计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

2 1 The innovative transport systems and the CityMobil project 10 1.1 The research questions 10 2 The state of art in the field of automatic transport systems 12 2.1 Case studies and demand studies for innovative transport systems 12 3 The design and implementation of surveys 14 3.1 Definition of experimental design 14 3.2 Questionnaire design and delivery 16 3.3 First analyses on the collected sample 18 4 Calibration of Logit Multionomial demand models 21 4.1 Methodology 21 4.2 Calibration of the “full” model. 22 4.3 Calibration of the “final” model 24 4.4 The demand analysis through the final Multinomial Logit model 25 5 The analysis of interaction between the demand and socioeconomic attributes 31 5.1 Methodology 31 5.2 Application of Mixed Logit models to the demand 31 5.3 Analysis of the interactions between demand and socioeconomic attributes through Mixed Logit models 32 5.4 Mixed Logit model and interaction between age and the demand for the CTS 38 5.5 Demand analysis with Mixed Logit model 39 6 Final analyses and conclusions 45 6.1 Comparison between the results of the analyses 45 6.2 Conclusions 48 6.3 Answers to the research questions and future developments 52

The European commission

In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

We investigate whether income inequality affects subsequent growth in a cross-country sample for 1965-90, using the models of Barro (1997), Bleaney and Nishiyama (2002) and Sachs and Warner (1997), with negative results. We then investigate the evolution of income inequality over the same period and its correlation with growth. The dominating feature is inequality convergence across countries. This convergence has been significantly faster amongst developed countries. Growth does not appear to influence the evolution of inequality over time. Outline

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/81822/1/02-28.pdf

Economic growth and income inequality

The talk with present the key results of the IPCC Working Group III 5th assessment report. Concluding four years of intense scientific collaboration by hundreds of authors from around the world, the report responds to the request of the world's governments for a comprehensive, objective and policy neutral assessment of the current scientific knowledge on mitigating climate change. The report has been extensively reviewed by experts and governments to ensure quality and comprehensiveness.

Climate change 2014 - Mitigation of climate change

http://diposit.ub.edu/dspace/bitstream/2445/123178/1/679472.pdf

Policy stringency under the European Union Emission trading system and its impact on technological change in the energy sector

Congestion costs are emerging as one of the most important challenges faced by metropolitan planners and transport authorities in first world economies. In US these costs were as high as 78 million dollars in 2005 and are growing due to fast increases in travel delays. In order to solve the current and severe levels of congestion the US department of transportation have recently started a program to initiate congestion pricing in five metropolitan areas. In this context it is important to determine those factors helping its implementation and success, but also the problems or difficulties associated with charging projects. In this article we analyze worldwide experiences with urban road charging in order to extract interesting and helpful lessons for policy makers engaged in congestion pricing projects and for those interested in the introduction of traffic management tools to regulate the entrance to big cities.

/pdf/shaping-urban-traffic-patterns-through-congestion-charging-5cn4urvvcr.pdf

Shaping urban traffic patterns through congestion charging: What factors drive success or failure?

Unsatisfactory results from privatisation have caused local governments to seek alternative reforms. Inter-municipal cooperation, mixed public/private delivery and contract reversals are three alternatives that have gained traction in the last decade. These alternatives help local governments manage markets for public service delivery as a dynamic process. They maximise government/market complementarities and address a wider array of public goals beyond cost efficiency concerns. The alternative reforms show how local governments balance citizen, labour and community interests to ensure efficiency, coordination and stability in public service delivery.

/pdf/beyond-privatisation-and-cost-savings-alternatives-for-local-4a6swzsmbu.pdf

Beyond privatisation and cost savings: alternatives for local government reform

https://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2014/201420.pdf

Effects of unit-based pricing on household waste collection demand: A meta-regression analysis

Analysis of the demand for inter-urban rail travel has received little attention in contrast to the large number of studies on urban travel demand. The studies on inter-urban rail demand usually emphasise the effects of monetary costs. Occasionally, changes in rail travel time are considered. However, the central aspect in our study is the impact of changes in road travel time on the demand for rail. This paper specifies and empirically estimates, an explanatory model to evaluate the impact of travel time changes on inter-urban rail demand. The change in rail passenger traffic between two periods on various routes is compared to the change in travel times on these routes. That is, it is a model estimated on the change in cross-section traffic volumes between the two periods. The empirical analysis confirms the explanatory power of changes in the intermodal structure of travel times, and shows the need to introduce the impact of these changes when studying the demand for inter-urban travel.

Germà Bel

Papers

Policy stringency under the European Union Emission trading system and its impact on technological change in the energy sector

Shaping urban traffic patterns through congestion charging: What factors drive success or failure?

Beyond privatisation and cost savings: alternatives for local government reform

Effects of unit-based pricing on household waste collection demand: A meta-regression analysis

Changes in travel time across modes and its impact on the demand for inter-urban rail travel