Showing papers by "Haroon Sajjad published in 2022"

Deep learning versus gradient boosting machine for pan evaporation prediction

Abstract: ABSTRACT In the present study, two innovative techniques namely, Deep Learning (DL) and Gradient boosting Machine (GBM) models are developed based on a maximum air temperature ‘univariate modeling scheme’ for modeling the monthly pan evaporation (E pan) process. Monthly air temperature and pan evaporation are used to build the predictive models. These models are used for evaluating the evaporation prediction for the Kiashahr meteorological station located in the north of Iran and Ranichauri station positioned in Uttarakhand State of India. Findings indicated that the deep learning model was found best at Kiashahr station for testing datasets MAE (0.5691, mm/month), RMSE (0.7111, mm/month), NSE (0.7496), and IOA (0.9413). It can be concluded that in the semi-arid climate of Iran both of the used methods had the good capability in modeling of monthly E pan. However, DL predicted monthly E pan better than GBM. Moreover, the highest accuracy of the deep learning model was also observed for the Ranichauri station in terms of MAE = 0.3693 mm/month, RMSE = 0.4357 mm/month, NSE = 0.8344, & IOA = 0.9507 in testing stage. Overall, results expose the superior performance of DL-based models for both study stations and can also be utilized for various other environmental modeling.

Forest Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Review for Future Research Framework

Abstract: Climate change has caused vulnerability not only to the forest ecosystem but also to forest-dependent communities. Therefore, its management is essential to increase forest ecosystem services and reduce vulnerability to climate change using an integrated approach. Although many scientific studies examined climate change impact on forest ecosystems, forest vulnerability assessment, including forest sensitivity, adaptability, sustainability and effective management was found to be scant in the existing literature. Through a systematic review from 1990 to 2019, this paper examined forest vulnerability to climate change and its management practices. In this paper, descriptive, mechanism and thematic analyses were carried out to analyze the state of existing research, in order to understand the concept of vulnerability arising from climate change and forest management issues. The present study proposed a framework for integrated forest assessment and management for addressing such issues in future research. The conversion of forest land into other land uses, forest fragmentation, forest disturbance and the effects of climate change on the forest ecosystem are the existing problems. Forest vulnerability, effective adaptation to forest ecosystems and long-term sustainability are priority areas for future research. This study also calls for undertaking researchers at a local scale to involve communities for the effective management of forest ecosystems.

Integrated approach for spatial flood susceptibility assessment in Bhagirathi sub‐basin, India using entropy information theory and geospatial technology

Abstract: Globally, floods as dynamic hydraulic hazard have caused widespread damages to both socioeconomic conditions and environment at various scales. Managing flood and management of water resource is a global challenge under the changing climatic condition. This study assessed flood susceptibility in the Bhagirathi sub‐basin, India using entropy information theory and geospatial technology. Twelve flood susceptibility parameters such as land use/land cover, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), slope, elevation, geology, geomorphology, normalized difference water index (NDWI), soil, drainage density, average rainfall, maximum temperature, and humidity during monsoon season were utilized to examine flood susceptibility. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and Leave‐One‐Out Cross‐Validation (LOOCV) techniques were carried out to validate flood susceptibility map. Kappa statistics was also used to check the reliability of the flood susceptibility model. Findings of the study revealed that nearly 45% area of the sub‐basin was highly susceptible to flood followed by moderate (29.3%), very high (19%), low (6.9%), and very low (0.2%). These findings also revealed that nearly 92% area in the eastern, north‐eastern, and deltaic sub‐basin was susceptible to floods. ROC analysis indicated high success (0.932) and prediction (0.903) rates for the susceptibility map while LOOCV (R2 being 0.97) and Kappa (k = 0.934) have shown substantial prediction of the model. Hence, the susceptibility maps are useful for the local planners and government organization in designing the early flood warning system, and reducing the human and economic losses. The methodology used in this study is applicable for analyzing flood susceptibility at spatial scales in similar systems.

Assessing the Influence of Land Use/Land Cover Alteration on Climate Variability: An Analysis in the Aurangabad District of Maharashtra State, India

Abstract: Examining the influence of land use/land cover transformation on meteorological variables has become imperative for maintaining long-term climate sustainability. Rapid growth and haphazard expansion have caused the conversion of prime agricultural land into a built-up area. This study used multitemporal Landsat data to analyze land use/land cover (LULC) changes, and Terra Climate monthly data to examine the impact of land transformation on precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, wind speed, and soil moisture in the Aurangabad district of Maharashtra state in India during 1999–2019. Multiple linear regression and correlation analysis were performed to determine the association among LULC classes and climatic variables. This study revealed rapid urbanization in the study area over the years. The built-up area, water bodies, and barren lands have recorded a steep rise, while the agricultural area has decreased in the district. Drastic changes were observed in the climatic variables over the years. The precipitation and wind speed have shown decreasing trends during the study period. A positive relationship between soil moisture and agricultural land was found through a correlation analysis. Conspicuous findings about the positive relationship between the agricultural land and maximum temperature need further investigation. A multiple linear regression analysis demonstrated a negative relationship between the built-up area and precipitation. The intensity of the precipitation has reduced as a consequence of the developmental activities in the study area. Moreover, a positive relationship was observed between the built-up area and maximum temperature. Thus, this study calls for policy implications to formulate a futuristic land-use plan considering climate change projection in the district.

