This paper proposes a new generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) process, the asymmetric generalized dynamic conditional correlation (AG-DCC) model The AG-DCC process extends previous specifications along two dimensions: it allows for series-specific news impact and smoothing parameters and permits conditional asymmetries in correlation dynamics The AG-DCC specification is well suited to examine correlation dynamics among different asset classes and investigate the presence of asymmetric responses in conditional variances and correlations to negative returns We employ the AG-DCC model to analyze the behavior of international equities and government bonds While equity returns show strong evidence of asymmetries in conditional volatility, little is found for bond returns However, both equities and bonds exhibit asymmetries in conditional correlations, with equities responding stronger than bonds to joint bad news The article also finds that, during periods of financial turmoil, equity market volatilities show important linkages, and conditional equity correlations among regional groups increase dramatically Furthermore, in January 1999 with the introduction of the euro, we document significant evidence of a structural break in correlation although not in

/pdf/asymmetric-dynamics-in-the-correlations-of-global-equity-and-1zhlal3wdu.pdf

Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns

It appears that volatility in equity markets is asymmetric: returns and conditional volatility are negatively correlated. We provide a unified framework to simultaneously investigate asymmetric volatility at the firm and the market level and to examine two potential explanations of the asymmetry: leverage effects and time-varying risk premiums. Our empirical application uses the market portfolio and portfolios with different leverage constructed from Nikkei 225 stocks, extending the empirical evidence on asymmetry to Japanese stocks. Although volatility asymmetry is present and significant at the market and the portfolio levels, its source differs across portfolios. We find that it is important to include leverage ratios in the volatility dynamics but that their economic effects are mostly dwarfed by the volatility feedback mechanism. Volatility feedback is enhanced by a phenomenon that we term covariance asymmetry: conditional covariances with the market increase only significantly following negative market news. We do not find significant asymmetries in conditional betas.

Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets

It appears that volatility in equity markets is asymmetric: returns and conditional volatility are negatively correlated We provide a unified framework to simultaneously investigate asymmetric volatility at the firm and the market level and to examine two potential explanations of the asymmetry: leverage effects and volatility feedback Our empirical application uses the market portfolio and portfolios with different leverage constructed from Nikkei 225 stocks We reject the pure Ž leverage model of Christie 1982 and find support for a volatility feedback story Volatility feedback at the firm level is enhanced by strong asymmetries in conditional covariances Conditional betas do not show significant asymmetries We document the risk premium implications of these findings

/pdf/asymmetric-volatility-and-risk-in-equity-markets-3xazlaizxa.pdf

Asymmetric volatility and risk in equity markets

Features of Financial Returns Modelling Price Volatility Forecasting Standard Deviations The Accuracy of Autocorrelation Estimates Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis Forecasting Trends in Prices Evidence Against the Efficiency of Futures Markets Valuing Options Appendix: A Computer Program for Modelling Financial Time Series.

Modelling Financial Time Series

This paper reexamines Asian stock market contagion by applying a dynamic multivariate GARCH model to daily stock-return data in nine Asian countries and the United States during the period from 1996 to 2003. The empirical results find supportive evidence of a contagion effect. By analyzing the correlation-coefficient series, this paper identifies two phases of the Asian crisis. The first phase shows an increase in correlation (contagion) and the second phase shows continued high correlation (herding). Statistical analysis of the correlation coefficients shows shifts in the level as well as in the variance of the correlation coefficients during the crisis period, casting some doubt on the benefit of international portfolio diversification. This study finds that international rating agents play significant role in shaping the structure of dynamic correlations in the Asian markets.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1052661_code365382.pdf?abstractid=1052661&type=2

Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Financial Contagion: Evidence from Asian Countries

Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets

The growing globalization of financial markets has been accompanied by a growing body of empirical research attempting to describe and quantify the ways in which financial markets within and across countries interact. Better understanding of the nature of cross market linkages and interactions could be of help to investors and policy makers alike. With respect to policy, aspects of market interaction that promote efficiency could, in principle, be facilitated whereas, those with undesirable side effects could be controlled. Likewise, investment and hedging strategies could be more effective if the nature of market interactions were better understood. The extant literature provides convincing evidence that financial markets do influence each other. For example, Koch and Koch (1991) provide evidence on the evolution of contemporaneous and lead/lag relationships among eight national stock markets. They suggest that regional interdependencies have grown over time. Becker, Finnerty, and Gupta (1990) show that information generated in the US stock market could be used to trade profitably in Japan, contrary to the market efficiency hypothesis. However, when transaction costs and transfer taxes are included into the analysis, excess profits vanish. Eun and Shim (1989) document that markets around the globe respond to innovations in a way that is consistent with the notion of informationally efficient international stock markets. King and Wadhwani (1990) use a rational expectations model with asymmetric information to test for 'contagion effects' i.e., the notion that valuation mistakes in one market can be transmitted to other markets.' More recent papers extend the scope of market interaction to include second moment linkages. This extension allows testing ofthe hypothesis that information generated in a given market at time / is useful in terms of predicting the conditional mean and variance in another market at time t+l. Hamao, Masulis and Ng (1990) examine first and second moment interdependencies in the three major stock markets (New York, Tokyo, and London) using univariate GARCH models. For the period after the October 1987 worldwide stock market crash, they find that innovations coming from

Modeling the dynamic interdependence of major european stock markets

Temporal relationships and dynamic interactions between spot and futures stock markets

https://isiarticles.com/bundles/Article/pre/pdf/8915.pdf

Asymmetric exchange rate exposure: theory and evidence

https://www.euclidgroup.com/userfiles/Feedback.pdf

Gregory Koutmos

Papers

Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets

Modeling the dynamic interdependence of major european stock markets

Temporal relationships and dynamic interactions between spot and futures stock markets

Asymmetric exchange rate exposure: theory and evidence

Index futures and positive feedback trading : evidence from major stock exchanges.