Confirmation bias, as the term is typically used in the psychological literature, connotes the seeking or interpreting of evidence in ways that are partial to existing beliefs, expectations, or a h...

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Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises:

In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

Theoretical models of financial markets built on the assumption that some investors are overconfident yield one central prediction: overconfident investors will trade too much. We test this prediction by partitioning investors on the basis of a variable that provides a natural proxy for overconfidence--gender. Psychological research has established that men are more prone to overconfidence than women. Thus, models of investor overconfidence predict that men will trade more and perform worse than women. Using account data for over 35,000 households from a large discount brokerage firm, we analyze the common stock investments of men and women from February 1991 through January 1997. Consistent with the predictions of the overconfidence models, we document that men trade 45 percent more than women and earn annual risk-adjusted net returns that are 1.4 percent less than those earned by women. These differences are more pronounced between single men and single women; single men trade 67 percent more than single women and earn annual risk-adjusted net returns that are 2.3 percent less than those earned by single women.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/98110615.pdf?abstractid=139415&rulid=175370&mirid=3

Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment

Theoretical models predict that overconedent investors trade excessively We test this prediction by partitioning investors on gender Psychological research demonstrates that, in areas such as enance, men are more overconedent than women Thus, theory predicts that men will trade more excessively than women Using account data for over 35,000 households from a large discount brokerage, we analyze the common stock investments of men and women from February 1991 through January 1997 We document that men trade 45 percent more than women Trading reduces men’s net returns by 265 percentage points a year as opposed to 172 percentage points for women It’s not what a man don’t know that makes him a fool, but what he does know that ain’t so Josh Billings, nineteenth century American humorist It is difecult to reconcile the volume of trading observed in equity markets with the trading needs of rational investors Rational investors make periodic contributions and withdrawals from their investment portfolios, rebalance their portfolios, and trade to minimize their taxes Those possessed of superior information may trade speculatively, although rational speculative traders will generally not choose to trade with each other It is unlikely that rational trading needs account for a turnover rate of

/pdf/boys-will-be-boys-gender-overconfidence-and-common-stock-2ctwfizezu.pdf

Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment

/pdf/research-design-qualitative-quantitative-and-mixed-methods-1m92m1x5gg.pdf

Research Design: Qualitative, Quantitative, and Mixed Methods Approaches

For Resilience Engineering, 'failure' is the result of the adaptations necessary to cope with the complexity of the real world, rather than a breakdown or malfunction. The performance of individuals and organizations must continually adjust to current conditions and, because resources and time are finite, such adjustments are always approximate. This definitive new book explores this groundbreaking new development in safety and risk management, where 'success' is based on the ability of organizations, groups and individuals to anticipate the changing shape of risk before failures and harm occur. Featuring contributions from many of the worlds leading figures in the fields of human factors and safety, "Resilience Engineering" provides provocative insights into system safety as an aggregate of its various components, subsystems, software, organizations, human behaviours, and the way in which they interact. The book provides an introduction to Resilience Engineering of systems, covering both the theoretical and practical aspects. It is written for those responsible for system safety on managerial or operational levels alike, including safety managers and engineers (line and maintenance), security experts, risk and safety consultants, human factors professionals and accident investigators.

Learning How to Create Resilience in Business Systems

Resilient Health Care, Volume 2: The Resilience of Everyday Clinical Work

Resilience Engineering Perspectives: Preparation and Restoration

Publisher Summary This chapter discusses some of the essential aspects of expert system evaluation. The basis was the increasing use of expert systems in real applications, hence, the growing need to evaluate their functionality as a natural extension to the software engineering aspects of the design and development process. The reliability of an evaluation method can be established using techniques commonly known in other fields, whereas the validity of the method required more thorough considerations of the content validity and the construct validity. It was pointed out that whereas the validity can be reasonably well assessed by looking only at the results or output from the expert system, assessing the reliability also requires that the mechanisms of the system are studied in some detail. This should be done not only for the cases where something goes wrong, that is, as a part of a diagnosis, but also for normal conditions. Following that a number of frequently used evaluation methods were discussed using the classification established above. The methods include Turing's test, expert assessment, and statistical sampling, as well as some more specialized approaches.

Evaluation of Expert Systems

This article presents research conducted within the Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) domain. VTS is a service that is provided close to ports and geographically challenging areas to support merchant vessels in their navigation. Although VTS is legally an advice and assistance service, applying concepts from Cognitive Systems Engineering and Resilience Engineering can highlight how the joint human-machine system works to promote safe and efficient traffic movements. The VTS is a Joint Cognitive System that maintains control through a mixture of opportunistic and tactical control. Strategic control is only partially supported by the higher levels of system aggregation that provide the basis for defining daily operations within the settings of the VTS. To increase the VTS system’s ability to anticipate, respond, monitor, and learn, and therefore the ability to be resilient, there is a need to promote more strategic and tactical control within daily operations.

Erik Hollnagel

Papers

Learning How to Create Resilience in Business Systems

Resilient Health Care, Volume 2: The Resilience of Everyday Clinical Work

Resilience Engineering Perspectives: Preparation and Restoration

Evaluation of Expert Systems

Control and Resilience Within the Maritime Traffic Management Domain