Terrestrial net primary production (NPP) quantifies the amount of atmospheric carbon fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. Previous studies have shown that climate constraints were relaxing with increasing temperature and solar radiation, allowing an upward trend in NPP from 1982 through 1999. The past decade (2000 to 2009) has been the warmest since instrumental measurements began, which could imply continued increases in NPP; however, our estimates suggest a reduction in the global NPP of 0.55 petagrams of carbon. Large-scale droughts have reduced regional NPP, and a drying trend in the Southern Hemisphere has decreased NPP in that area, counteracting the increased NPP over the Northern Hemisphere. A continued decline in NPP would not only weaken the terrestrial carbon sink, but it would also intensify future competition between food demand and proposed biofuel production.

Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 Through 2009

This memorandum documents the updates implemented in EPA’s 2020 Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks (GHGI) for gathering and boosting (G&B) stations. Additional considerations for G&B were previously discussed in memoranda released November 2019 (Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2018: Updates Under Consideration for Natural Gas Gathering & Boosting Station Emissions),1 October 2018 (Inventory of U.S. GHG Emissions and Sinks 1990-2017: Updates Under Consideration for Natural Gas Gathering & Boosting Emissions),2 and April 2019 (Inventory of U.S. GHG Emissions and Sinks 1990-2017: Updates to Natural Gas Gathering & Boosting Pipeline Emissions).3

Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

We upscaled FLUXNET observations of carbon dioxide, water, and energy fluxes to the global scale using the machine learning technique, model tree ensembles (MTE). We trained MTE to predict site-level gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent energy (LE), and sensible heat (H) based on remote sensing indices, climate and meteorological data, and information on land use. We applied the trained MTEs to generate global flux fields at a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees spatial resolution and a monthly temporal resolution from 1982 to 2008. Cross-validation analyses revealed good performance of MTE in predicting among-site flux variability with modeling efficiencies (MEf) between 0.64 and 0.84, except for NEE (MEf = 0.32). Performance was also good for predicting seasonal patterns (MEf between 0.84 and 0.89, except for NEE (0.64)). By comparison, predictions of monthly anomalies were not as strong (MEf between 0.29 and 0.52). Improved accounting of disturbance and lagged environmental effects, along with improved characterization of errors in the training data set, would contribute most to further reducing uncertainties. Our global estimates of LE (158 +/- 7 J x 10(18) yr(-1)), H (164 +/- 15 J x 10(18) yr(-1)), and GPP (119 +/- 6 Pg C yr(-1)) were similar to independent estimates. Our global TER estimate (96 +/- 6 Pg C yr(-1)) was likely underestimated by 5-10%. Hot spot regions of interannual variability in carbon fluxes occurred in semiarid to semihumid regions and were controlled by moisture supply. Overall, GPP was more important to interannual variability in NEE than TER. Our empirically derived fluxes may be used for calibration and evaluation of land surface process models and for exploratory and diagnostic assessments of the biosphere.

Global patterns of land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide, latent heat, and sensible heat derived from eddy covariance, satellite, and meteorological observations

A brief history of development of the 1985 Hargreaves equation and its comparison to evapotranspiration (ET) predicted by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Penman-Monteith method are described to provide background and information helpful in selecting an appropriate reference ET equation under various data situations. Early efforts in irrigation water requirement computations in California and other arid and semiarid regions required the development of simplified ET equations for use with limited weather data. Several initial efforts were directed towards improving the usefulness of pan evaporation for estimating irrigation water requirements. Similarity with climates of other countries allowed developments in California to be extended overseas. Criticism of empirical methods by H. L. Penman and others encouraged the search for a robust and practical method that was based on readily available climatic data for computing potential evapotranspiration or reference crop evapot...

/pdf/history-and-evaluation-of-hargreaves-evapotranspiration-2vsh1z92yk.pdf

History and Evaluation of Hargreaves Evapotranspiration Equation

http://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/pubs/pdf/pub3998.pdf

Modeling and measuring the effects of disturbance history and climate on carbon and water budgets in evergreen needleleaf forests

http://directory.umm.ac.id/Data%20Elmu/jurnal/A/Agricultural%20%26%20Forest%20Meterology/Vol104Issue4Sept2000/2857.pdf

Simultaneous estimation of daily solar radiation and humidity from observed temperature and precipitation: an application over complex terrain in Austria.

Tree mortality is an important process in forest ecosystems, frequently hypothesized to be highly climate sensitive. Yet, tree death remains one of the least understood processes of forest dynamics. Recently, changes in tree mortality have been observed in forests around the globe, which could profoundly affect ecosystem functioning and services provisioning to society. We describe continental-scale patterns of recent tree mortality from the only consistent pan-European forest monitoring network, identifying recent mortality hotspots in southern and northern Europe. Analyzing 925,462 annual observations of 235,895 trees between 2000 and 2012, we determine the influence of climate variability and tree age on interannual variation in tree mortality using Cox proportional hazard models. Warm summers as well as high seasonal variability in precipitation increased the likelihood of tree death. However, our data also suggest that reduced cold-induced mortality could compensate increased mortality related to peak temperatures in a warming climate. Besides climate variability, age was an important driver of tree mortality, with individual mortality probability decreasing with age over the first century of a trees life. A considerable portion of the observed variation in tree mortality could be explained by satellite-derived net primary productivity, suggesting that widely available remote sensing products can be used as an early warning indicator of widespread tree mortality. Our findings advance the understanding of patterns of large-scale tree mortality by demonstrating the influence of seasonal and diurnal climate variation, and highlight the potential of state-of-the-art remote sensing to anticipate an increased likelihood of tree mortality in space and time.

Climate variability drives recent tree mortality in Europe.

A crown ratio model for Austrian forests

Concepts within Tree Growth Modeling.- End User Needs and Requirements.- Standardizing and Categorizing Tree Growth Models.- Description of Tree Growth Models Used.- Modeling Forest Regeneration.- Harvesting Rules and Modules for Predicting Commercial Timber Assortments.- Applications of Tree Growth Modeling in Decision Support for Sustainable Forest Management.- Evaluating Individual Tree Growth Models.- Modeling Regeneration in Even and Uneven-Aged Mixed Species Forests.- Evaluating Management Regimes and their Impact on Commercial Timber Supply Using an Individual-Tree Growth Model and Scenario Analysis.- A Decision Support System for Multi-Criteria Forest Estate Planning, Integrating a Forest Growth Simulator, Fuzzy-Inference Techniques and a Heuristic Optimisation Approach.- The Use of Tree Models for Silvicultural Decision Making.- The Use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Multi-Objective Optimisation in Forest Planning.- Modeling Cork Oak Production in Portugal.- Implementing Tree Growth Models in Slovakia.- Conversion of Norway Spruce: A Case Study in Denmark Based on Silvicultural Scenario Modeling.- Modeling the Growth of Quercus frainetto in Greece.- Closing.

Hubert Hasenauer

Papers

Simultaneous estimation of daily solar radiation and humidity from observed temperature and precipitation: an application over complex terrain in Austria.

Climate variability drives recent tree mortality in Europe.

A crown ratio model for Austrian forests

Sustainable forest management : growth models for Europe

Dimensional relationships of open-grown trees in Austria