Assessment of suitable habitat of mangrove species for prioritizing restoration in coastal ecosystem of Sundarban Biosphere Reserve, India

Abstract: Abstract Mangrove forests being the abode of diverse fauna and flora are vital for healthy coastal ecosystems. These forests act as a carbon sequester and protection shield against floods, storms, and cyclones. The mangroves of the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR), being one of the most dynamic and productive ecosystems in the world are in constant degradation. Hence, habitat suitability assessment of mangrove species is of paramount significance for its restoration and ecological benefits. The study aims to assess and prioritize restoration targets for 18 true mangrove species using 10 machine-learning algorithm-based habitat suitability models in the SBR. We identified the degraded mangrove areas between 1975 and 2020 by using Landsat images and field verification. The reserve was divided into 5609 grids using 1 km gird size for understanding the nature of mangrove degradation and collection of species occurrence data. A total of 36 parameters covering physical, environmental, soil, water, bio-climatic and disturbance aspects were chosen for habitat suitability assessment. Niche overlay function and grid-based habitat suitability classes were used to identify the species-based restoration prioritize grids. Habitat suitability analysis revealed that nearly half of the grids are highly suitable for mangrove habitat in the Reserve. Restoration within highly suitable mangrove grids could be achieved in the areas covered with less than 75 percent mangroves and lesser anthropogenic disturbance. The study calls for devising effective management strategies for monitoring and conserving the degraded mangrove cover. Monitoring and effective management strategies can help in maintaining and conserving the degraded mangrove cover. The model proves to be useful for assessing site suitability for restoring mangroves. The other geographical regions interested in assessing habitat suitability and prioritizing the restoration of mangroves may find the methodology adopted in this study effective.

Analyzing trend and forecast of rainfall and temperature in Valmiki Tiger Reserve, India, using non-parametric test and random forest machine learning algorithm

Abstract: Assessment of spatiotemporal dynamics of meteorological variables and their forecast is essential in the context of climate change. Such analysis can help suggest possible solutions for flora and fauna in protected areas and adaptation strategies to make forests and communities more resilient. The present study attempts to analyze climate variability, trend and forecast of temperature and rainfall in the Valmiki Tiger Reserve, India. We utilized rainfall and temperature gridded data obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department during 1981–2020. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were employed to examine the time series trend and magnitude of change at the annual, monthly and seasonal levels. Random forest machine learning algorithm was used to estimate seasonal prediction and forecasting of rainfall and temperature trend for the next ten years (2021–2030). The predictive capacity of the model was evaluated by statistical performance assessors of coefficient of correlation, mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error. The findings revealed a significant decreasing trend in rainfall and an increasing trend in temperature. However, a declining trend for maximum temperature has been observed for winter and post-monsoon seasons. The results of seasonal forecasting exhibited a considerable decrease in rainfall and temperature across the Reserve during all the seasons. However, the temperature will increase during the summer season. The random forest machine learning algorithm has shown its effectiveness in forecasting the temperature and rainfall variables. The findings suggest that these approaches may be used at various spatial scales in different geographical locations.

Climate variability induced livelihood vulnerability: A Systematic Review and Future Prospects

Abstract: Climate variability has increased the frequency of disasters and affected the livelihood of the people to a greater extent. Therefore, livelihood vulnerability assessment assumes greater significance for understanding the interlinkages between climate variability induced disasters and livelihood pattern. In this paper, an attempt has been made to trace knowledge gaps, examine trends of research, and suggest future direction. We first collected 191 articles in the domain from Web of Science and Google scholar search engines from 1999 to 2019. Descriptive and thematic attributes of these articles were reviewed for identifying the missing links between climate variability and livelihood vulnerability and recommending future research action. Findings revealed that most of the studies were conducted at the local and regional level where the agricultural sector has taken dominance over other sectors. There is limited inter-disciplinary coordination on the subject leading to limited cross scale interactions. Geographically, more studies were carried out in the plains. Future research should focus on mountains and coastal areas. Forest, aquaculture and dairy farming should accord priority in such ecosystems. Empirical studies with inter-disciplinary approach need to be carried out for livelihood vulnerability assessment.

Quantifying spatio-temporal variation in aquaculture production areas in Satkhira, Bangladesh using geospatial and social survey

Abstract: Despite Bangladesh being one of the leading countries in aquaculture food production worldwide, there is a considerable lack of updated scientific information about aquaculture activities in remote sites, making it difficult to manage sustainably. This study explored the use of geospatial and field data to monitor spatio-temporal changes in aquaculture production sites in the Satkhira district from 2017–2019. We used Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission digital elevation model (SRTM DEM) to locate aquaculture ponds based on the terrain elevation and slope. Radar backscatter information from the Sentinel-1 satellite, and different water indices derived from Sentinel-2 were used to assess the spatio-temporal extents of aquaculture areas. An image segmentation algorithm was applied to detect aquaculture ponds based on backscattering intensity, size and shape characteristics. Our results show that the highest number of aquaculture ponds were observed in January, with a size of more than 30,000 ha. Object-based image classification of Sentinel-1 data showed an overall accuracy above 80%. The key factors responsible for the variation in aquaculture were investigated using field surveys. We noticed that despite a significant number of aquaculture ponds in the study area, shrimp production and export are decreasing because of a lack of infrastructure, poor governance, and lack of awareness in the local communities. The result of this study can provide in-depth information about aquaculture areas, which is vital for policymakers and environmental administrators for successful aquaculture management in Satkhira, Bangladesh and other countries with similar issues.