Confirmation bias, as the term is typically used in the psychological literature, connotes the seeking or interpreting of evidence in ways that are partial to existing beliefs, expectations, or a h...

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Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises:

In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

Theoretical models of financial markets built on the assumption that some investors are overconfident yield one central prediction: overconfident investors will trade too much. We test this prediction by partitioning investors on the basis of a variable that provides a natural proxy for overconfidence--gender. Psychological research has established that men are more prone to overconfidence than women. Thus, models of investor overconfidence predict that men will trade more and perform worse than women. Using account data for over 35,000 households from a large discount brokerage firm, we analyze the common stock investments of men and women from February 1991 through January 1997. Consistent with the predictions of the overconfidence models, we document that men trade 45 percent more than women and earn annual risk-adjusted net returns that are 1.4 percent less than those earned by women. These differences are more pronounced between single men and single women; single men trade 67 percent more than single women and earn annual risk-adjusted net returns that are 2.3 percent less than those earned by single women.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/98110615.pdf?abstractid=139415&rulid=175370&mirid=3

Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment

Theoretical models predict that overconedent investors trade excessively We test this prediction by partitioning investors on gender Psychological research demonstrates that, in areas such as enance, men are more overconedent than women Thus, theory predicts that men will trade more excessively than women Using account data for over 35,000 households from a large discount brokerage, we analyze the common stock investments of men and women from February 1991 through January 1997 We document that men trade 45 percent more than women Trading reduces men’s net returns by 265 percentage points a year as opposed to 172 percentage points for women It’s not what a man don’t know that makes him a fool, but what he does know that ain’t so Josh Billings, nineteenth century American humorist It is difecult to reconcile the volume of trading observed in equity markets with the trading needs of rational investors Rational investors make periodic contributions and withdrawals from their investment portfolios, rebalance their portfolios, and trade to minimize their taxes Those possessed of superior information may trade speculatively, although rational speculative traders will generally not choose to trade with each other It is unlikely that rational trading needs account for a turnover rate of

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Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment

/pdf/research-design-qualitative-quantitative-and-mixed-methods-1m92m1x5gg.pdf

Research Design: Qualitative, Quantitative, and Mixed Methods Approaches

This book provides the first comprehensive description of resilient health care, henceforth referred to as RHC. Since there are probably only a few who, at the time of publication, have a clear idea about what this means, some words of introduction are appropriate. The simple explanation is that RHC is the application of the concepts and methods of resilience engineering to the field of health care, and in particular to the problems of patient safety. A more detailed explanation and exemplification are provided in the chapters that follow. The motivation for RHC is threefold, as explained in this preface. The first is the sorry state of affairs in health care. The second is that attempts to improve this so far have had limited success. The third is the potential offered by resilience engineering as an alternative approach to safety and safety management.

Preface: On the need for resilience in health care

What is cognitive engineering? As a start, engineering is defined as the application of scientific principles to the design, building, and use of machines, constructions, etc. In simpler terms, engineering is the use of a systematic approach, based on scientific knowledge, to the design, building, and use of artefacts, with equal emphasis on design, building and use. Given this definition, then what is the meaning of the adjective ‘cognitive’?

Commentary Comments on 'Conception of the cognitive engineering design problem' by John Dowell and John Long

Objective To examine the association between compliance with accreditation and recommended hospital care. Design A Danish nationwide population-based follow-up study based on data from six national, clinical quality registries between November 2009 and December 2012. Setting Public, non-psychiatric Danish hospitals. Participants Patients with acute stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, heart failure, hip fracture and bleeding/perforated ulcers. Interventions All hospitals were accredited by the first version of The Danish Healthcare Quality Programme. Compliance with accreditation was defined by level of accreditation awarded the hospital after an announced onsite survey; hence, hospitals were either fully (n = 11) or partially accredited (n = 20). Main Outcome Measures Recommended hospital care included 48 process performance measures reflecting recommendations from clinical guidelines. We assessed recommended hospital care as fulfilment of the measures individually and as an all-or-none composite score. Results In total 449 248 processes of care were included corresponding to 68 780 patient pathways. Patients at fully accredited hospitals had a significantly higher probability of receiving care according to clinical guideline recommendations than patients at partially accredited hospitals across conditions (individual measure: adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.01-1.43, all-or-none: adjusted OR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.02-1.58). For five of the six included conditions there were an association; the pattern appeared particular strong among patients with acute stroke and hip fracture (all-or-none; acute stroke: adjusted OR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.05-1.83, hip fracture: adjusted OR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.00-2.49). Conclusion High compliance with accreditation standards was associated with a higher level of evidence-based hospital care in Danish hospitals.

Compliance with accreditation and recommended hospital care—a Danish nationwide population-based study

Contents: Prologue The turmoil in the financial services system, Gunilla SundstrA m and Erik Hollnagel Section I Understanding Why: the Need for New Perspectives: Gunilla SundstrA m and Erik Hollnagel What is the financial services system?, Gunilla SundstrA m and Erik Hollnagel A dynamic systems modelling perspective, Gunilla SundstrA m and Erik Hollnagel From the efficient market hypothesis to econophysics, Bill McKelvey and Rossitsa Yalamova. Section II Understanding What: Making Sense of Unpredictable Events and Developments: Erik Hollnagel and Gunilla SundstrA m The 2007 liquidity crisis: an example of scalability dynamics in action, Bill McKelvey and Rossitsa Yalamova Taming manias: on the origins, inevitability, prediction and regulation of bubbles and crashes, Jeff Satinover and Didier Sornette Using power laws and the Hurst exponent to identify stock market trading bubbles, Rossitsa Yalamova and Bill McKelvey. Section III Understanding How: Turning Financial Services Systems into Resilient Systems: Erik Hollnagel and Gunilla SundstrA m Balancing different modes of uncertainty management in the financial services industry, Gudela Grote Financial resilience engineering: toward automatic action formulas against risk and reckless endangerment, Bill McKelvey and Rossitsa Yalamova The ability to regulate, govern and control financial systems, Gunilla SundstrA m and Erik Hollnagel Epilogue: financial markets and the law of requisite variety, Erik Hollnagel and Gunilla SundstrA m References Indexes.

Governance and control of financial systems : a resilience engineering perspective

This chapter begins with the description of CREAM and its principal layouts. It also emphasizes the main distinction made by the first-generation HRA approaches between correct and faulty actions, or between success and failure. The dichotomy is at the root of all of the approaches and is inseparable from the notion of the binary representation used in the PSA event trees. The main aim of the chapter is to feature the method that is fully bidirectional (meaning that the same principles can be applied for retrospective analysis, the search for causes, and performance prediction). This model is based on a fundamental distinction between competence and control that offers a way of describing how performance depends on context. Finally, the chapter concludes that a classification scheme clearly separates causes (genotypes) and manifestations (phenotypes) and proposes a non-hierarchical organization of groups of genotypes. The method principles, model fundamentals, model of cognition, and the links between classification groups are also discussed.

Erik Hollnagel

Papers

Preface: On the need for resilience in health care

Commentary Comments on 'Conception of the cognitive engineering design problem' by John Dowell and John Long

Compliance with accreditation and recommended hospital care—a Danish nationwide population-based study

Governance and control of financial systems : a resilience engineering perspective

CREAM — A Second Generation HRA Method