Statistics for Spatial Data.

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Modern Applied Statistics With S

In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

/pdf/climate-change-2007-impacts-adaptation-and-vulnerability-31xc1cf4d3.pdf

Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

Effects of the pathogenic fungus Melampsorella caryophyllacearum on radial growth of Abies alba Long-term damages caused by fungi on tree radial-growth and its interaction with climate have been little studied. The incidence and the severity of damage caused by the pathogenic fungus Melampsorella caryophyllacearum on Abies alba in three plots sampled in the Irati forest (Western Pyrenees, Navarra) were quantified. The radial growth of 15 symptomatic trees and 15 asymptomatic trees using dendrochronological techniques were compared. The relationships between monthly climatic data (mean maximum temperature, precipitation) and radial growth of symptomatic and asymptomatic trees were established to determine the different responses of growth to climate between both types of individuals. Radial growth was significantly lower in symptomatic than in asymptomatic trees since the 1980’s when a higher frequency of traumatic resin ducts was detected. Different response functions according to the symptomatology of trees were not observed. The radial growth of A. alba was positively correlated to November mean maximum temperatures of the year prior to growth, and to February and April mean maximum temperatures of the year of growth. Negative relationships between growth and higher September mean maximum temperatures during the year before the tree-ring was formed, and with March and August mean maximum temperatures during the year of tree-ring formation were found. Finally, the radial growth of A. alba was also positively correlated to July precipitation during the year of growth.

http://www.inia.es/gcontrec/pub/SRF15(2)-04_(SANCHEZ_MIRANDA-CAMARERO-SOLLA)_1157613374781.pdf

Efectos del hongo patógeno Melampsorella caryophyllacearum Schroet. sobre el crecimiento radial de Abies alba Mill.

Corrigendum to "Facilitation stabilizes moisture-controlled alpine juniper shrublines in the central Tibetan Plateau" [Global Planet Change 132 (2015) 20-30]

Rising temperatures and aridification, combined with the stressing effect of some hemiparasitic plants such as mistletoes, may contribute to reduce vigour and growth of trees and shrubs leading to dieback and increasing mortality. This has been rarely explored in pioneer shrubs such as junipers, which are assumed to be more drought tolerant than coexisting trees. To test these ideas, we reconstructed radial growth patterns of common junipers (Juniperus communis L.) with different crown cover and infestation degree by dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium oxycedri (DC.) M. Bieb.) in two sites with contrasting aspect and water availability located in north-eastern Spain. We used dendrochronology to study the response of junipers’ radial growth to climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture), an index of drought severity, and mistletoe infestation. Juniper growth was constrained by elevated temperatures and low precipitation leading to drought during the growing season. Infestation by dwarf mistletoe contributed to a short-term growth decline in junipers. The interaction between low summer precipitation and high dwarf mistletoe infestation constrained juniper growth, particularly in the north-oriented wetter site, where hosts presented higher growth rates during wet periods. The negative impact of low summer precipitation on juniper growth overrides the effects due to dwarf mistletoe infestation. Aridification and mistletoe infestation could trigger dieback and mortality of shrubs slowing down successional dynamics and delaying shrub encroachment into former croplands and grasslands.

Dwarf Mistletoe and Drought Contribute to Growth Decline, Dieback and Mortality of Junipers

/pdf/assessment-of-multi-scale-drought-datasets-for-multi-3iji44rjcc.pdf

Assessment of Multi-Scale Drought Datasets for Multi-Disciplinary Applications

Climate warming is expected to enhance tree growth at alpine treelines. A higher growth rate is forecasted as temperatures rise and growth becomes less dependent on the temperature rise. Since radial growth is just one component of treeline dynamics those forecasts do not necessarily apply to treeline elevation or latitude; treelines can shift upward or poleward or remain stable.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.15728

J. Julio Camarero

Papers

Efectos del hongo patógeno Melampsorella caryophyllacearum Schroet. sobre el crecimiento radial de Abies alba Mill.

Corrigendum to "Facilitation stabilizes moisture-controlled alpine juniper shrublines in the central Tibetan Plateau" [Global Planet Change 132 (2015) 20-30]

Dwarf Mistletoe and Drought Contribute to Growth Decline, Dieback and Mortality of Junipers

Assessment of Multi-Scale Drought Datasets for Multi-Disciplinary Applications

Tree growth and treeline responses to temperature: Different questions and concepts.