Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.

Climate change 2001: the scientific basis

Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0)

The Georgia Institute of Technology‐Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model is used to simulate the aerosol optical thickness t for major types of tropospheric aerosols including sulfate, dust, organic carbon (OC), black carbon (BC), and sea salt The GOCART model uses a dust emission algorithm that quantifies the dust source as a function of the degree of topographic depression, and a biomass burning emission source that includes seasonal and interannual variability based on satellite observations Results presented here show that on global average, dust aerosol has the highest t at 500 nm (0051), followed by sulfate (0040), sea salt (0027), OC (0017), and BC (0007) There are large geographical and seasonal variations of t, controlled mainly by emission, transport, and hygroscopic properties of aerosols The model calculated total ts at 500 nm have been compared with the satellite retrieval products from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) over both land and ocean and from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) over the ocean The model reproduces most of the prominent features in the satellite data, with an overall agreement within a factor of 2 over the aerosol source areas and outflow regions While there are clear differences among the satellite products, a major discrepancy between the model and the satellite data is that the model shows a stronger variation of t from source to remote regions Quantitative comparison of model and satellite data is still difficult, due to the large uncertainties involved in deriving the t values by both the model and satellite retrieval, and by the inconsistency in physical and optical parameters used between the model and the satellite retrieval The comparison of monthly averaged model results with the sun photometer network [Aerosol Robotics Network (AERONET)] measurements shows that the model reproduces the seasonal variations at most of the sites, especially the places where biomass burning or dust aerosol dominates

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Tropospheric Aerosol Optical Thickness from the GOCART Model and Comparisons with Satellite and Sun Photometer Measurements

. We describe here the development and evaluation of an Earth system model suitable for centennial-scale climate prediction. The principal new components added to the physical climate model are the terrestrial and ocean ecosystems and gas-phase tropospheric chemistry, along with their coupled interactions. The individual Earth system components are described briefly and the relevant interactions between the components are explained. Because the multiple interactions could lead to unstable feedbacks, we go through a careful process of model spin up to ensure that all components are stable and the interactions balanced. This spun-up configuration is evaluated against observed data for the Earth system components and is generally found to perform very satisfactorily. The reason for the evaluation phase is that the model is to be used for the core climate simulations carried out by the Met Office Hadley Centre for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), so it is essential that addition of the extra complexity does not detract substantially from its climate performance. Localised changes in some specific meteorological variables can be identified, but the impacts on the overall simulation of present day climate are slight. This model is proving valuable both for climate predictions, and for investigating the strengths of biogeochemical feedbacks.

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Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2

Simulation results of global aerosol models have been assembled in the framework of the AeroCom intercomparison exercise. In this paper, we analyze the life cycles of dust, sea salt, sulfate, black carbon and particulate organic matter as simulated by sixteen global aerosol models. The differences among the results (model diversities) for sources and sinks, burdens, particle sizes, water uptakes, and spatial dispersals have been established. These diversities have large consequences for the calculated radiative forcing and the aerosol concentrations at the surface. Processes and parameters are identified which deserve further research. The AeroCom all-models-average emissions are dominated by the mass of sea salt (SS), followed by dust (DU), sulfate (SO 4 ), particulate organic matter (POM), and finally black carbon (BC). Interactive parameterizations of the emissions and contrasting particles sizes of SS and DU lead generally to higher diversities of these species, and for total aerosol. The lower diversity of the emissions of the fine aerosols, BC, POM, and SO 4 , is due to the use of similar emission inventories, and does therefore not necessarily indicate a better understanding of their sources. The diversity of SO 4 -sources is mainly caused by the disagreement on depositional loss of precursor gases and on chemical production. The diversities of the emissions are passed on to the burdens, but the latter are also strongly affected by the model-specific treatments of transport and aerosol processes. The burdens of dry masses decrease from largest to smallest: DU, SS, SO 4 , POM, and BC. The all-models-average residence time is shortest for SS with about half a day, followed by SO 4 and DU with four days, and POM and BC with six and seven days, respectively. The wet deposition rate is controlled by the solubility and increases from DU, BC, POM to SO 4 and SS. It is the dominant sink for SO 4 , BC, and POM, and contributes about one third to the total removal of SS and DU species. For SS and DU we find high diversities for the removal rate coefficients and deposition pathways. Models do neither agree on the split between wet and dry deposition, nor on that between sedimentation and other dry deposition processes. We diagnose an extremely high diversity for the uptake of ambient water vapor that influences the particle size and thus the sink rate coefficients. Furthermore, we find little agreement among the model results for the partitioning of wet removal into scavenging by convective and stratiform rain. Large differences exist for aerosol dispersal both in the vertical and in the horizontal direction. In some models, a minimum of total aerosol concentration is simulated at the surface. Aerosol dispersal is most pronounced for SO 4 and BC and lowest for SS. Diversities are higher for meridional than for vertical dispersal, they are similar for the individual species and highest for SS and DU. For these two components we do not find a correlation between vertical and meridional aerosol dispersal. In addition the degree of dispersals of SS and DU is not related to their residence times. SO 4 , BC, and POM, however, show increased meridional dispersal in models with larger vertical dispersal, and dispersal is larger for longer simulated residence times.

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Analysis and quantification of the diversities of aerosol life cycles within AeroCom

A database of 15,617 point measurements of dimethylsulfide (DMS) in surface waters along with lesser amounts of data for aqueous and particulate dimethylsulfoniopropionate concentration, chlorophyll concentration, sea surface salinity and temperature, and wind speed has been assembled. The database was processed to create a series of climatological annual and monthly 1°×1° latitude-longitude squares of data. The results were compared to published fields of geophysical and biological parameters. No significant correlation was found between DMS and these parameters, and no simple algorithm could be found to create monthly fields of sea surface DMS concentration based on these parameters. Instead, an annual map of sea surface DMS was produced using an algorithm similar to that employed by Conkright et al. [1994]. In this approach, a first-guess field of DMS sea surface concentration measurements is created and then a correction to this field is generated based on actual measurements. Monthly sea surface grids of DMS were obtained using a similar scheme, but the sparsity of DMS measurements made the method difficult to implement. A scheme was used which projected actual data into months of the year where no data were otherwise present.

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A global database of sea surface dimethylsulfide (DMS) measurements and a procedure to predict sea surface DMS as a function of latitude, longitude, and month

J. P. Putaud

Papers

A global database of sea surface dimethylsulfide (DMS) measurements and a procedure to predict sea surface DMS as a function of latitude, longitude, and month