Statistical method for testing the neutral mutation hypothesis by DNA polymorphism.

Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

/pdf/a-globally-coherent-fingerprint-of-climate-change-impacts-5duzh6vc6b.pdf

A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

/pdf/ecological-responses-to-recent-climate-change-5dddm9xeiv.pdf

Ecological responses to recent climate change.

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur. Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed. Model output has been analyzed that shows changes in extreme events for future climates, such as increases in extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures, and increases in intense precipitation events. In addition, the societal infrastructure is becoming more sensitive to weather and climate extremes, which would be exacerbated by climate change. In wild plants and animals, climate-induced extinctions, distributional and phenological changes, and species' range shifts are being documented at an increasing rate. Several apparently gradual biological changes are linked to responses to extreme weather and climate events.

https://www7.nau.edu/mpcer/direnet/publications/publications_e/files/Easterling_et_al_2000.pdf

Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts

In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wideranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.

/pdf/climate-change-impacts-on-marine-ecosystems-mu6opf56n1.pdf

Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems

Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH

Changes in the invertebrate fauna of a California rocky intertidal community between the
 period 1931 to 1933 and the period 1993 to 1994 indicate that species9 ranges shifted
 northward, consistent with predictions of change associated with climate warming. Of 45
 invertebrate species, the abundances of eight of nine southern species increased and the
 abundances of five of eight northern species decreased. No trend was evident for
 cosmopolitan species. Annual mean shoreline ocean temperatures at the site increased by
 0.75°C during the past 60 years, and mean summer maximum temperatures from 1983 to 1993
 were 2.2°C warmer than for the period 1921 to 1931.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/267/5198/672.full.pdf

Climate-related, long-term faunal changes in a california rocky intertidal community.

Ocean acidification (OA), a consequence of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, poses a serious threat to marine organisms in tropical, open-ocean, coastal, deep-sea, and high-latitude sea ecosystems. The diversity of taxonomic groups that precipitate calcium carbonate from seawater are at particularly high risk. Here we review the rapidly expanding literature concerning the biological and ecological impacts of OA on calcification, using a cross-scale, process-oriented approach. In comparison to calcification, we find that areas such as fertilization, early life-history stages, and interaction with synergistic stressors are understudied. Although understanding the long-term consequences of OA are critical, available studies are largely short-term experiments that do not allow for tests of long-term acclimatization or adaptation. Future research on the phenotypic plasticity of contemporary organisms and interpretations of performance in the context of current environmental heterogeneity of pCO2 will gre...

The Effect of Ocean Acidification on Calcifying Organisms in Marine Ecosystems: An Organism to Ecosystem Perspective

Changes in the abundance of macroinvertebrate species documented in a rocky intertidal community between surveys in 1931-1933 and 1993-1996 are consistent with the predicted effects of recent climate warming. We resampled 57 0.84-M2 plots of an intertidal transect first surveyed by W. G. Hewatt at Hopkins Marine Station (HMS), Pacific Grove, California, between 1931 and 1933. Replicating precisely the location of the plots and methodology used by Hewatt, we documented changes in the abundances of 46 invertebrate species, indicating that this intertidal community changed significantly during the 60 yr between surveys. Changes in abundance were related to geographic ranges of species. Most southern species (10 of 11) increased in abundance, whereas most northern species (5 of 7) decreased. Cosmopolitan species showed no clear trend, with 12 increasing and 16 decreasing. Although Hewatt did not record algal species as thoroughly as inver- tebrates, we were able to document a massive decline in cover of Pelvetia compressa, a cosmopolitan fucoid alga that is typically more common in the southern part of its range. Shoreline ocean temperature, taken daily at HMS, warmed by 0.790C during this 60-yr period, with average summer temperatures up to 1.940C warmer in the 13 yr preceding our study than in the 13 yr preceding Hewatt's. The hypothesis that-climatic warming drove the observed range-related community shifts is supported further by historical records and data from other investigators. Several alternative hypotheses to explain changes in the invertebrate community at HMS, including habitat changes, anthropogenic effects, indirect biological interactions, El Nifio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, and upwelling are considered to be less important than climate change. Changes in species' abundances over a short period (3 yr) were relatively small compared to large species shifts over 60 yr and were unrelated to geographic range of the species, indicating that short-term population fluctuations play a relatively minor role in the long-term community changes that we observed.

James P. Barry

Papers

Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems

Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH

Climate-related, long-term faunal changes in a california rocky intertidal community.

The Effect of Ocean Acidification on Calcifying Organisms in Marine Ecosystems: An Organism to Ecosystem Perspective

Climate‐related change in an intertidal community over short and long time scales