Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

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A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

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Ecological responses to recent climate change.

Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

Pollinators are a key component of global biodiversity, providing vital ecosystem services to crops and wild plants. There is clear evidence of recent declines in both wild and domesticated pollinators, and parallel declines in the plants that rely upon them. Here we describe the nature and extent of reported declines, and review the potential drivers of pollinator loss, including habitat loss and fragmentation, agrochemicals, pathogens, alien species, climate change and the interactions between them. Pollinator declines can result in loss of pollination services which have important negative ecological and economic impacts that could significantly affect the maintenance of wild plant diversity, wider ecosystem stability, crop production, food security and human welfare.

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Global pollinator declines: trends, impacts and drivers.

Mean global temperatures have risen this century, and further warming is predicted to continue for the next 50-100 years(1-3) Some migratory species can respond rapidly to yearly climate variation ...

Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming

We investigate the niche separation in space and time between the Palearctic sister species Leptidea sinapis and L. reali (Lepidoptera, Pieridae) in central Sweden. Using field sampling, we show that L. reali is a habitat specialist confined to meadows, whereas L. sinapis is a habitat generalist also inhabiting forests. This difference in habitat utilization was corroborated by experimental release of laboratory-reared L. sinapis and L. reali in two adjacent forest and meadow habitats during their natural flight period; virtually all recaptured L. reali that were released in the forest were later caught in the meadow, whereas L. sinapis shifted equally often from meadow to forest as in the opposite direction. In the field, both species fly in May–June, but L. reali appears on average a week earlier in spring and has a substantial second generation in July, whereas L. sinapis is practically univoltine. When overwintered pupae were incubated under identical conditions in the laboratory, females did, however, not differ in phenology, and L. sinapis males actually emerged earlier than L. reali males. When larvae were reared at 23°C on the host plant Lotus corniculatus at a range of daylengths, both species produced a substantial proportion of directly developing individuals at an 18.5 h daylength or longer. When reared at 23°C and a 22 h daylength, L. reali showed an overall higher propensity to develop directly than L. sinapis on plant species originating from both the meadow and the forest habitat. Both Leptidea species showed a lower propensity to enter direct development on forest associated plants than on meadow associated plants. Hence, we suggest that the difference in phenology and voltinism between L. sinapis and L. reali is largely the result of environmentally implemented ecological pleiotropic effects caused by the between-species difference in habitat preference.

http://www.nymphalidae.net/Fribergetal2008.pdf

Niche separation in space and time between two sympatric sister species—a case of ecological pleiotropy

Checklist of Finnish Lepidoptera — Suomen perhosten luettelo

For the first time ever, the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List Index for habitat types was calculated for an entire country, Finland. The RLIs were based on species threat assessments from 2000 and 2010 and included habitat definitions for all 10,131 species of 12 organism groups. The RLIs were bootstrapped to track statistically significant changes. The RLI changes of species grouped by habitats were negative for all habitat types except for forests and rural biotopes which showed a stable trend. Trends of beetles and true bugs were positive in rural and forest habitats. Other 16 observed trends of species group and habitat combinations were negative. Several trends observed were in accordance with studies focusing on particular taxa and habitats, and drivers for their change. This study demonstrates the usefulness of the RLI as a tool for observing habitat change based on species threat assessment data.

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Application of the Red List Index as an indicator of habitat change

We report observations on the larval gregarious behaviour, host plant use and parasitoids of six species of melitaeine butterfly in the Russian Republic of Buryatia. We observed post-diapause larvae in two habitats, steppe and taiga forest region. Five species were found in the steppe region: Euphydryas aurinia davidi, Melitaea cinxia, M. latonigena, M. didymoides and M. phoebe. Three species (M. cinxia, M. latonigena and M. didymoides) fed on the same host plant, Veronica incana (Plantaginaceae). Euphydryas aurinia larvae were found on Scabiosa comosa (Dipsacaceae) and M. phoebe larvae on Stemmacantha uniflora (Asteraceae). Three species were found in the taiga region (M. cinxia, M. latonigena and M. centralasiae), of which the first two fed on Veronica incana. Five species of hymenopteran parasitoids and three species of dipteran parasitoids were reared from the butterfly larvae of five species.

/pdf/natural-history-of-some-siberian-melitaeine-butterfly-2fo7kp8kzc.pdf

Jaakko Kullberg

Papers

Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming

Niche separation in space and time between two sympatric sister species—a case of ecological pleiotropy

Checklist of Finnish Lepidoptera — Suomen perhosten luettelo

Application of the Red List Index as an indicator of habitat change

Natural history of some Siberian melitaeine butterfly species (Nymphalidae: Melitaeini) and their parasitoids.