https://dro.deakin.edu.au/eserv/DU:30146218/sharifulislam-globalburden-2020.pdf

Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990–2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study

正しい方法がわかる臨床基本手技 : from the New England journal of medicine

Watts N, Amann M, Ayeb-Karlsson S, et al. The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health. Lancet 2018; 391: 581–630—In this Review (published online first on Oct 30, 2017), Jonathan Chambers, Ian Hamilton, Robert Lowe, and Steve Pye's affiliation has been corrected to UCL Energy Institute, London, UK; Fereidoon Owfi and Mahnaz Rabbaniha's affiliation has been corrected to Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, AREEO, Tehran, Iran; Meisam Tabatabaei's affiliation has been corrected to Biofuel Research Team, Agricultural Biotechnology Research Institute of Iran, AREEO, Karaj, Iran; and Ali Mohammad Latifi's affiliation has been corrected to Applied Biotechnology Research Center, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. In figures 31, 33, and 34, the formatting of the currency in the y-axis title has been corrected to US$2016. In figure 36, the y-axis title has been corrected to “Fossil fuel consumption subsidies (US$2016 billion)”. In figure 37, RGGI has been explained in the figure legend and an asterisk symbol has been removed from the figure. In Table 2, CO2 has been spelled out as carbon dioxide. These corrections have been made to the online version as of Nov 23, 2017, and the printed Review is correct.

The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health (vol 391, pg 540, 2017)

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100-231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. The number of excess deaths, excess deaths per 100,000 people and relative increase in deaths were similar between men and women in most countries. England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest effect: ~100 excess deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a 37% (30-44%) relative increase in England and Wales and 38% (31-45%) in Spain. Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland experienced mortality changes that ranged from possible small declines to increases of 5% or less in either sex. The heterogeneous mortality effects of the COVID-19 pandemic reflect differences in how well countries have managed the pandemic and the resilience and preparedness of the health and social care system.

/pdf/magnitude-demographics-and-dynamics-of-the-effect-of-the-20fmyiqps6.pdf

Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries.

I came to review this book by chance, having studied spatial epidemiology some years ago. Reviewing the book was an opportunity to update myself in this field, and see what had changed and what was new.

The book covers a wide range of material, including a description of data sources and their limitations, and the theoretical basis for the statistical methods that can be …

https://jech.bmj.com/content/jech/57/3/232.2.full.pdf

Spatial epidemiology: methods and applications

Background 
Exposure to fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) is hazardous to health. Our aim was to directly estimate the health and longevity impacts of current PM2.5 concentrations and the benefits of reductions from 1999 to 2015, nationally and at county level, for the entire contemporary population of the contiguous United States.


Methods and findings 
We used vital registration and population data with information on sex, age, cause of death, and county of residence. We used four Bayesian spatiotemporal models, with different adjustments for other determinants of mortality, to directly estimate mortality and life expectancy loss due to current PM2.5 pollution and the benefits of reductions since 1999, nationally and by county. The covariates included in the adjusted models were per capita income; percentage of population whose family income is below the poverty threshold, who are of Black or African American race, who have graduated from high school, who live in urban areas, and who are unemployed; cumulative smoking; and mean temperature and relative humidity. In the main model, which adjusted for these covariates and for unobserved county characteristics through the use of county-specific random intercepts, PM2.5 pollution in excess of the lowest observed concentration (2.8 μg/m3) was responsible for an estimated 15,612 deaths (95% credible interval 13,248–17,945) in females and 14,757 deaths (12,617–16,919) in males. These deaths would lower national life expectancy by an estimated 0.15 years (0.13–0.17) for women and 0.13 years (0.11–0.15) for men. The life expectancy loss due to PM2.5 was largest around Los Angeles and in some southern states such as Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Alabama. At any PM2.5 concentration, life expectancy loss was, on average, larger in counties with lower income and higher poverty rate than in wealthier counties. Reductions in PM2.5 since 1999 have lowered mortality in all but 14 counties where PM2.5 increased slightly. The main limitation of our study, similar to other observational studies, is that it is not guaranteed for the observed associations to be causal. We did not have annual county-level data on other important determinants of mortality, such as healthcare access and quality and diet, but these factors were adjusted for with use of county-specific random intercepts.


Conclusions 
According to our estimates, recent reductions in particulate matter pollution in the USA have resulted in public health benefits. Nonetheless, we estimate that current concentrations are associated with mortality impacts and loss of life expectancy, with larger impacts in counties with lower income and higher poverty rate.

/pdf/particulate-matter-air-pollution-and-national-and-county-43xsmafqdn.pdf

Particulate matter air pollution and national and county life expectancy loss in the USA: A spatiotemporal analysis.

Temperatures that deviate from the long-term local norm affect human health, and are projected to become more frequent as the global climate changes1. There are limited data on how such anomalies affect deaths from injuries. In the present study, we used data on mortality and temperature over 38 years (1980–2017) in the contiguous USA and formulated a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to quantify how anomalous temperatures, defined as deviations of monthly temperature from the local average monthly temperature over the entire analysis period, affect deaths from unintentional (transport, falls and drownings) and intentional (assault and suicide) injuries, by age group and sex. We found that a 1.5 °C anomalously warm year, as envisioned under the Paris Climate Agreement2, would be associated with an estimated 1,601 (95% credible interval 1,430–1,776) additional injury deaths. Of these additional deaths, 84% would occur in males, mostly in adolescence to middle age. These would comprise increases in deaths from drownings, transport, assault and suicide, offset partly by a decline in deaths from falls in older ages. The findings demonstrate the need for targeted interventions against injuries during periods of anomalously warm temperatures, especially as these episodes are likely to increase with global climate change. Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of mortality from injuries in the contiguous USA shows increases in the number of deaths attributable to abnormal temperature fluctuations due to global heating.

/pdf/anomalously-warm-temperatures-are-associated-with-increased-1yo32cijfn.pdf

Anomalously warm temperatures are associated with increased injury deaths

Caspian sea ice concentration from satellite passive microwave data and surface daily air temperatures are analysed from 1978 to 2009. Relationships between mean winter air temperatures, cumulative freezing degree days (CFDD) and the sum of daily ice area (cumulative ice area) are found. These show that mean monthly air temperature of less than 5.5–9.5 °C, and a minimum CFDD of 3.6 ± 11.2 °C, are required for ice formation in the northern Caspian. Examination of climate projections from multi-model ensembles of monthly mean air temperatures suggest that the northern Caspian may be largely ice-free by 2100 for the highest emission scenario. An ocean–ice–atmosphere model of the Caspian shows weak sensitivities of the minimum CFDD to varied sea ice albedo and ice compressive strength. Sea level decline is found to reduce the minimum CFDD as well as promote the formation of higher concentration or ‘closed ice’.

Helen Tamura-Wicks

Papers

Particulate matter air pollution and national and county life expectancy loss in the USA: A spatiotemporal analysis.

Anomalously warm temperatures are associated with increased injury deaths

Sensitivity of Caspian sea‐ice to air temperature

Reply to: Concerns over calculating injury-related deaths associated with temperature.

Impact of Anomalous Temperature on Injury Mortality by Age and Sex in the USA