This chapter assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system. Changes are expressed with respect to a baseline period of 1986-2005, unless otherwise stated.

Chapter 12 - Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility

We present Bedmap2, a new suite of gridded products describing surface elevation, ice-thickness and the seafloor and subglacial bed elevation of the Antarctic south of 60° S. We derived these products using data from a variety of sources, including many substantial surveys completed since the original Bedmap compilation (Bedmap1) in 2001. In particular, the Bedmap2 ice thickness grid is made from 25 million measurements, over two orders of magnitude more than were used in Bedmap1. In most parts of Antarctica the subglacial landscape is visible in much greater detail than was previously available and the improved data-coverage has in many areas revealed the full scale of mountain ranges, valleys, basins and troughs, only fragments of which were previously indicated in local surveys. The derived statistics for Bedmap2 show that the volume of ice contained in the Antarctic ice sheet (27 million km3) and its potential contribution to sea-level rise (58 m) are similar to those of Bedmap1, but the mean thickness of the ice sheet is 4.6% greater, the mean depth of the bed beneath the grounded ice sheet is 72 m lower and the area of ice sheet grounded on bed below sea level is increased by 10%. The Bedmap2 compilation highlights several areas beneath the ice sheet where the bed elevation is substantially lower than the deepest bed indicated by Bedmap1. These products, along with grids of data coverage and uncertainty, provide new opportunities for detailed modelling of the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheets.

/pdf/bedmap2-improved-ice-bed-surface-and-thickness-datasets-for-23r3l5bd57.pdf

Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica

/pdf/reconciling-plate-tectonic-reconstructions-of-alpine-tethys-1do3i5vm2t.pdf

Reconciling plate-tectonic reconstructions of Alpine Tethys with the geological–geophysical record of spreading and subduction in the Alps

Measurements of ice thickness on the Antarctic ice sheet collected during surveys undertaken over the past 50 years have been brought together into a single database. From these data, a seamless suite of digital topographic models have been compiled for Antarctica and its surrounding ocean. This includes grids of ice sheet thickness over the grounded ice sheet and ice shelves, water column thickness beneath the floating ice shelves, bed elevation beneath the grounded ice sheet, and bathymetry to 60°S, including the sub-ice-shelf cavities. These grids are consistent with a recent high-resolution surface elevation model of Antarctica. While the digital models have a nominal spatial resolution of 5 km, such high resolution is justified by the original data density only over a few parts of the ice sheet. The suite does, however, provide an unparalleled vision of the geosphere beneath the ice sheet and a more reliable basis for ice sheet modeling than earlier maps. The total volume of the Antarctic ice sheet calculated from the BEDMAP grid is 25.4 million km3, and the total sea level equivalent, derived from the amount of ice contained within the grounded ice sheet, is 57 m, comprising 52 m from the East Antarctic ice sheet and 5 m from the West Antarctic ice sheet, slightly less than earlier estimates. The gridded data sets can be obtained from the authors.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2000JB900449

BEDMAP: a new ice thickness and subglacial topographic model of Antarctica

As continental ice from Antarctica reaches the grounding line and begins to float, its underside melts into the ocean. Results obtained with satellite radar interferometry reveal that bottom melt rates experienced by large outlet glaciers near their grounding lines are far higher than generally assumed. The melting rate is positively correlated with thermal forcing, increasing by 1 meter per year for each 0.1°C rise in ocean temperature. Where deep water has direct access to grounding lines, glaciers and ice shelves are vulnerable to ongoing increases in ocean temperature.

