Applied flood risk analyses, especially in urban areas, very often pose the question how detailed the analysis needs to be in order to give a realistic figure of the expected risk. The methods used in research and practical applications range from very basic approaches with numerous simplifying assumptions up to very sophisticated, data and calculation time demanding applications both on the hazard and on the vulnerability part of the risk. In order to shed some light on the question of required model complexity in flood risk analyses and outputs sufficiently fulfilling the task at hand, a number of combinations of models of different complexity both on the hazard and on the vulnerability side were tested in a case study. The different models can be organized in a model matrix of different complexity levels: On the hazard side, the approaches/models selected were (A) linear interpolation of gauge water levels and intersection with a digital elevation model (DEM), (B) a mixed 1D/2D hydraulic model with simplifying assumptions (LISFLOOD-FP) and (C) a Saint-Venant 2D zero-inertia hyperbolic hydraulic model considering the built environment and infrastructure. On the vulnerability side, the models used for the estimation of direct damage to residential buildings are in order of increasing complexity: (I) meso-scale stage-damage functions applied to CORINE land cover data, (II) the rule-based meso-scale model FLEMOps+ using census data on the municipal building stock and CORINE land cover data and (III) a rule-based micro-scale model applied to a detailed building inventory. Besides the inundation depths, the latter two models consider different building types and qualities as well as the level of private precaution and contamination of the floodwater. The models were applied in a municipality in east Germany, Eilenburg. It suffered extraordinary damage during the flood of August 2002, which was well documented as were the inundation extent and depths. These data provide an almost unique data set for the validation of flood risk analyses. The analysis shows that the combination of the 1D/2D model and the meso-scale damage model FLEMOps+ performed best and provide the best compromise between data requirements, simulation effort, and an acceptable accuracy of the results. The more detailed approaches suffered from complex model set-up, high data requirements, and long computation times.

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Flood risk analyses—how detailed do we need to be?

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Cities and Climate Change: Urban Sustainability and Global Environmental Governance (review)

Flood regulating ecosystem services—Mapping supply and demand, in the Etropole municipality, Bulgaria

We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals—as Western European international tourist demand falls—but later increase numbers—as tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts is similar to the international one: tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental interior warms faster than the coast: tourism shifts south.

The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: A simulation study

Planning for Climate Change: Strategies for Mitigation and Adaptation for Spatial Planners

The web site provides the possibility to download and examine the most recent documents produced by finalised and ongoing ESPON projects. This basic report exists only in an electronic version. Annexes Annex 1: Bibliography Annex 2: Further details on the methods and results of the exposure analysis Annex 3: Tentative list of indicators Annex 4: Data availability review for Balkan countries and Turkey

ESPON Climate Climate Change and Territorial Effects on Regions and Local Economies

Economic risk maps of floods and earthquakes for European regions

TAPIR--Finnish national geochemical baseline database.

This study provides an overview on the development of the guidelines and legislation related to soil contamination in Finland, with the main focus on geochemical baselines. The use of geochemical baseline surveys in the assessment soil contamination in Finland and in some other countries is briefly discussed and the current practices in Finland are presented. Finally, the geochemical baselines in the assessment of soil contamination in Finland are outlined with suggestions for further applications and recommendations for future research needs. The growing demand to increase sustainable land management in urban areas has involved various applications of geochemical surveys. Soil contamination was acknowledged as a leading environmental problem in the industrialized countries in the 1980s. The Government of Finland highlighted the importance of studying the level of soil contamination in Finland in 1988. The practices and guidelines for the assessment of soil contamination have been further developed by the environmental authorities and other interest groups, and in 2007, a Government Decree on the Assessment of Soil Contamination and Remediation Needs (214/2007) was issued. According to the Government Decree (214/2007), the assessment of soil contamination shall be based on a site-specific estimate of the risks to human health and the environment. Three categories of soil screening values, the threshold value and the lower and the upper guideline value, are introduced in the Government Decree (214/2007). The threshold value is used as a trigger value, which if exceeded indicates the necessity for further investigations on potential contamination. The geochemical baseline concentration, however, is regarded as the assessment threshold in areas with a baseline concentration higher than the threshold value. The Government Decree (214/2007) refers both to the natural geological background concentrations of elements and the diffuse anthropogenic input with the term “geochemical baseline”. For estimating the regional or local baseline concentration the upper limit of geochemical baseline variation for potentially harmful elements can be used. Today, geochemical background information is available from national and regional geochemical mapping surveys, as well as from targeted geochemical baseline surveys, from which geochemical baseline mapping of sub-urban and urban areas has had a special focus on environmental applications and land use planning. The geochemical baseline studies provide information on baseline concentrations for remediation projects, land extraction, land use planning and other urban functions. Furthermore, they provide information for mineral exploration, for studies on the baseline status of the environment, as well as for environment impact assessment. The baseline information can also be applied in multidisciplinary studies such as the protection of human health. The main sample parent material used in the geochemical baseline studies is minerogenic soil. Both composite and single samples are used. Single samples are often used when the data are targeted for use in calculating statistics for different soil parent materials and land use patterns. The sampling depth in geochemical mapping is traditionally quite variable, but in urban geochemical baseline studies the main focus is on topsoil. In Finland, the guidelines are given for soil contamination analysis and they are also followed in geochemical baseline surveys. For determining the concentrations of inorganic elements, the samples are to be sieved to the <2 mm fraction following aqua regia extraction or strong nitric acid leach. Different gas chromatographic methods are recommended to be used to analyse organic compounds. For risk assessment purposes, as well as for tracing the origin of elevated concentrations, i.e. whether it is anthropogenic or geogenic, weaker extraction methods provide additional information to be applied in data analysis. The utilization of geochemical baseline information is important when assessing the possible soil contamination and remediation needs. Regional variation due to differences in the geological environment can be high and should be taken into consideration in contamination assessment. Various sampling materials may reveal different geochemical baseline levels. Finnish legislation supports the use of geochemical baseline information, and the Finnish national geochemical baseline database (TAPIR) provides end-users with nationally comparable and scientifically sound geochemical baseline data that enhance the rationality and transparency of decision-making.

Geochemical baselines in the assessment of soil contamination in Finland

Vietnam is considered as one of the countries to be severely affected by climate change and thus response to climate change is of crucial importance to Vietnam, particularly in coastal areas. Rises in average temperatures have been observed over the last decades, as well as substantial changes to precipitation patters. The average temperatures have been rising and the total precipitation has increased, especially during the rainy seasons, which is important for flood water management. In northern Vietnam the precipitation during the dry seasons has decreased, which poses important challenges to water management.

Jaana Jarva

Papers

ESPON Climate Climate Change and Territorial Effects on Regions and Local Economies

Economic risk maps of floods and earthquakes for European regions

TAPIR--Finnish national geochemical baseline database.

Geochemical baselines in the assessment of soil contamination in Finland

Climate Change in Vietnam