Funding: This work was supported by supported by Health Data Research UK (HDR-UK; grant number CFC0110) which receives its funding from the UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation, and the Wellcome Trust. .

https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa57182/Download/57182__20375__03769d531fd84ff5bbc883f58c6ab72c.pdf

Examining variation in the measurement of multimorbidity in research: a systematic review of 566 studies.

Background Beliefs about the body and pain play a powerful role in behavioural and emotional responses to musculoskeletal pain. What a person believes and how they respond to their musculoskeletal pain can influence how disabled they will be by pain. Importantly, beliefs are modifiable and are therefore considered an important target for the treatment of pain-related disability. Clinical guidelines recommend addressing unhelpful beliefs as the first line of treatment in all patients presenting with musculoskeletal pain. However, many clinicians hold unhelpful beliefs themselves; while others feel ill-equipped to explore and target the beliefs driving unhelpful responses to pain. As a result, clinicians may reinforce unhelpful beliefs, behaviours and resultant disability among the patients they treat. Methods To assist clinicians, in Part 1 of this paper we discuss what beliefs are; how they are formed; the impact they can have on a person's behaviour, emotional responses and outcomes of musculoskeletal pain. In Part 2, we discuss how we can address beliefs in clinical practice. A clinical case is used to illustrate the critical role that beliefs can have on a person's journey from pain and disability to recovery. Conclusions We encourage clinicians to exercise self-reflection to explore their own beliefs and better understand their biases, which may influence their management of patients with musculoskeletal pain. We suggest actions that may benefit their practice, and we propose key principles to guide a process of behavioural change.

Beliefs about the body and pain: the critical role in musculoskeletal pain management.

Background Managing multimorbidity is complex for both patients and healthcare systems. Patients with multimorbidity often use a variety of primary and secondary care services. Country-specific research exploring the healthcare utilisation and cost consequences of multimorbidity may inform future interventions and payment schemes in the UK. Aim To assess the relationship between multimorbidity, healthcare costs, and healthcare utilisation; and to determine how this relationship varies by disease combinations and healthcare components. Design and setting A systematic review. Method This systematic review followed the bidirectional citation searching to completion method. MEDLINE and grey literature were searched for UK studies since 2004. An iterative review of references and citations was completed. Authors from all articles selected were contacted and asked to check for completeness of UK evidence. The National Institutes of Health National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute quality assessment tool was used to assess risk of bias. Data were extracted, findings synthesised, and study heterogeneity assessed; meta-analysis was conducted when possible. Results Seventeen studies were identified: seven predicting healthcare costs and 10 healthcare utilisation. Multimorbidity was found to be associated with increased total costs, hospital costs, care transition costs, primary care use, dental care use, emergency department use, and hospitalisations. Several studies demonstrated the high cost of depression and of hospitalisation associated with multimorbidity. Conclusion In the UK, multimorbidity increases healthcare utilisation and costs of primary, secondary, and dental care. Future research is needed to examine whether integrated care schemes offer efficiencies in healthcare provision for multimorbidity.

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Impact of multimorbidity on healthcare costs and utilisation: a systematic review of the UK literature

Objectives Examination of the prevalence and patterns of multimorbidity among the elderly in China. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting More than 10 000 households in 28 of the 34 provinces of mainland China. Participants 11 707 Chinese adults aged 60 and over. Primary outcome measures Prevalence and patterns of multimorbidity among the participants. Relative risks were calculated to estimate the probability of up to 14 chronic conditions coexisting with each other. Observed-to-expected (O/E) ratios were used to analyse the patterns of multimorbidity. Results Multimorbidity was present in 43.6% of respondents from the sample population, with women having the greater prevalence compared with men. There were 804 different comorbidity combinations identified, including 76 dyad combinations and 169 triad combinations. The top 10 morbidity dyads and triads accounted for 69.01% and 47.05% of the total dyad and triad combinations observed, respectively. Among the 14 chronic conditions included in the study, asthma, stroke, heart attack and six other chronic conditions were the main components of multimorbidity due to their high relative risk ratios. The most frequently occurring clusters with higher O/E ratios were stroke along with emotional, nervous, or psychiatric problems; memory-related diseases together emotional, nervous, or psychiatric problems; and memory-related diseases and asthma accompanied by chronic lung diseases and asthma. Conclusions The results of this study highlight the high prevalence of multimorbidity in the elderly population in China. Further studies are required to understand the aetiology of multimorbidity, and future primary healthcare policies should be made while taking multimorbidity into consideration.

