The second edition of this acclaimed graduate text provides a unified treatment of two methods used in contemporary econometric research, cross section and data panel methods. By focusing on assumptions that can be given behavioral content, the book maintains an appropriate level of rigor while emphasizing intuitive thinking. The analysis covers both linear and nonlinear models, including models with dynamics and/or individual heterogeneity. In addition to general estimation frameworks (particular methods of moments and maximum likelihood), specific linear and nonlinear methods are covered in detail, including probit and logit models and their multivariate, Tobit models, models for count data, censored and missing data schemes, causal (or treatment) effects, and duration analysis. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data was the first graduate econometrics text to focus on microeconomic data structures, allowing assumptions to be separated into population and sampling assumptions. This second edition has been substantially updated and revised. Improvements include a broader class of models for missing data problems; more detailed treatment of cluster problems, an important topic for empirical researchers; expanded discussion of "generalized instrumental variables" (GIV) estimation; new coverage (based on the author's own recent research) of inverse probability weighting; a more complete framework for estimating treatment effects with panel data, and a firmly established link between econometric approaches to nonlinear panel data and the "generalized estimating equation" literature popular in statistics and other fields. New attention is given to explaining when particular econometric methods can be applied; the goal is not only to tell readers what does work, but why certain "obvious" procedures do not. The numerous included exercises, both theoretical and computer-based, allow the reader to extend methods covered in the text and discover new insights.

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Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

NUDGE: IMPROVING DECISIONS ABOUT HEALTH, WEALTH, AND HAPPINESS by Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein Penguin Books, 2009, 312 pp, ISBN 978-0-14-311526-7This book is best described formally as a general explanation of and advocacy for libertarian paternalism, a term coined by the authors in earlier publications. Informally, it is about how leaders, systems, organizations, and governments can nudge people to do the things the nudgers want and need done for the betterment of the nudgees, or of society. It is paternalism in the sense that "it is legitimate for choice architects to try to influence people's behavior in order to make their lives longer, healthier, and better", (p. 5) It is libertarian in that "people should be free to do what they like - and to opt out of undesirable arrangements if they want to do so", (p. 5) The built-in possibility of opting out or making a different choice preserves freedom of choice even though people's behavior has been influenced by the nature of the presentation of the information or by the structure of the decisionmaking system. I had never heard of libertarian paternalism before reading this book, and I now find it fascinating.Written for a general audience, this book contains mostly social and behavioral science theory and models, but there is considerable discussion of structure and process that has roots in mathematical and quantitative modeling. One of the main applications of this social system is economic choice in investing, selecting and purchasing products and services, systems of taxes, banking (mortgages, borrowing, savings), and retirement systems. Other quantitative social choice systems discussed include environmental effects, health care plans, gambling, and organ donations. Softer issues that are also subject to a nudge-based approach are marriage, education, eating, drinking, smoking, influence, spread of information, and politics. There is something in this book for everyone.The basis for this libertarian paternalism concept is in the social theory called "science of choice", the study of the design and implementation of influence systems on various kinds of people. The terms Econs and Humans, are used to refer to people with either considerable or little rational decision-making talent, respectively. The various libertarian paternalism concepts and systems presented are tested and compared in light of these two types of people. Two foundational issues that this book has in common with another book, Network of Echoes: Imitation, Innovation and Invisible Leaders, that was also reviewed for this issue of the Journal are that 1 ) there are two modes of thinking (or components of the brain) - an automatic (intuitive) process and a reflective (rational) process and 2) the need for conformity and the desire for imitation are powerful forces in human behavior. …

Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness

The talk with present the key results of the IPCC Working Group III 5th assessment report. Concluding four years of intense scientific collaboration by hundreds of authors from around the world, the report responds to the request of the world's governments for a comprehensive, objective and policy neutral assessment of the current scientific knowledge on mitigating climate change. The report has been extensively reviewed by experts and governments to ensure quality and comprehensiveness.

Climate change 2014 - Mitigation of climate change

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The Theory of Industrial Organization

We present a method for decomposing wholesale electricity payments into production costs, inframarginal competitive rents, and payments resulting from the exercise of market power. The method also parses actual variable costs into the minimum variable costs necessary to meet demand and increased production costs caused by market power and other market inefficiencies. Using data from June 1998 to October 2000 in California, we find significant departures from competitive pricing, particularly during the high-demand summer months. Electricity expenditures in the state's restructured wholesale market rose from $2.04 billion in summer 1999 to $8.98 billion in summer 2000. We find that 21% of this increase was due to increased production costs, 20% was due to increased competitive rents, and the remaining 59% was attributable to increased market power.

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Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market

A major concern in the design of wholesale electricity markets is the potential for the exercise of market power by generating unit owners. To better understand the determinants of generating unit owner market power and how it is exercised, this paper derives a model of bidding behavior in a competitive electricity market which incorporates various sources of uncertainty and the impact of the electricity generator's position in the financial hedge contract market on its expected profit-maximizing bidding behavior. The model is first used to characterize the profit-maximizing market price that a generator would like set by its bidding strategy for several hedge contract and spot sales combinations. This model is applied to bid and contract data obtained from the first three months of operation of the National Electricity Market (NEM1) in Australia. This analysis illustrates the sensitivity of expected profit-maximizing bidding strategies to the amount of financial hedge contracts held by the generating uni...

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Hedge Contracts on Bidding Behavior in a Competitive Electricity Market

This chapter explains the logic of structural econometric models and compares them to other types of econometric models. We provide a framework researchers can use to develop and evaluate structural econometric models. This framework pays particular attention to describing different sources of unobservables in structural models. We use our framework to evaluate several literatures in industrial organization economics, including the literatures dealing with market power, product differentiation, auctions, regulation and entry.

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Structural Econometric Modeling: Rationales and Examples from Industrial Organization

http://web.stanford.edu/group/fwolak/cgi-bin/sites/default/files/files/Testing%20Inequality%20Constraints%20in%20Linear%20Econometric%20Models_Wolak.pdf

Testing inequality constraints in linear econometric models

This paper measures the unilateral incentive each of the five largest electricity suppliers in the California had to exercise market power in the state's wholesale market during the five month period June 1 to September 30 of 1998, 1999 and 2000. Using the actual bids submitted to the California Independent System Operator's (CAISO) real-time energy market, I compute the hourly price elasticity of the ex post residual demand curve faced by each supplier evaluated at the market-clearing price for that hour. The inverse of this hourly ex post residual demand elasticity quantifies the extent to which that supplier is able to raise the hourly real-time energy price above its marginal cost of supplying the last megawatt-hour (MWh) it sells in the CAISO's real-time energy market. I use the average hourly value of the inverse of the firm-level residual demand elasticity over the four month sample period of each year as a summary measure of the extent of unilateral market power possessed by each supplier. For each firm, this measure of unilateral market power is significantly higher in 2000 relative to the corresponding firm-level values in 1998 and 1999. For each of the five firms, this measure is slightly higher in 1998 than 1999. The firm-level results presented below are consistent with the view that the enormous increase in the amount market power exercised in the California market beginning in June of 2000 documented in Borenstein, Bushnell and Wolak (2002) was due to a substantial increase in the amount of unilateral market power possessed each of the five large suppliers in California.

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Frank A. Wolak

Papers

Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Hedge Contracts on Bidding Behavior in a Competitive Electricity Market

Structural Econometric Modeling: Rationales and Examples from Industrial Organization

Testing inequality constraints in linear econometric models

Measuring Unilateral Market Power in Wholesale Electricity Markets: The California Market, 1998-2000