This review compared the accuracy of various approaches to the prediction of recidivism among sexual offenders. On the basis of a meta-analysis of 536 findings drawn from 118 distinct samples (45,398 sexual offenders, 16 countries), empirically derived actuarial measures were more accurate than unstructured professional judgment for all outcomes (sexual, violent, or any recidivism). The accuracy of structured professional judgment was intermediate between the accuracy found for the actuarial measures and for unstructured professional judgment. The effect sizes for the actuarial measures were moderate to large by conventional standards (average d values of 0.67-0.97); however, the utility of the actuarial measures will vary according to the referral question and samples assessed. Further research should identify the psychologically meaningfully factors that contribute to risk for reoffending. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved).

http://static99.org/pdfdocs/hansonandm-b2009riskassessment.pdf

The accuracy of recidivism risk assessments for sexual offenders: a meta-analysis of 118 prediction studies.

Context Psychopaths belong to a larger group of persons with antisocial personality disorder and are characterized by an inability to have emotional involvement and by the repeated violation of the rights of others. It was hypothesized that this behavior might be the consequence of deficient fear conditioning. Objective To study the cerebral, peripheral, and subjective correlates of fear conditioning in criminal psychopaths and healthy control subjects. Design An aversive differential pavlovian delay conditioning paradigm with slides of neutral faces serving as conditioned and painful pressure as unconditioned stimuli. Setting The Department of Medical Psychology at the University of Tubingen, Tubingen, Germany. Participants Ten male psychopaths as defined by the Hare Psychopathy Checklist–Revised and 10 age- and education-matched healthy male controls. The psychopaths were criminal offenders on bail and waiting for their trial or were on parole. The healthy controls were recruited from the community. Main Outcome Measures Brain activation based on functional magnetic resonance imaging, electrodermal responses, emotional valence, arousal, and contingency ratings. Results The healthy controls showed enhanced differential activation in the limbic-prefrontal circuit (amygdala, orbitofrontal cortex, insula, and anterior cingulate) during the acquisition of fear and successful verbal and autonomic conditioning. The psychopaths displayed no significant activity in this circuit and failed to show conditioned skin conductance and emotional valence ratings, although contingency and arousal ratings were normal. Conclusion This dissociation of emotional and cognitive processing may be the neural basis of the lack of anticipation of aversive events in criminal psychopaths.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/articlepdf/208744/yoa40213.pdf

Deficient Fear Conditioning in Psychopathy A Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Study

Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk, 2nd ed.

Using 88 studies from 1980 to 2006, a meta-analysis compares risk instruments and other psychological measures on their ability to predict general (primarily nonsexual) violence in adults. Little variation was found amongst the mean effect sizes of common actuarial or structured risk instruments (i.e., Historical, Clinical, and Risk Management Violence Risk Assessment Scheme; Level of Supervision Inventory‐Revised; Violence Risk Assessment Guide; Statistical Information on Recidivism scale; and Psychopathy Checklist‐Revised). Third-generation instruments, dynamic risk factors, and file review plus interview methods had the advantage in predicting violent recidivism. Second-generation instruments, static risk factors, and use of file review were the strongest predictors of institutional violence. Measures derived from criminological-related theories or research produced larger effect sizes than did those of less content relevance. Additional research on existing risk instruments is required to provide more precise point estimates, especially regarding the outcome of institutional violence.

THE PREDICTION OF VIOLENCE IN ADULT OFFENDERS A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Instruments and Methods of Assessment

Youth in secure juvenile justice settings (eg, detention, incarceration) often have histories of complex trauma: exposure to traumatic stressors including polyvictimization, life-threatening acci

/pdf/complex-trauma-and-aggression-in-secure-juvenile-justice-358wct0kbp.pdf

Complex Trauma and Aggression in Secure Juvenile Justice Settings

There is an ongoing debate on whether consumers of child pornography pose a risk for hands-on sex offenses. Up until now, there have been very few studies which have analyzed the association between the consumption of child pornography and the subsequent perpetration of hands-on sex offenses. The aim of this study was to examine the recidivism rates for hands-on and hands-off sex offenses in a sample of child pornography users using a 6 year follow-up design. The current study population consisted of 231 men, who were subsequently charged with consumption of illegal pornographic material after being detected by a special operation against Internet child pornography, conducted by the Swiss police in 2002. Criminal history, as well as recidivism, was assessed using the criminal records from 2008. 4.8% (n = 11) of the study sample had a prior conviction for a sexual and/or violent offense, 1% (n = 2) for a hands-on sex offense, involving child sexual abuse, 3.3% (n = 8) for a hands-off sex offense and one for a nonsexual violent offense. When applying a broad definition of recidivism, which included ongoing investigations, charges and convictions, 3% (n = 7) of the study sample recidivated with a violent and/or sex offense, 3.9% (n = 9) with a hands-off sex offense and 0.8% (n = 2) with a hands-on sex offense. Consuming child pornography alone is not a risk factor for committing hands-on sex offenses – at least not for those subjects who had never committed a hands-on sex offense. The majority of the investigated consumers had no previous convictions for hands-on sex offenses. For those offenders, the prognosis for hands-on sex offenses, as well as for recidivism with child pornography, is favorable.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/1471-244X-9-43.pdf

The consumption of Internet child pornography and violent and sex offending.

