With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand, and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Spec...

Human motion trajectory prediction: a survey:

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.

Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

Provably safe motion planning for automated road vehicles must ensure that planned motions do not result in a collision with other traffic participants. This is a major challenge in autonomous driving, since the future behavior of other traffic participants is not known and since traffic participants are often hidden due to occlusions. In this work, we propose a formal set-based prediction that contains all acceptable future behaviors of both detected and potentially hidden traffic participants. Based on formalized traffic rules and nondeterministic motion models, we perform reachability analysis to predict the set of possible occupancies and velocities of vehicles, pedestrians, and cyclists. Real-world experiments with a test vehicle in various traffic situations demonstrate the applicability and real-time capability of our over-approximative prediction for both online verification and fail-safe trajectory planning. Even in congested, complex traffic scenarios, our forecasting approach enables self-driving vehicles to never cause accidents.

/pdf/set-based-prediction-of-traffic-participants-considering-26piry1sgj.pdf

Set-Based Prediction of Traffic Participants Considering Occlusions and Traffic Rules

For motion planning and control of autonomous vehicles to be proactive and safe, pedestrians' and other road users' motions must be considered. In this paper, we present a vehicle motion planning and control framework, based on Model Predictive Control, accounting for moving obstacles. Measured pedestrian states are fed into a prediction layer which translates each pedestrians' predicted motion into constraints for the MPC problem. Simulations and experimental validation were performed with simulated crossing pedestrians to show the performance of the framework. Experimental results show that the controller is stable even under significant input delays, while still maintaining very low computational times. In addition, real pedestrian data was used to further validate the developed framework in simulations.

/pdf/real-time-constrained-trajectory-planning-and-vehicle-4e8awy85d9.pdf

Real-Time Constrained Trajectory Planning and Vehicle Control for Proactive Autonomous Driving With Road Users

Autonomous driving has achieved significant progress in recent years, but autonomous cars are still unable to tackle high-risk situations where a potential accident is likely. In such near-accident scenarios, even a minor change in the vehicle's actions may result in drastically different consequences. To avoid unsafe actions in near-accident scenarios, we need to fully explore the environment. However, reinforcement learning (RL) and imitation learning (IL), two widely-used policy learning methods, cannot model rapid phase transitions and are not scalable to fully cover all the states. To address driving in near-accident scenarios, we propose a hierarchical reinforcement and imitation learning (H-ReIL) approach that consists of low-level policies learned by IL for discrete driving modes, and a high-level policy learned by RL that switches between different driving modes. Our approach exploits the advantages of both IL and RL by integrating them into a unified learning framework. Experimental results and user studies suggest our approach can achieve higher efficiency and safety compared to other methods. Analyses of the policies demonstrate our high-level policy appropriately switches between different low-level policies in near-accident driving situations.

http://www.roboticsproceedings.org/rss16/p039.pdf

Reinforcement Learning based Control of Imitative Policies for Near-Accident Driving

Motion planning and control algorithms for autonomous vehicles need to be safe, and consider future movements of other road users to ensure collision-free trajectories. In this letter, we present a control scheme based on Model Predictive Control (MPC) with robust constraint satisfaction where the constraint uncertainty, stemming from the road users’ behavior, is multimodal. The method combines ideas from tube-based and scenario-based MPC strategies in order to approximate the expected cost and to guarantee robust state and input constraint satisfaction. In particular, we design a feedback policy that is a function of the disturbance mode and allows the controller to take less conservative actions. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is illustrated through two numerical simulations, where we compare it against a standard robust MPC formulation.

/pdf/a-robust-scenario-mpc-approach-for-uncertain-multi-modal-2p904rq5wu.pdf

A Robust Scenario MPC Approach for Uncertain Multi-Modal Obstacles

We present a mathematical model to predict pedestrian motion over a finite horizon, intended for use in collision avoidance algorithms for autonomous driving. The model is based on a road map structure, and assumes a rational pedestrian behavior. We compare our model with the state-of-the art and discuss its accuracy, and limitations, both in simulations and in comparison to real data.

https://research.chalmers.se/publication/510580/file/510580_Fulltext.pdf

A Computationally Efficient Model for Pedestrian Motion Prediction

In this paper, we propose a decision making algorithm intended for automated vehicles that negotiate with other possibly non-automated vehicles in intersections. The decision algorithm is separated into two parts: a high-level decision module based on reinforcement learning, and a low-level planning module based on model predictive control. Traffic is simulated with numerous predefined driver behaviors and intentions, and the performance of the proposed decision algorithm was evaluated against another controller. The results show that the proposed decision algorithm yields shorter training episodes and an increased performance in success rate compared to the other controller.

Ivo Batkovic

Papers

Real-Time Constrained Trajectory Planning and Vehicle Control for Proactive Autonomous Driving With Road Users

A Robust Scenario MPC Approach for Uncertain Multi-Modal Obstacles

A Computationally Efficient Model for Pedestrian Motion Prediction

Learning When to Drive in Intersections by Combining Reinforcement Learning and Model Predictive Control

A Computationally Efficient Model for Pedestrian Motion Prediction