Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti

TL;DR: In this article, the authors studied determinants and consequences of sharp reductions in current account imbalances (reversals) in low and middle-income countries, and found that both domestic variables, such as the current account balance, openness to trade, and the level of reserves, and external variables such as terms of trade shocks, U.S. real interest rates, and growth in industrial countries, seem to play important roles in explaining reversals in current-account imbalance, and also found some evidence that countries with a less appreciated real exchange rate, higher investment, and more openness

TL;DR: This paper examined the role of foreign liabilities and their composition in the determinants of external crises and found that the ratio of net foreign liabilities to GDP is a significant crisis predictor, mainly due to the net position in debt instruments.

TL;DR: The authors examine whether the cross-country incidence and severity of the 2008-09 global recession is systematically related to precrisis macroeconomic and financial factors, and find that the precrisis level of development, increases in the ratio of private credit to GDP, current account deficits, and openness to trade are helpful in understanding the intensity of the crisis.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors employed newly constructed measures for productivity differentials, external imbalances, and commodity terms of trade to estimate a cointegrating relationship between real exchange rates and a set of fundamentals for a sample of 48 industrial countries and emerging markets.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a model in which government resources can be used "productivity" or "unproductively" for the benefit of the ruling party's constituency, and highlight the role of policy decisions that affect incentives and constraints faced by future governments.