Background
In past years, the female offender population has grown, leading to an increased interest in the characteristics of female offenders. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of female violent offending in a Swiss offender population and to compare possible socio-demographic and offense-related gender differences.

/pdf/women-convicted-for-violent-offenses-adverse-childhood-4t1lrb1dht.pdf

Women convicted for violent offenses: Adverse childhood experiences, low level of education and poor mental health

Instruments based on actuarial forensic risk assessment models are sensitive to the calibration sample, and the inclusion criteria for the subjects of a study population will influence the features of the resulting model. If the same instrument is used in populations that are not part of the calibration sample, the discriminative validity of the instrument is jeopardized; thus the definition of the calibration sample is very important. The aim of this study was to examine how sensitive prognostic models are to the calibration sample. Two samples (N = 773) of offenders sentenced to at least 10 months in prison for a violent or sexual offense were used in this study. The “sanction sample” (recruited during August 2000, N = 515) consisted of all violent and sexual offenders actively administrated by the Criminal Justice System of Zurich, Switzerland. The “verdict sample” (recruited over two years, N = 258) included all offenders convicted in the Canton of Zurich during a two-year period. Both samples were unbiased, since all subjects that met the study criteria were included. In the first analysis, differences between the two samples were shown with respect to socio-demographic, criminological, and psychiatric variables using bivariate logistic regressions. In the second analysis, recidivism was estimated separately for both samples, using a logistic regression model as a function of a set of psychiatric, socio-demographic and criminological variables. Bivariate logistic regression showed that different risk factors for recidivism existed for both samples. Forensic risk assessment models are very sensitive to the calibration sample. There is strong evidence that, even when index-offenses and the socio-cultural background are the same, risk factors for recidivism differ depending on the stage of the judicial process in which the subjects are (e.g. whether a subject is indicted, on conditional release, on parole, or no longer under the supervision of a parole board). Unfortunately, none of the currently available actuarial risk assessment instruments that have been validated in European countries consider the different stages of the judiciary process.

The prediction of criminal recidivism : The implication of sampling in prognostic models

An actuarial risk assessment instrument can be considered valid if independent investigations using novel samples can replicate the findings of the instrument's development study. In order for a study to qualify as a replication, it has to adhere to the methodological protocol of the development study with respect to key design characteristics, as well as ensuring that manual-recommended guidelines of test administration have been followed.



A systematic search was conducted to identify predictive validity studies (N = 84) on three commonly used actuarial instruments: the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG), and the Static-99. Sample (sex, age, criminal history) and design (follow-up, attrition, recidivism) characteristics, as well as markers of assessment integrity (scoring reliability, item omissions, prorating procedure), were extracted from 84 studies comprising 108 samples.



None of the replications matched the development study of the instrument they were attempting to cross-validate with respect to key sample and design characteristics. Furthermore none of the replications strictly followed the manual-recommended guidelines for the instruments’ administration.



Additional replication studies that follow the methodological protocols outlined in actuarial instruments’ development studies are needed before claims of generalizability can be made. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Current obstacles in replicating risk assessment findings: a systematic review of commonly used actuarial instruments.

The Static-99 is a widely used actuarial risk assessment instrument Various international validation studies have found satisfactory to good predictive validity for the Static-99, with the area under the curve (AUC) between 59% and 95% This study is the first evaluation of the predictive accuracy of the Static-99 among sex offenders in Switzerland The Static-99 scores of 69 violent/sex offenders in Switzerland were assessed using data from their psychiatric assessments Recidivism was operationalized as reconviction assessed from penal records The Static-99 risk levels were predictive for recidivism (AUC = 758) among our population The results are discussed on the basis of the literature

/pdf/accuracy-of-the-static-99-in-predicting-recidivism-in-2t61fx460k.pdf

Frank Urbaniok

Papers

The consumption of Internet child pornography and violent and sex offending.

Women convicted for violent offenses: Adverse childhood experiences, low level of education and poor mental health

The prediction of criminal recidivism : The implication of sampling in prognostic models

Current obstacles in replicating risk assessment findings: a systematic review of commonly used actuarial instruments.

Accuracy of the static-99 in predicting recidivism in Switzerland.