Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data

http://cms-content.bates.edu/prebuilt/berg_&_patillo.pdf

Predicting currency crises

Summary This paper examines the efficacy of the general-to-specific modeling approach associated with the LSE school of econometrics using a simulation framework. A mechanical algorithm is developed which mimics some aspects of the search procedures used by LSE practitioners. The algorithm is tested using 1000 replications of each of nine regression models and a data set patterned after Lovell’s (1983) study of data mining. The algorithm is assessed for its ability to recover the data-generating process. Monte Carlo estimates of the size and power of exclusion tests based on t-statistics for individual variables in the specification are also provided. The roles of alternative sizes for specification tests in the algorithm, the consequences of different signal-to-noise ratios, and strategies for reducing overparameterization are also investigated. The results are largely favorable to the general-tospecific approach. In particular, the size of exclusion tests remains close to the nominal size used in the algorithm despite extensive search.

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Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search

I derive the generating mechanism of a temporally aggregated process when the disaggregated one belongs to the vector autoregressive integrated moving average class. I then study the effects of temporal aggregation on a set of characteristics of usual interest such as exogeneity, causality, cointegration, and common features. An empirical example with Canadian interest rates illustrates the main issues.

Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis

An econometric methodology for estimating both the equilibrium real exchange rate and the degree of exchange-rate misalignment. Estimating the degree of exchange-rate misalignment remains one of the most challenging empirical problems in an open economy. The basic problem is that the value of the real exchange rate is not observable. Standard theory tells us, however, that the equilibrium real exchange rate is a function of observable macroeconomic variables and that the actual real exchange rate approaches the equilibrium rate over time. A recent strand of the empirical literature exploits these observations to develop a single-equation approach to estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate. Drawing on that earlier work, Baffes, Elbadawi, and O'Connell outline an econometric methodology for estimating both the equilibrium real exchange rate and the degree of exchange-rate misalignment. They illustrate the methodology using annual data from Cote d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso. This paper - a product of the Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to investigate the determinants of the real exchange rate.

Single-Equation Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

Virtually all previous narrow money demand studies for the United Kingdom have used seasonally adjusted data for money, prices, and expenditure. This paper develops a constant, data-coherent M1 demand equation for the United Kingdom with seasonally unadjusted data. For that model, we address issues of cointegration, error correction, general­to-specific modeling, dynamic specification, model evaluation and testing, parameter constancy, and exogeneity. We also establish theoretical and empirical relationships between seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data, and so between models using those data. Finally, we derive and implement encompassing tests for comparing models using adjusted data with models using unadjusted data. Unlike the "standard" encompassing framework, variance dominance is not always a necessary condition for encompassing.

Cointegration, seasonality, encompassing, and the demand for money in the United Kingdom

This paper summarizes David Hendry's empirical econometric methodology, unifying discussions in many of his and his co-authors' papers. Then, we describe how Hendry'S suite of computer programs PC-GIVE helps users implement that methodology. Finally, we illustrate that methodology and the programs with three empirical examples: post-war narrow money demand in the United Kingdom, nominal income determination in the United Kingdom from Friedman and Schwartz (1982), and consumers' expenditure in Venezuela. These examples help clarify the methodology'S central concepts, which include cointegration, error-correction, general-to-simple modelling, dynamic specification, model evaluation and testing, parameter constancy, and exogeneity.

/pdf/pc-give-and-david-hendry-s-econometric-methodology-5dufyn5t0w.pdf

PC-GIVE and David Hendry's Econometric Methodology

This paper summarizes David Hendry's empirical econometric methodology, unifying discussions in many of his and his co-authors' papers. Then, we describe how Hendry's suite of computer programs PC-GIVE helps users implement that methodology. Finally, we illustrate that methodology and the programs with three empirical examples: post­war narrow money demand in the United Kingdom, nominal income determination in the United Kingdom from Friedman and Schwartz (1982), and consumers' expenditure in Venezuela. These examples help clarify the methodology's central concepts, which include cointegration, error-correction, general-to-simple modeling, dynamic specification, model evaluation and testing, parameter constancy, and exogeneity.

PC-give and David Hendry's econometric methodology

/pdf/cointegration-seasonality-encompassing-and-the-demand-for-48j7aa2v85.pdf

Hong-Anh Tran

Papers

Cointegration, seasonality, encompassing, and the demand for money in the United Kingdom

PC-GIVE and David Hendry's Econometric Methodology

PC-give and David Hendry's econometric methodology

Cointegration, Seasonality, Encompassing, and the Demand for Money in the United Kingdom