Showing papers in "Social Science Research Network in 1993"

Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates

Abstract: We offer simple quasi-likelihood methods for estimating regression models with a fractional dependent variable and for performing asymptotically valid inference. Compared with log-odds type procedures, there is no difficulty in recovering the regression function for the fractional variable, and there is no need to use ad hoc transformations to handle data at the extreme values of zero and one. We also offer some new, simple specification tests by nesting the logit or probit function in a more general functional form. We apply these methods to a data set of employee participation rates in 401(k) pension plans.

Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity

Abstract: Two different models - one based on local geographical externalities and the other on the variety of only locally available intermediate services - are shown to give rise to a simple, estimable relation between employment density and productivity. Using data on gross state output for the U.S., we find that agglomeration more than offsets congestion effects in denser areas. While our estimate of the elasticity of productivity with respect to density is small, it explains more than 50% of the observed state productivity differences, given the large differences in density.

International Comparisons of Educational Attainment

Abstract: Many theories of economic growth stress the role of human capital in the form of education, but empirical studies have been hampered by inadequate data. We describe a data set on educational attainment that we have constructed for 129 countries over five-year periods from 1960-1985. We use census/survey information to fill over 40% of the cells, and we use school enrollment figures in a perpetual-inventory framework to fill the remainder. The data refer to male and female attainment of the adult population at four levels: no-schooling. primary. secondary, and higher. We also provide a rough breakdown into incomplete and complete attainment at the three levels of schooling. We then take account of cross-country variations in the durations of schooling at each level to provide figures on total years of attainment.

Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation

Abstract: This paper describes the empirical regularities relating fiscal policy variables, the level of development and the rate of growth. We employ historical data, recent cross-section data, and newly constructed public investment series. Our main findings are: (i) there is a strong association between the development level and the fiscal structure: poor countries rely heavily on international trade taxes, while income taxes are only important in developed economies; (ii) fiscal policy is influenced by the scale of the economy, measured by its population; (iii) investment in transport and communication is consistently correlated with growth while the effects of taxation are difficult to isolate empirically.

The Impact of Prior Entrepreneurial Exposure on Perceptions of New Venture Feasibility and Desirability

Abstract: Tests Shapero's intentions-based model of new venture initiation. This model assumes that the intent to start a new business is the result of perceived desirability, feasibility, and the individual's propensity to act upon opportunities. Entrepreneurial intention is defined as the commitment to starting a new business. An understanding of these intentions is important as it helps to identify key characteristics for new firms. The decision to start a new business requires the perception that starting a new business is credible and some type of precipitating event. Data used in the analysis were collected from 126 upper-division university business students – 75 males and 51 females. The data itself show perception measures and propensity to act have a significant correlation with entrepreneurial intentions. Breadth of experience has a strong correlation to perceived feasibility while positiveness of experience is strongly correlated with perceived desirability. Results demonstrate support for Shapero's model and further indicate that measures of prior entrepreneurial exposure can be added. Implications of this analysis for researchers, training entrepreneurs, and practitioners are discussed. (SRD)

Using Geographic Variation in College Proximity to Estimate the Return to Schooling

Abstract: A convincing analysis of the causal link between schooling and earnings requires an exogenous source of variation in education outcomes. This paper explores the use of college proximity as an exogenous determinant of schooling. Analysis of the NLS Young Men Cohort reveals that men who grew up in local labor markets with a nearby college have significantly higher education and earnings than other men. The education and earnings gains are concentrated among men with poorly-educated parents -- men who would otherwise stop schooling at relatively low levels. When college proximity is taken as an exogenous determinant of schooling the implied instrumental variables estimates of the return to schooling are 25-60% higher than conventional ordinary least squares estimates. Since the effect of a nearby college on schooling attainment varies by family background it is possible to test whether college proximity is a legitimately exogenous determinant of schooling. The results affirm that marginal returns to education among children of less-educated parents are as high and perhaps much higher than the rates of return estimated by conventional methods.

The Gender Gap, Fertility and Growth

Abstract: This paper examines a novel mechanism linking fertility and growth. Household fertility is determined by relative wages of women and men. Increasing women's wages reduces fertility by raising the cost of children relatively more than household income. Lower fertility raises the level of capital per worker which in turn, since capital is more complementary to women's labor input than men's, raises women's relative wages. This positive feedback leads to the possibility of multiple steady-state equilibria. Countries with low initial capital may converge to a development trap with high fertility, low capital, and low relative wages for women.

Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk

Abstract: For many years, stock market analysts have argued that value strategies outperform the market. These value strategies call for buying stocks that have low prices relative to earnings, dividends, book assets, or other measures of fundamental value. While there is some agreement that value strategies produce higher returns, the interpretation of why they do so is more controversial. This paper provides evidence that value strategies yield higher returns because these strategies exploit the mistakes of the typical investor and not because these strategies are fundamentally riskier.