/pdf/rapid-bottom-melting-widespread-near-antarctic-ice-sheet-195vczq4dl.pdf

Rapid Bottom Melting Widespread near Antarctic Ice Sheet Grounding Lines

The locations and details of 145 Antarctic subglacial lakes are presented. The inventory is based on a former catalogue of lake-type features, which has been subsequently reanalysed, and on the results from three additional datasets. The first is from Italian radio-echo sounding (RES) of the Dome C region of East Antarctica, from which 14 new lakes are identified. These data also show that, in a number of occasions, multiple lake-type reflectors thought previously to be individual lakes are in fact reflections from the same relatively large lake. This reduces the former total of lake-type reflectors by six, but also adds a significant level of information to these particular lakes. The second dataset is from a Russian survey of the Dome A and Dome F regions of East Antarctica, which provides evidence of 18 new lakes and extends the coverage of the inventory considerably. The third dataset comprises three airborne RES surveys undertaken by the US in East Antarctica over the last five years, from which forty three new lakes have been identified. Reference to information on Lake Vostok, from Italian and US surveys taken in the last few years, is now included. Received 1 September 2004, accepted 8 February 2005

/pdf/a-revised-inventory-of-antarctic-subglacial-lakes-r9fses0zfs.pdf

A revised inventory of Antarctic subglacial lakes

Rifted(?) crust at the East Antarctic Craton margin: Gravity and magnetic interpretation along a traverse across the Wilkes Subglacial Basin region

Laboratory investigations have been carried out on one- and two-component artificial sand samples in order to estimate the relations between formation factor (F), porosity (φ), and permeability (K). The measurements were carried out by varying grain size and size distribution while keeping constant shape and packing; in our experimental conditions the measured formation factor approximated the intrinsic formation factor.



The relationship between formation factor and porosity (F = a ·φ−m) is independent of grain size and size distribution; the coefficient values are: a = 1·15, m = 1·42.



The relationship between permeability and formation factor has the general form K = r · F−s, where s is constant, and r is a function of the mean size d of the small component of the samples.



The K-F relation can be established only if d is constant; in these conditions the relationship is an inverse one, and the negative trend is related to the variations in size distribution.

Experimental Study of Some Hydrogeophysical Properties of Unconsolidated Porous Media

Determination of the surface and bed topography at Dome C, East Antarctica

A series of 8 new seismic refraction profiles were computed as extensions of the borehole controlled reflection profiles of the Po plain into the northern Apennines and the Ligurian Alps. They help to more clearly define the subsurface structure of this intricate ‘Ligurian knot’. In particular, it has been possible to identify a number of high velocity bodies, and they may be correlated with such geological entities as the Adriatic Mesozoic, ophiolites of the Apenninic Liguride nappes, and ophiolites or Mesozoic carbonates underlying the Antola flysch in the Alpine part of the knot. When combining the refraction and reflection lines, these bodies appear to be bounded by important dislocation surfaces, such as the Padanide sole thrust (Plio-Pleistocene), the Villalvernia Varzi line (Oligo-Miocene), the Ottone-Levanto line (Oligo-Miocene), and the Volpedo-Valle Salimbene fault (Oligo-Miocene; reactivated as a transfer fault in the Plio-Pleistocene). The 3D geometry may be interpreted in terms of regional kinematics and is compatible with a model that envisages an Oligo-Early Miocene NW translation of the Adriatic indenter, coupled with collapse in the Provencal-Ligurian sea and rotation of the Sardinia-Liguria complex into the roll-back of the Adriatic subduction zone. The refraction interpretations, extending to a depth of 15 km, are supplemented by data on the Moho configuration obtained for the European Geotraverse. The Moho appears to be dissected into a series of patches which may be interpreted in terms of the shallow crustal configuration and its history. In particular, the deepest patch appears to be terminated by the Volpedo-Valle Salimbene fault, which consequently would displace the entire crust.

Ignazio E. Tabacco

Papers

A revised inventory of Antarctic subglacial lakes

Rifted(?) crust at the East Antarctic Craton margin: Gravity and magnetic interpretation along a traverse across the Wilkes Subglacial Basin region

Experimental Study of Some Hydrogeophysical Properties of Unconsolidated Porous Media

Determination of the surface and bed topography at Dome C, East Antarctica

The collisional knot in Liguria