计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

2 1 The innovative transport systems and the CityMobil project 10 1.1 The research questions 10 2 The state of art in the field of automatic transport systems 12 2.1 Case studies and demand studies for innovative transport systems 12 3 The design and implementation of surveys 14 3.1 Definition of experimental design 14 3.2 Questionnaire design and delivery 16 3.3 First analyses on the collected sample 18 4 Calibration of Logit Multionomial demand models 21 4.1 Methodology 21 4.2 Calibration of the “full” model. 22 4.3 Calibration of the “final” model 24 4.4 The demand analysis through the final Multinomial Logit model 25 5 The analysis of interaction between the demand and socioeconomic attributes 31 5.1 Methodology 31 5.2 Application of Mixed Logit models to the demand 31 5.3 Analysis of the interactions between demand and socioeconomic attributes through Mixed Logit models 32 5.4 Mixed Logit model and interaction between age and the demand for the CTS 38 5.5 Demand analysis with Mixed Logit model 39 6 Final analyses and conclusions 45 6.1 Comparison between the results of the analyses 45 6.2 Conclusions 48 6.3 Answers to the research questions and future developments 52

The European commission

In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

We investigate whether income inequality affects subsequent growth in a cross-country sample for 1965-90, using the models of Barro (1997), Bleaney and Nishiyama (2002) and Sachs and Warner (1997), with negative results. We then investigate the evolution of income inequality over the same period and its correlation with growth. The dominating feature is inequality convergence across countries. This convergence has been significantly faster amongst developed countries. Growth does not appear to influence the evolution of inequality over time. Outline

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/81822/1/02-28.pdf

Economic growth and income inequality

The talk with present the key results of the IPCC Working Group III 5th assessment report. Concluding four years of intense scientific collaboration by hundreds of authors from around the world, the report responds to the request of the world's governments for a comprehensive, objective and policy neutral assessment of the current scientific knowledge on mitigating climate change. The report has been extensively reviewed by experts and governments to ensure quality and comprehensiveness.

Climate change 2014 - Mitigation of climate change

Privatization of local government services is assumed to deliver cost savings, but empirical evidence for this from around the world is mixed. We conduct a meta-regression analysis of all econometric studies examining privatization of water distribution and solid waste collection services and find no systematic support for lower costs with private production. Differences in study results are explained by differences in time period of the analyses, service characteristics, and policy environment. We do not find a genuine empirical effect of cost savings resulting from private production. The results suggest that to ensure cost savings, more attention be given to the cost characteristics of the service, the transaction costs involved, and the policy environment stimulating competition, rather than to the debate over public versus private delivery of these services. © 2010 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.

/pdf/is-private-production-of-public-services-cheaper-than-public-2lpdjhlyy9.pdf

Is Private Production of Public Services Cheaper Than Public Production? A Meta-Regression Analysis of Solid Waste and Water Services.

Cost reduction was the key benefit claimed by privatization. We conduct a review of all published econometric studies of water and waste production since 1970. Little support is found for a link between privatization and cost savings. Cost savings are not found in water delivery and are not systematic in waste. Reviewed studies build from public choice, property rights, transaction costs and industrial organization theories. We conclude public choice theory is too focused on competition, which is typically not present in quasi-markets. Property rights theory gives attention to ownership and service quality, but absent competition, ownership makes little difference on costs borne by municipalities. Transaction costs argue privatization is best when contracts are complete—a rare situation in public service markets. We find the industrial organization approach most useful in explaining results because it directly addresses incentives, sector structure and regulatory framework. Overall, the empirical results show the importance of market structure, industrial organization of the service sector, and government management, oversight and regulation. Because there is no systematic optimal choice between public and private delivery, managers should approach the issue in a pragmatic way.

/pdf/does-privatization-of-solid-waste-and-water-services-reduce-54ibph12ty.pdf

Does privatization of solid waste and water services reduce costs? A review of empirical studies

Many empirical works have been devoted to analysing the factors explaining local privatisation Overall, most of the empirical analyses have low explanatory power due to the methodological difficulties in capturing the dynamic nature of the privatisation decision The variables most often considered are those related to fiscal stress and cost reduction and political processes and ideological attitudes Our review indicates that fiscal stress and pressure from interest group are explanatory factors of local privatisation in those early studies devoted to the US that consider a broad range of services Furthermore, cost considerations seem to be taken into account by local governments, particularly when scale economies and transaction costs are taken together Finally, ideological attitudes of policy makers do not seem to influence local service delivery choices in any systematic way

Why do local governments privatise public services? A survey of empirical studies

This article examines the determinants of the location of large firms’ headquarters across a rich sample of European urban areas, focusing on the availability of non-stop intercontinental flights. We also account for the influence of other aspects: the proximity to large markets and specialized providers, congestion and tax costs, the availability of skilled labor, and the role of the urban area in the home country. Controlling for these factors, we find that the availability of direct non-stop flights has a large influence on headquarters’ location. This confirms the importance of transport infrastructures and tacit information exchanges between cities for firm location.

/pdf/getting-there-fast-globalization-intercontinental-flights-2mds3cid72.pdf

Getting there fast: globalization, intercontinental flights and location of headquarters

Recent evidence on the savings from private production of local public services has become increasingly ambiguous. Here we specify and estimate a model to explain municipal costs for solid waste collection. As we find no effect of the mode of production on costs, we put forward two hypotheses. First, progressive concentration and decreases in bidding competition may come to outweigh gains from privatization. Second, the threat of privatization may have stimulated public unit managers to search for alternative reforms. The results suggest that both inter‐municipal cooperation and recent privatization are associated with lower costs, while old privatization is not.

http://www.ub.edu/gim/articles%20web/2006/3_bel_costas_JPR.pdf

Germà Bel

Papers

Is Private Production of Public Services Cheaper Than Public Production? A Meta-Regression Analysis of Solid Waste and Water Services.

Does privatization of solid waste and water services reduce costs? A review of empirical studies

Why do local governments privatise public services? A survey of empirical studies

Getting there fast: globalization, intercontinental flights and location of headquarters

Do Public Sector Reforms Get Rusty? Local Privatization in Spain