Does Electoral Accountability Affect Economic Policy Choices? Evidence from Gubernatorial Term Limits

Abstract: This paper uses data from U.S. states to investigate whether electoral accountability affects economic policy choices. We set up a model in which the possibility of being re-elected may curtail opportunistic behavior by incumbent governors. We find that facing a binding term limit affects choices on taxes, expenditures, state minimum wages and mandates on workers' compensation. Such effects are found also to vary with the party affiliation of the incumbent. The Democratic party also appears to suffer at the polls following the term of a lame-duck, Democratic incumbent.

The Politics of Free Trade Agreements

Abstract: Suppose that an opportunity arises for two countries to negotiate a free trade agreement (FTA). Will an FTA between these countries be politically viable? And if so, what form will it take? We address these questions using a political-economy framework that emphasizes the interaction between industry special interest groups and an incumbent government. We describe the economic conditions necessary for an FTA to be an equilibrium outcome, both for the case when the agreement must cover all bilateral trade and when a few, politically sensitive sectors can be excluded from the agreement.

A Unified Model of Investment Under Uncertainty

Abstract: This paper extends the theory of investment under uncertainty to incorporate fixed costs of investment, a wedge between the purchase price and sale price of capital, and potential irreversibility of investment. In this extended framework, investment is a non-decreasing function of q, the shadow price of installed capital. There are potentially three investment regimes, which depend on the value of q relative to two critical values. For values of q above the upper critical value, investment is positive and is an increasing function of q, as is standard in the theory branch of the adjustment cost literature. For intermediate values of q, between two critical values, investment is zero. Although this regime features prominently in the irreversibility literature, it is largely ignored in the adjustment cost literature. Finally, if q is below the lower critical value, gross investment is negative, a possibility that is ruled out by assumption in the irreversibility of literature. In general, however, the shadow price q is not directly observable, so we present two examples relating q to observable varieties.

Labor Market Returns to Two- and Four-Year Colleges: Is a Credit a Credit and Do Degrees Matter?

Abstract: In CPS data, the 20% of the civilian labor force with 1-3 years of college earn 15% more than high school graduates. We use data from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of1972 which includes postsecondary transcript data and the NLSY to study the distinct returns to 2-year and 4-year college attendance and degree completion. Controlling for background and measured ability, wage differentials for both 2-year and 4-year college credits are positive and similar. We find that the average 2-year and 4-year college student earned roughly 5% more than high school graduates for every year of credits completed. Second, average bachelor and associate degree recipients did not earn significantly more than those with similar numbers of college credits and no degree, suggesting that the credentialing effects of these degrees are small. We report similar results from the NLSY and the CPS. We also pursue two IV strategies to identify measurement error and selection bias. First, we use self-reported education as an instrument for transcript reported education. Second, we use public tuition and distance from the closest 2-year and 4-year colleges as instruments, which we take as orthogonal to schooling measurement error and other unobserved characteristics of college students. We find that in our data the two biases roughly cancel each other, suggesting that the results above are, if anything, understated.

Framing, Probability Distortions, and Insurance Decisions

Abstract: A series of studies examines whether certain biases in probability assessments and perceptions of loss, previously found in experimental studies, affect consumers' decisions about insurance. Framing manipulations lead the consumers studied here to make hypothetical insurance-purchase choices that violate basic laws of probability and value. Subjects exhibit distortions in their perception of risk and framing effects in evaluating premiums and benefits. Illustrations from insurance markets suggest that the same effects occur when consumers make actual insurance purchases.

Innovation, Competition, and Industry Structure

Abstract: Why some firms die while others survive? Survival has long been recognized as a basic goal for a manufacturing firm. At least in the long term, survival should be related to various measures of performance, such as market share and profitability. Advocates of population ecology have argued that life chances of organizations are affected by population density at the time of founding. According to this argument, organizations founded during periods of intense competition will have persistently higher age-specific rates of mortality than those founded during periods with lower numbers of competitors. At least for the case of manufacturing firms, there may be more profound causes than competitive turmoil that explain a firm's survival chances. These have to do with the evolution of technology in an industry. Population density may only be a reflection of underlying driving forces based on technological change that determine the form and level of competition, the attractiveness of entry, and ultimately the structure of an industry.

