The External Control of Organizations.

Consensus methods such as the Delphi survey technique are being employed to help enhance effective decision-making in health and social care. The Delphi survey is a group facilitation technique, which is an iterative multistage process, designed to transform opinion into group consensus. It is a flexible approach, that is used commonly within the health and social sciences, yet little guidance exists to help researchers undertake this method of data collection. This paper aims to provide an understanding of the preparation, action steps and difficulties that are inherent within the Delphi. Used systematically and rigorously, the Delphi can contribute significantly to broadening knowledge within the nursing profession. However, careful thought must be given before using the method; there are key issues surrounding problem identification, researcher skills and data presentation that must be addressed. The paper does not claim to be definitive; it purports to act as a guide for those researchers who wish to exploit the Delphi methodology.

Research guidelines for the Delphi survey technique.

https://spectrum.library.concordia.ca/976864/1/OkoliPawlowski2004DelphiPostprint.pdf

The Delphi method as a research tool: an example, design considerations and applications

The Montreal Definition and Classification of Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease: A Global Evidence-Based Consensus

The Delphi method was originally developed in the 50s by the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, California. This approach consists of a survey conducted in two or more rounds and provides the participants in the second round with the results of the first so that they can alter the original assessments if they want to-or stick to their previous opinion. Nobody 'looses face' because the survey is done anonymously using a questionnaire (the first Delphis were panels). It is commonly assumed that the method makes better use of group interaction (Rowe et al. 1991, Häder/Häder 1995) whereby the questionnaire is the medium of interaction (Martino 1983). The Delphi method is especially useful for long-range forecasting (20-30 years), as expert opinions are the only source of information available. Meanwhile, the communication effect of Delphi studies and therefore the value of the process as such is also acknowledged. During the last ten years, the Delphi method was used more often especially for national science and technology foresight. Some modifications and methodological improvements have been made, meanwhile. Nevertheless, one has to be aware of the strengths and weaknesses of the method so that it cannot be applied in every case. It is useful for an assessment of new things to come and in cases, which can be explained very shortly. This means for complex themes, it is better to use other methodologies like scenarios and to take into account what Delphi results can provide as single information pieces. Thus, Delphi studies were mainly applied in science, technology and education contexts, but one can think of different occasions. Delphi studies are rather complex procedures and require some resources depending on the breadth of the study planned. Delphi studies are processes that include the preparation, a survey in two or more rounds and some analyses and application (implementation) when the survey is finished. All three phases are important and are addressed during the course. For the preparation phase and the implementation, some practical exercises in small groups are conducted so that the participants gain a feeling for a Delphi procedure.

The Delphi method

Cross-impact analysis is a method for revising estimated probabilities of future events in terms of estimated interactions among those events. This Report presents an elementary cross-impact model where the cross-impacts are formulated as relative probabilities. Conditions are derived for the consistency of the matrix of relative probabilities of n events. An extension also provides a necessary condition for the vector of absolute probabilities to be consistent with the relative probability matrix. An averaging technique is formulated for resolving inconsistencies in the matrix, and a nearest-point computation derived for resolving inconsistencies between the set of absolute probabilities and the matrix. Although elementary, the present model clarifies some of the conceptual problems associated with cross-impact analysis, and supplies a relatively sound basis for revising probability estimates in the limited case where interactions can be approximated by relative probabilities.

the delphi method: techniques and applications

The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications

Global markets, the service economy, Japanese competition, increased consumer sophistication - the world of business is as fast-moving as ever, but as this controversial study claims, many traditional strategies have either simply failed to keep pace or lost their sense of direction. The only way forward is change. Weaving together insights gleaned from philosophy, psychology, economics and management science, and analyzing such examples as the decline of the US auto industry, the Bhopal disaster and the scare at Three Mile Island, the authors reveal that simplification is a thing of the past, and that varying perspectives, multiple realities, and openness to multiple solutions are the key to modern business thinking and decision-making.

The Unbounded Mind: Breaking the Chains of Traditional Business Thinking

The Usual Perspective and Its Limitations. Our Proposed Perspectives. Illustrations from the Public Sector. Illustrations from the Private Sector. Technology -- Risk and Assessment. Technology -- Forecasting and Planning. Looking Ahead -- Complexity Science, Chaos, and Multiple Perspectives. Guidelines for the User. Appendices.

Harold A. Linstone

Papers

the delphi method: techniques and applications

The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications

The Unbounded Mind: Breaking the Chains of Traditional Business Thinking

Decision making for technology executives : using multiple perspectives to improved performance

The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications