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Cost Effectiveness in Health and Medicine.

Methods for the Economic Evaluation of Health Care Programmes

http://ris.utwente.nl/ws/files/6930582/1-s2.0-S1098301515051359-main.pdf

Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making—An Introduction: Report 1 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force

Summary Background Since the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak began in the Chinese city of Wuhan on Dec 31, 2019, 68 imported cases and 175 locally acquired infections have been reported in Singapore. We aimed to investigate options for early intervention in Singapore should local containment (eg, preventing disease spread through contact tracing efforts) be unsuccessful. Methods We adapted an influenza epidemic simulation model to estimate the likelihood of human-to-human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in a simulated Singaporean population. Using this model, we estimated the cumulative number of SARS-CoV-2 infections at 80 days, after detection of 100 cases of community transmission, under three infectivity scenarios (basic reproduction number [R0] of 1·5, 2·0, or 2·5) and assuming 7·5% of infections are asymptomatic. We first ran the model assuming no intervention was in place (baseline scenario), and then assessed the effect of four intervention scenarios compared with a baseline scenario on the size and progression of the outbreak for each R0 value. These scenarios included isolation measures for infected individuals and quarantining of family members (hereafter referred to as quarantine); quarantine plus school closure; quarantine plus workplace distancing; and quarantine, school closure, and workplace distancing (hereafter referred to as the combined intervention). We also did sensitivity analyses by altering the asymptomatic fraction of infections (22·7%, 30·0%, 40·0%, and 50·0%) to compare outbreak sizes under the same control measures. Findings For the baseline scenario, when R0 was 1·5, the median cumulative number of infections at day 80 was 279 000 (IQR 245 000–320 000), corresponding to 7·4% (IQR 6·5–8·5) of the resident population of Singapore. The median number of infections increased with higher infectivity: 727 000 cases (670 000–776 000) when R0 was 2·0, corresponding to 19·3% (17·8–20·6) of the Singaporean population, and 1 207 000 cases (1 164 000–1 249 000) when R0 was 2·5, corresponding to 32% (30·9–33·1) of the Singaporean population. Compared with the baseline scenario, the combined intervention was the most effective, reducing the estimated median number of infections by 99·3% (IQR 92·6–99·9) when R0 was 1·5, by 93·0% (81·5–99·7) when R0 was 2·0, and by 78·2% (59·0 −94·4) when R0 was 2·5. Assuming increasing asymptomatic fractions up to 50·0%, up to 277 000 infections were estimated to occur at day 80 with the combined intervention relative to 1800 for the baseline at R0 of 1·5. Interpretation Implementing the combined intervention of quarantining infected individuals and their family members, workplace distancing, and school closure once community transmission has been detected could substantially reduce the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. We therefore recommend immediate deployment of this strategy if local secondary transmission is confirmed within Singapore. However, quarantine and workplace distancing should be prioritised over school closure because at this early stage, symptomatic children have higher withdrawal rates from school than do symptomatic adults from work. At higher asymptomatic proportions, intervention effectiveness might be substantially reduced requiring the need for effective case management and treatments, and preventive measures such as vaccines. Funding Singapore Ministry of Health, Singapore Population Health Improvement Centre.

Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: a modelling study

Background The use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in health care has become common. However, the literature lacks systematic review trend analysis on the application of MCDA in health care. Aim To systematically identify applications of MCDA to the areas of health care, and to report on publication trends.

https://www.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/hex.12287

Application of multicriteria decision analysis in health care: a systematic review and bibliometric analysis.

Survival modeling techniques are increasingly being used as part of decision modeling for health economic evaluations. As many models are available, it is imperative for interested readers to know about the steps in selecting and using the most suitable ones. The objective of this paper is to propose a tutorial for the application of appropriate survival modeling techniques to estimate transition probabilities, for use in model-based economic evaluations, in the absence of individual patient data (IPD). An illustration of the use of the tutorial is provided based on the final progression-free survival (PFS) analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in metastatic breast cancer (mBC). An algorithm was adopted from Guyot and colleagues, and was then run in the statistical package R to reconstruct IPD, based on the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial. It should be emphasized that the reconstructed IPD represent an approximation of the original data. Afterwards, we fitted parametric models to the reconstructed IPD in the statistical package Stata. Both statistical and graphical tests were conducted to verify the relative and absolute validity of the findings. Finally, the equations for transition probabilities were derived using the general equation for transition probabilities used in model-based economic evaluations, and the parameters were estimated from fitted distributions. The results of the application of the tutorial suggest that the log-logistic model best fits the reconstructed data from the latest published Kaplan–Meier (KM) curves of the BOLERO-2 trial. Results from the regression analyses were confirmed graphically. An equation for transition probabilities was obtained for each arm of the BOLERO-2 trial. In this paper, a tutorial was proposed and used to estimate the transition probabilities for model-based economic evaluation, based on the results of the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in mBC. The results of our study can serve as a basis for any model (Markov) that needs the parameterization of transition probabilities, and only has summary KM plots available.

Survival Modeling for the Estimation of Transition Probabilities in Model-Based Economic Evaluations in the Absence of Individual Patient Data: A Tutorial

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) included multiple provisions expected to increase cancer screening and subsequently early diagnosis of cancer. Key provisions included new coverage options for low-income adults and young adults, as well as elimination of cost sharing for recommended preventive services across most health insurance plans. This article reviews relevant quantitative studies published since the ACA's passage to assess whether the goal of increasing access to preventive services has been met. Because of lags in data availability, most studies examined only a short period post-ACA. Findings on changes in screening in the general population were mixed, although impacts were greatest among those with lower education and income, as well as groups that previously faced the highest cost barriers to screening. Furthermore, multiple studies found evidence of increases in early-stage diagnoses for certain cancers. Thus, certain targeted populations appear to have better access to cancer screening after the ACA.

/pdf/the-aca-and-cancer-screening-and-diagnosis-353er2l0tt.pdf

The ACA and Cancer Screening and Diagnosis.

To summarize the literature on barriers and facilitators to breast and cervical cancer screening among immigrants to the US. A literature review was conducted for studies on breast and cervical cancer screening among immigrant populations. A thematic analysis of 180 studies identified a variety of barriers and facilitators to screening at the personal and system levels. Personal barriers included lack of knowledge and insurance coverage, high cost of care, and immigration status. System barriers included poor access to services, lack of interpreter services, and insensitivity to patient needs. Facilitators to screening included knowledge of disease, access to information sources, physician recommendation, and social networks. Cultural norms and resource availability at the individual and system levels influence screening among immigrants. Health insurance coverage was found to be an important predictor of preventative screening use. Future research should seek to identify the best way to address this and other barriers to cancer screening among immigrants groups.

Barriers and Facilitators to Breast and Cervical Cancer Screening Among Immigrants in the United States

Introduction: After years of setback, cancer immunotherapy has begun to yield clinical dividends, which are changing the treatment landscape and offering cancer patients the potential for long-term...

Georges Adunlin

Papers

Application of multicriteria decision analysis in health care: a systematic review and bibliometric analysis.

Survival Modeling for the Estimation of Transition Probabilities in Model-Based Economic Evaluations in the Absence of Individual Patient Data: A Tutorial

The ACA and Cancer Screening and Diagnosis.

Barriers and Facilitators to Breast and Cervical Cancer Screening Among Immigrants in the United States

Cost effectiveness vs. affordability in the age of immuno-oncology cancer drugs.