Modeling Loss Aversion and Reference Dependence Effects on Brand Choice

Abstract: Based upon a recently developed multiattribute generalization of prospect theory's value function (Tversky and Kahneman 1991), we argue that consumer choice is influenced by the position of brands relative to multiattribute reference points, and that consumers weigh losses from a reference point more than equivalent sized gains (loss aversion). We sketch implications of this model for understanding brand choice. We develop a multinomial logit formulation of a reference-dependent choice model, calibrating it using scanner data. In addition to providing better fit in both estimation and forecast periods than a standard multinomial logit model, the model's coefficients demonstrate significant loss aversion, as hypothesized. We also discuss the implications of a reference-dependent view of consumer choice for modeling brand choice, demonstrate that loss aversion can account for asymmetric responses to changes in product characteristics, and examine other implications for competitive strategy.

Beauty and the Labor Market

Abstract: We develop a theory of sorting across occupations based on looks and derive its implications for testing for the source of earnings differentials related to looks. These differentials are examined using the 1977 Quality of Employment, the 1971 Quality of American Life, and the 1981 Canadian Quality of Life surveys, all of which contain interviewers' ratings of the respondents' physical appearance. Holding constant demographic and labor-market characteristics, plain people earn less than people of average looks, who earn less than the good-looking. The penalty for plainness is 5 to 10 percent, slightly larger than the premium for beauty. The effects are slightly larger for men than women; but unattractive women are less likely than others to participate in the labor force and are more likely to be married to men with unexpectedly low human capital. Better-looking people sort into occupations where beauty is likely to be more productive; but the impact of individuals' looks on their earnings is mostly independent of occupation.

Changes in the Demand for Skilled Labor within U.S. Manufacturing Industries: Evidence from the Annual Survey of Manufacturing

Abstract: This paper investigates the shift in demand towards skilled labor in U.S. manufacturing. Between 1979 and 1989. employment of production workers in manufacturing dropped by 2.2 mil1ion or 15 percent while employment of non-production workers rose by 3 percent. A decomposition of changing employment patterns in each of 450 industries reveals that the defense buildup and trade deficits can account for only a small part of the shift in demand towards non-production workers. We conclude that production labor-saving technological change is the most likely explanation for the shift in demand towards non-production workers since the shift is mostly due to changes in labor demand within industries rather than reallocation of employment towards industries with higher shares of skilled labor. Strong correlations between within-industry skil1 upgrading and both increased investment in computers on the one hand and increased investment in R&D on the other provide further evidence for production labor saving technological change.

Growth Effects of Flat-Rate Taxes

Abstract: Recent estimates of the potential growth effects of tax reform vary widely, ranging from zero (Lucas 1990) to eight percentage points (Jones, Manuelli, and Rossi 1993). Using an endogenous growth model, we assess which model features and parameter values are important for determining the quantitative impact of tax reform. We find that the critical parameters are factor shares, depreciation rates, the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, and the elasticity of labor supply. The elasticities of substitution in production, on the other hand, are relatively unimportant. The quantitative estimates in several recent papers are compared with each other and with some of the evidence from U.S. experience.

Innovations and Technological Spillovers

Abstract: In this paper we analyze the evidence from a large number of studies on three specific questions pertaining to RD the social rates of return of RD the channels of transmissions have been exports, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises' research operations, the latter being the most dynamic agents of technology transfer. With the further globalization of business activities, international technology transfers will be a major source of new R&D spillovers.

Monetary Policy and Bank Lending

Abstract: This paper surveys recent work that relates to the "lending" view of monetary policy transmission. It has three main goals: 1) to explain why it is important to distinguish between the lending and "money" views of policy transmission; 2) to outline the microeconomic conditions that are needed to generate a lending channel; and 3) to review the empirical evidence that bears on the lending view.

A Permanent and Transitory Component Model of Stock Return Volatility

Abstract: In this paper, we develop a statistical unobserved component model for stock market volatility. The volatility, which is measured by the conditional variance of stock returns, is decomposed into a permanent or long-run and a transitory or short-run component. The transitory component is mean- reverting towards the trend component. Analysis of US and Japanese stock data supports the decomposition and reinforce the common finding in the literature of persistent stock return volatility. The component model is successful in describing the effect of the "October 87 Crash" on stock volatility changes. We hypothesize that the leverage effect as discussed in Black (1976) and Christie (1982) is a short- run phenomenon in the stock market and there is no asymmetric structure of volatility in the long run. The data strongly supports this hypothesis for US and Japanese stock indices.

International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence

Abstract: We review recent work comparing properties of international business cycles with those of dynamic general equilibrium models, emphasizing two discrepancies between theory and data that we refer to as anomalies. The first is the consumption/output/productivity anomaly: in the data we generally find that the correlation across countries of output fluctuations is larger than the analogous consumption and productivity correlations. In theoretical economies we find, for a wide range of parameter values, that the consumption correlation exceeds the productivity and output correlations. The second anomaly concerns relative price movements: the standard deviation of the terms of trade is considerably larger in the data than it is in theoretical economies. We speculate on changes in theoretical structure that might bring theory and data closer together.

Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals

Abstract: Fixed exchange rates are less volatile than floating rates. But the volatility of macroeconomic variables such as money and output does not change very much across exchange rate regimes. This suggests that exchange rate models based only on macroeconomic fundamentals are unlikely to be very successful. It also suggests that there is no clear tradeoff between reduced exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic stability.

A Simple Theory of Multinational Corporations and Trade with a Trade-Off between Proximity and Concentration

Abstract: This paper develops a two-sector, two-country model, where firms in a differentiated products sector choose between exporting and multinational expansion as alternative modes of foreign market penetration, based on a trade-off between proximity and concentration advantages. The differentiated sector is characterized by multi-stage production, with increasing returns at the corporate level associated with some activity such as R&D, scale economies at the plant level, and a variable transport cost that rises with distance. A pure multinational equilibrium, where two-way horizontal expansion across borders completely supplants two-way trade in differentiated products, is possible even in the absence of factor proportion differences. It is more likely the greater are transport costs relative to fixed plant costs, and the greater are increasing returns at the corporate level relative to the plant level. The model also establishes conditions for a mixed equilibrium, in which national and multinational firms coexist.

Integration, Specialization, and the Adjustment

Abstract: In the United States, many industries have a Silicon Valley-type geographic localization. In Europe, these same industries often have four or more major centers of production. This difference is presumably the result of the formal and informal trade barriers that have divided the European market. With the growing integration of that market, however, there is the possibility that Europe will develop an American-style economic geography. This paper uses a theoretical model of industrial localization to demonstrate this possibility, and to show the possible transition costs associated with this shift.

Conceptual 'Stretching' Revisited: Adapting Categories in Comparative Analysis

Abstract: When scholars extend their models and hypotheses to encompass additional cases, they commonly need to adapt their analytic categories to fit the new contexts. Giovanni Sartori's work on conceptual "traveling" and conceptual "stretching" provides helpful guidance in addressing this fundamental task of comparative analysis. Yet Sartori's framework draws upon what may be called classical categorization, which views the relation among categories in terms of a taxonomic hierarchy, with each category having clear boundaries and defining properties shared by all members. We examine the challenge to this framework presented by two types of nonclassical categories: family resemblances and radial categories. With such categories, the overly strict application of a classical framework can lead to abandoning to category prematurely or to modifying it inappropriately. We discuss solutions to these problems, using examples of how scholars have adapted their categories in comparative research on democracy and authoritarianism.

Equal Opportunity Law and the Construction of Internal Labor Markets

Abstract: Internal labor markets have been explained with efficiency and control arguments; however, retrospective event-history data from 279 organizations suggest that federal Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO) law was the force behind the spread of formal promotion mechanisms after 1964. The findings highlight the way in which American public policy, with its broad outcome-oriented guidelines for organizations, stimulates managers to experiment with compliance mechanisms with an eye to judicial sanction. In response to EEO legislation and case law, personnel managers devised and diffused employment practices that treat all classes of workers as ambitious and achievement oriented in the process of formalizing and rationalizing promotion decisions.

Saving and Growth: A Reinterpretation

Abstract: We examine the relationship between income growth and saving using both cross-country and household data. At the aggregate level, we find that growth Granger causes saving, but that saving does not Granger cause growth. Using household data, we find that households with predictably higher income growth save more than households with predictably low growth. We argue that standard Permanent Income models of consumption cannot explain these findings, but that a model of consumption with habit formation may. The positive effect of growth on saving implies that previous estimates of the effect of saving on growth may be overstated.

Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market

Abstract: This paper introduces a three-part transactions dataset to test various microstructural hypotheses about the spot foreign exchange market. In particular, we test for effects of trading volume on quoted prices through the two channels stressed in the literature: the information channel and the inventory-control channel. We find that trades have both a strong information effect and a strong inventory-control effect, providing support for both strands of microstructure theory. The bulk of equity-market studies also find an information effect; however, these studies typically interpret this as evidence of inside information. Since there are no insiders in the foreign exchange market, this finding suggests a broader conception of the information environment, at least in this context.

Employment and Earnings

Abstract: This study is a collection of papers which discuss the social effects of policy reform. Each author covers a specific structural area of adjustment, and provides a model for planning and analyses. Policy reform entails major adjustments in all sectors of society. The 1980s found many countries in Latin America and Africa beginning structural adjustment policies in response to slumping economies. As these macroeconomic reforms were implemented, poverty and social conditions continued to deteriorate in many countries. This trend showed the importance of integrating social dimensions into the design of adjustment programs. These studies discuss the impacts of reform on the social dimensions of poverty, employment and earnings, migrations, human resources efforts in education and health, fertility, women and smallholders. An extensive bibliography is included