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/9/8/e024268.full.pdf

Prevalence and patterns of multimorbidity among the elderly in China: a cross-sectional study using national survey data.

Multimorbidity, the simultaneous presence of multiple chronic conditions, is an increasing global health problem and research into its determinants is of high priority. We used baseline untargeted plasma metabolomics profiling covering >1,000 metabolites as a comprehensive readout of human physiology to characterize pathways associated with and across 27 incident noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) assessed using electronic health record hospitalization and cancer registry data from over 11,000 participants (219,415 person years). We identified 420 metabolites shared between at least 2 NCDs, representing 65.5% of all 640 significant metabolite-disease associations. We integrated baseline data on over 50 diverse clinical risk factors and characteristics to identify actionable shared pathways represented by those metabolites. Our study highlights liver and kidney function, lipid and glucose metabolism, low-grade inflammation, surrogates of gut microbial diversity and specific health-related behaviors as antecedents of common NCD multimorbidity with potential for early prevention. We integrated results into an open-access webserver ( https://omicscience.org/apps/mwasdisease/ ) to facilitate future research and meta-analyses.

Plasma metabolites to profile pathways in noncommunicable disease multimorbidity.

Tuberculosis is a leading cause of infectious disease–related death worldwide; however, only 10% of people infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis develop disease. Factors that contribute to protection could prove to be promising targets for M. tuberculosis therapies. Analysis of peripheral blood gene expression profiles of active tuberculosis patients has identified correlates of risk for disease or pathogenesis. We sought to identify potential human candidate markers of host defense by studying gene expression profiles of macrophages, cells that, upon infection by M. tuberculosis, can mount an antimicrobial response. Weighted gene coexpression network analysis revealed an association between the cytokine interleukin-32 (IL-32) and the vitamin D antimicrobial pathway in a network of interferon-γ– and IL-15–induced “defense response” genes. IL-32 induced the vitamin D–dependent antimicrobial peptides cathelicidin and DEFB4 and to generate antimicrobial activity in vitro, dependent on the presence of adequate 25-hydroxyvitamin D. In addition, the IL-15–induced defense response macrophage gene network was integrated with ranked pairwise comparisons of gene expression from five different clinical data sets of latent compared with active tuberculosis or healthy controls and a coexpression network derived from gene expression in patients with tuberculosis undergoing chemotherapy. Together, these analyses identified eight common genes, including IL-32, as molecular markers of latent tuberculosis and the IL-15–induced gene network. As maintaining M. tuberculosis in a latent state and preventing transition to active disease may represent a form of host resistance, these results identify IL-32 as one functional marker and potential correlate of protection against active tuberculosis.

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/368/bmj.l6964.full.pdf

Rising to the challenge of multimorbidity

Comprehensive response is needed, across healthcare and beyond

/pdf/restoring-and-extending-secondary-prevention-1e9ujko7.pdf

Restoring and extending secondary prevention

Leadership and public health

I read with interest McCartney’s article in The BMJ , “When donation isn’t a donation.”1

The change to a deemed consent model of organ donation in Wales was established after extensive public consultation. Consent/authorisation rates of UK organ donation had remained broadly static …

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/357/bmj.j1681.full.pdf

Frank Atherton

Papers

Rising to the challenge of multimorbidity

Restoring and extending secondary prevention

Leadership and public health

Changes to donation in Wales give cause for optimism