We present new global maps of the Koppen-Geiger climate classification at an unprecedented 1-km resolution for the present-day (1980–2016) and for projected future conditions (2071–2100) under climate change. The present-day map is derived from an ensemble of four high-resolution, topographically-corrected climatic maps. The future map is derived from an ensemble of 32 climate model projections (scenario RCP8.5), by superimposing the projected climate change anomaly on the baseline high-resolution climatic maps. For both time periods we calculate confidence levels from the ensemble spread, providing valuable indications of the reliability of the classifications. The new maps exhibit a higher classification accuracy and substantially more detail than previous maps, particularly in regions with sharp spatial or elevation gradients. We anticipate the new maps will be useful for numerous applications, including species and vegetation distribution modeling. The new maps including the associated confidence maps are freely available via www.gloh2o.org/koppen
 . Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data (ISA-Tab format)

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Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution

Framework Convention on Climate Change

Glacial melting in the Tibetan Plateau affects the water resources of millions of people. This study finds that—partly owing to changes in atmospheric circulations and precipitation patterns—the most intensive glacier shrinkage is in the Himalayan region, whereas glacial retreat in the Pamir Plateau region is less apparent.

Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings

Soil bacteria and fungi play key roles in the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, yet our understanding of their responses to climate change lags significantly behind that of other organisms. This gap in our understanding is particularly true for drylands, which occupy ∼41% of Earth´s surface, because no global, systematic assessments of the joint diversity of soil bacteria and fungi have been conducted in these environments to date. Here we present results from a study conducted across 80 dryland sites from all continents, except Antarctica, to assess how changes in aridity affect the composition, abundance, and diversity of soil bacteria and fungi. The diversity and abundance of soil bacteria and fungi was reduced as aridity increased. These results were largely driven by the negative impacts of aridity on soil organic carbon content, which positively affected the abundance and diversity of both bacteria and fungi. Aridity promoted shifts in the composition of soil bacteria, with increases in the relative abundance of Chloroflexi and α-Proteobacteria and decreases in Acidobacteria and Verrucomicrobia. Contrary to what has been reported by previous continental and global-scale studies, soil pH was not a major driver of bacterial diversity, and fungal communities were dominated by Ascomycota. Our results fill a critical gap in our understanding of soil microbial communities in terrestrial ecosystems. They suggest that changes in aridity, such as those predicted by climate-change models, may reduce microbial abundance and diversity, a response that will likely impact the provision of key ecosystem services by global drylands.

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Increasing aridity reduces soil microbial diversity and abundance in global drylands

The soil microbiome governs biogeochemical cycling of macronutrients, micronutrients and other elements vital for the growth of plants and animal life. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change on soil microbiomes and the ecosystem services they provide present a grand challenge and major opportunity as we direct our research efforts towards one of the most pressing problems facing our planet. In this Review, we explore the current state of knowledge about the impacts of climate change on soil microorganisms in different climate-sensitive soil ecosystems, as well as potential ways that soil microorganisms can be harnessed to help mitigate the negative consequences of climate change. In this Review, Jansson and Hofmockel explore the impacts of climate change on soil microorganisms in different climate-sensitive soil ecosystems and the potential ways that soil microorganisms can be harnessed to help mitigate the negative consequences of climate change.

Soil microbiomes and climate change

Climate change is causing drylands to expand and this work shows that they will cover half of the land surface by 2100 under a moderate emissions scenario. Drylands are home to more than 38% of the total global population and are one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and human activities1,2. Projecting the areal change in drylands is essential for taking early action to prevent the aggravation of global desertification3,4. However, dryland expansion has been underestimated in the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations5 considering the past 58 years (1948–2005). Here, using historical data to bias-correct CMIP5 projections, we show an increase in dryland expansion rate resulting in the drylands covering half of the global land surface by the end of this century. Dryland area, projected under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, will increase by 23% and 11%, respectively, relative to 1961–1990 baseline, equalling 56% and 50%, respectively, of total land surface. Such an expansion of drylands would lead to reduced carbon sequestration and enhanced regional warming6,7, resulting in warming trends over the present drylands that are double those over humid regions. The increasing aridity, enhanced warming and rapidly growing human population will exacerbate the risk of land degradation and desertification in the near future in the drylands of developing countries, where 78% of dryland expansion and 50% of the population growth will occur under RCP8.5.

Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change

Limiting average global warming to 2 °C will not limit regional warming to the same levels. This study shows drylands have warmed, and will continue to warm, more than the humid lands that are primarily responsible for emissions. The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean surface warming to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels1,2,3. However, we show this target is acceptable only for humid lands, whereas drylands will bear greater warming risks. Over the past century, surface warming over global drylands (1.2–1.3 °C) has been 20–40% higher than that over humid lands (0.8–1.0 °C), while anthropogenic CO2 emissions generated from drylands (∼230 Gt) have been only ∼30% of those generated from humid lands (∼750 Gt). For the twenty-first century, warming of 3.2–4.0 °C (2.4–2.6 °C) over drylands (humid lands) could occur when global warming reaches 2.0 °C, indicating ∼44% more warming over drylands than humid lands. Decreased maize yields and runoff, increased long-lasting drought and more favourable conditions for malaria transmission are greatest over drylands if global warming were to rise from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Our analyses indicate that ∼38% of the world’s population living in drylands would suffer the effects of climate change due to emissions primarily from humid lands. If the 1.5 °C warming limit were attained, the mean warming over drylands could be within 3.0 °C; therefore it is necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 °C to prevent disastrous effects over drylands.

Drylands face potential threat under 2[thinsp][deg]C global warming target

Atmospheric oxygen (O2) is the most crucial element on earth for the aerobic organisms that depend on it to release energy from carbon-based macromolecules. This is the first study to systematically analyze the global O2 budget and its changes over the past 100 years. It is found that anthropogenic fossil fuel combustion is the largest contributor to the current O2 deficit, which consumed 2.0 Gt/a in 1900 and has increased to 38.2 Gt/a by 2015. Under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP8.5 scenario, approximately 100Gt (gigatonnes) of O2 would be removed from the atmosphere per year until 2100, and the O2 concentration will decrease from its current level of 20.946% to 20.825%. Human activities have caused irreversible decline of atmospheric O2. It is time to take actions to promote O2 production and reduce O2 consumption.

The global oxygen budget and its future projection

. As climate change has occurred over east Asia since the 1950s, intense interest and debate have arisen concerning the contribution of human activities to the observed warming in past decades. In this study, we investigate regional surface temperature change during the boreal cold season using a recently developed methodology that can successfully identify and separate the dynamically induced temperature (DIT) and radiatively forced temperature (RFT) changes in raw surface air temperature (SAT) data. For regional averages, DIT and RFT contribute 44 and 56 % to the SAT over east Asia, respectively. The DIT changes dominate the SAT decadal variability and are mainly determined by internal climate variability, represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). Radiatively forced SAT changes have made a major contribution to the global-scale warming trend and the regional-scale enhanced semi-arid warming (ESAW). Such enhanced warming is also found in radiatively forced daily maximum and minimum SAT. The long-term global-mean SAT warming trend is mainly related to radiative forcing produced by global well-mixed greenhouse gases. The regional anthropogenic radiative forcing, however, caused the enhanced warming in the semi-arid region, which may be closely associated with local human activities. Finally, the relationship between the so-called "global warming hiatus" and regional enhanced warming is discussed.

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Role of radiatively forced temperature changes in enhanced semi-arid warming in the cold season over east Asia

. The impacts of clouds and atmospheric aerosols on the terrestrial carbon cycle at semi-arid Loess Plateau in Northwest China are investigated, by using the observation data obtained at the SACOL (Semi-Arid Climate and Environment Observatory of Lanzhou University) site. Daytime (solar elevation angles of larger than 50°) net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 obtained during the midgrowing season (July–August) are analyzed with respect to variations in the diffuse radiation, cloud cover and aerosol optical depth (AOD). Results show a significant impact by clouds on the CO2 uptake by the grassland (with smaller LAI values) located in a semi-arid region, quite different from areas covered by forests and crops. The light saturation levels in the canopy are low, with a value of about 434.8 W m−2. Thus, under overcast conditions of optically thick clouds, the CO2 uptake increases with increasing clearness index (the ratio of global solar radiation received at the Earth surface to the extraterrestrial irradiance at a plane parallel to the Earth surface), and a maximum CO2 uptake and light use efficiency of vegetation occur with the clearness index of about 0.37 and lower air temperature. Under other sky conditions, CO2 uptake decreases with cloudiness but light use efficiency is enhanced, due to increased diffuse fraction of PAR. Additionally, under cloudy conditions, changes in the NEE of CO2 also result from the interactions of many environmental factors, especially the air temperature. In contrast to its response to changes in solar radiation, the carbon uptake shows a slightly negative response to increased AOD. The reason for the difference in the response of the semi-arid grassland from that of the forest and crop lands may be due to the difference in the canopy's architectural structure.

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Haipeng Yu

Papers

Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change

Drylands face potential threat under 2[thinsp][deg]C global warming target

The global oxygen budget and its future projection

Role of radiatively forced temperature changes in enhanced semi-arid warming in the cold season over east Asia

The effects of clouds and aerosols on net ecosystem CO 2 exchange over semi-arid Loess Plateau of Northwest China