topic. Dual leadership means two leaders share the leadership task and are held jointly accountable for the results of the unit. To better understand how dual leadership works, this study aims to analyse three different dual leadership pairs at a Danish hospital. Furthermore, this study develops a tool to characterize dual leadership teams from each other. Design/methodology/approach This is a qualitative study using semi-structured interviews. Six leaders were interviewed to clarify how dual leadership works in a hospital context. All interviews were transcribed and coded. During coding, focus was on the nine principles found in the literature and another principle was found by looking at the themes that were generic for all six interviews. Findings Results indicate that power balance, personal relations and decision processes are important factors for creating efficient dual leaderships. The study develops a categorizing tool to use for further research or for organizations, to describe and analyse dual leaderships. Originality/value The study describes dual leadership in the hospital context and develops a categorizing tool for being able to distinguish dual leadership teams from each other. It is important to reveal if there are any indicators that can be used for optimising dual leadership teams in the health-care sector and in other organisations.

Dual leadership in a hospital practice

To Learn or Not to Learn, that is the Question

The objective of this project is to develop and test a multi-method empirical approach for predicting drivers- assessments of the level of acceptability of a warning issued in response to accidents ...

https://pubs.lib.uiowa.edu/driving/article/28317/galley/136609/download/

Shouldn't Cars React as Drivers Expect?

Working Across Boundaries : Resilient Health Care, Volume 5

The events of 2007–2009 in the global financial markets clearly illustrated the need of an improved understanding of how the global Financial Services System (FSS) functions. In particular, the crisis made it clear that national FSSs, or components of such systems such as individual banks, were highly dependent on the normal functioning of other components of the global FSS. The primary goal of this chapter is to introduce a functional framework that enables a proactive identification of risk associated with outcomes of actions – either planned or already taken. Key concepts from Resilience Engineering and functional modelling are leveraged to define the approach. The primary goal of the proposed framework is to identify key functional dependencies between an individual firm’s business functions and the functions that drive key behaviours of global financial markets. The rapid demise of the UK-based residential mortgage firm Northern Rock is used to illustrate the proposed framework.

Erik Hollnagel

Papers

Dual leadership in a hospital practice

To Learn or Not to Learn, that is the Question

Shouldn't Cars React as Drivers Expect?

Working Across Boundaries : Resilient Health Care, Volume 5

The Importance of Functional Interdependencies in Financial Services Systems