Scale and scope: the dynamics of industrial capitalism

Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective survey of the most important theoretical developments and empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning literature, with a distinct focus on forecasting applications. Volatility is inherently latent, and Section 1 begins with a brief intuitive account of various key volatility concepts. Section 2 then discusses a series of different economic situations in which volatility plays a crucial role, ranging from the use of volatility forecasts in portfolio allocation to density forecasting in risk management. Sections 3-5 present a variety of alternative procedures for univariate volatility modeling and forecasting based on the GARCH, stochastic volatility and realized volatility paradigms, respectively. Section 6 extends the discussion to the multivariate problem of forecasting conditional covariances and correlations, and Section 7 discusses volatility forecast evaluation methods in both univariate and multivariate cases. Section 8 concludes briefly.

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Volatility and correlation forecasting

This paper provides an integrated overview of theoretical and empirical explanations used in the applied literature on regional unemployment differentials. On the basis of 41 empirical studies, four different model types covering nine theoretical constructs of regional unemployment determination and 13 sets of explanatory variables are identified. The overall conclusion is that theoretical and empirical explanations help to reduce the weaknesses in each other. While theory is found to predict that the regional unemployment rate depends on labour supply factors (a collection of factors which affect natural changes in the labour force, labour force participation, migration and commuting), labour demand factors and wage-setting factors, it is the empirical studies that provide a more profound understanding of the explanatory variables involved. Conversely, whereas most empirical studies provide clear-cut explanations for the signs of the explanatory variables, it is theory that shows that some of these explanations might be out of proportion. By grouping many studies together, this paper shows that there are indeed clear-cut trends.

The Mystery of Regional Unemployment Differentials: Theoretical and Empirical Explanations

The sustainability of fiscal deficits has been receiving increasing attention. The issue is paramount for the newly formed euro area and this is one of the motivations of this paper. In order to assess the sustainability of budget deficits, co-integration tests between public expenditures and public revenues, allowing for structural breaks, are performed for the EU countries for the 1970-2003 period. The “unpleasant” empirical results show that with few exceptions fiscal policy may not have been sustainable. EU governments therefore could risk becoming inherently highly indebted, even if the debt-to-GDP ratios seemed to be somehow stabilising at the end of the 1990s. (JEL: H62, H63)

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Fiscal Sustainability: the Unpleasant European Case *

Measuring efficiency in the National Basketball Association

The sustainability of budget deficits of the G-7 countries is examined in this paper. Following the approach taken by Hakkio and Rush it is found that in the case of Germany it appears for each dollar increase in expenditures, revenues increase by an equal amount. For France, Japan, and Italy (real per GDP measure) the budget deficits of these countries may not be sustainable due to the lack of cointegration. In the cases of Canada, Italy (real levels and real per capita measures), United Kingdom, and the United States (real levels and real per capita) cointegration is present between revenues and expenditures. However, the estimated coefficients on expenditures for these countries are significantly less than one which suggests that government spending is growing faster than government revenue.

International evidence on the sustainability of budget deficits

It is well known that volatility persistence is overestimated if regime shifts are not accounted for in the standard GARCH model. This research detects time periods of sudden changes in variance using the iterated cumulated sums of squares (ICSS) algo- rithm. Using weekly data for the Canadian stock market indicates that after accounting for endogenously determined volatility shifts in the GARCH model, the estimated persistence in volatility is significantly reduced. This casts some doubt on previous findings that volatility in financial markets is highly persistent. The findings have impor- tant implications for investors and financial market participants. JEL classification: G1

Measuring volatility persistence in the presence of sudden changes in the variance of Canadian stock returns

This study performs tests of the random walk hypothesis for international commercial real estate markets utilizing stock market indices of real estate share prices for three geographical regions: Europe, Asia and North America. The augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests and Cochrane variance ratio test find that each of these markets (as well as associated broader stock markets) exhibits random walk behavior. Moreover, a non-parametric runs test provides support for weak-form market efficiency in the real estate markets. In addition, Johansen-Juselius co-integration analysis reveals that all three markets appear co-integrated and share a common long-run stochastic trend. Results of co-integration analyses and vector error correction models suggest that diversification benefits through international real estate securities can only be achieved in the short run.

Random Walks and Market Efficiency: Evidence from International Real Estate Markets

This paper examines the temporal relationship between revenues and expenditures for the forty-eight contiguous states over an annual period 1942 to 1992. Using an error-correction model, we find that the tax-spend hypothesis is supported for twenty-four states. The spend-tax hypothesis is valid for eight states while the fiscal synchronization hypothesis is supported for eleven states. The remaining five states failed the diagnostic tests for error-correction modeling.

James E. Payne

Papers

Measuring efficiency in the National Basketball Association

International evidence on the sustainability of budget deficits

Measuring volatility persistence in the presence of sudden changes in the variance of Canadian stock returns

Random Walks and Market Efficiency: Evidence from International Real Estate Markets

The tax-spend debate: Time series evidence from state budgets*